Poor polls continue for both federal and Victorian Labor

There have been three recent federal polls. The combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition was down one point to 47% in Resolve, up three points to 53% in Redbridge and steady at 50% in YouGov. Anthony Albanese’s ratings are very poor in all three polls. Economic perceptions appear to be hurting Labor. It’s less than three weeks until the November 28 Victorian election. Recent polls all have the Coalition gaining to open a large lead over Labor. In preliminary results for Saturday’s New Zealand election, right-wing parties have a combined 67 of the 131 seats, a majority. Parliament has been expanded from its nominal 120 seats to 131 due to “overhangs”. Democrats are likely to win the US Senate by 56–44 over Republicans in last Tuesday’s midterm elections. They lead in the national House popular vote by nearly 13 points. Federal Resolve poll A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 2–7 from a sample of 2,250, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down one since the early October Resolve poll), One Nation 25% (steady), the Coalition 22% (down one), the Greens 13% (up one), independents 6% (steady) and others 5% (steady). Albanese’s net approval was down four points to -22 (56% poor, 34% good). Angus Taylor’s was up two points to +9 (42% good, 33% poor). Pauline Hanson’s was down one point to +3 (45% good, 42% poor). In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 29% (down three), Taylor 25% (up three) and Hanson 24% (down two). For Labor politicians, Mark Butler was at +1 net likeability, Richard Marles at -3, Penny Wong at -4, Tony Burke at -5, Chris Bowen at -9 and Jim Chalmers at -11. Nationals leader Matt Canavan was at +6, One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce at -2 and Greens leader David Shoebridge at -5. On what is most responsible for rising living costs, 42% blamed the federal government, 26% global factors, 7% the Reserve Bank and 5% state and territory governments. Redbridge poll A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted November 2–6 from a sample of 1,005, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (down one since the early October Redbridge poll), Labor 26% (down two), the Coalition 25% (up four), the Greens 13% (up two) and all Others 8% (down three). This is the highest Coalition support in a Redbridge poll since December 2025, while Labor is at a record low. By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a two-point gain for Labor. The Coalition led Labor by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, the Coalition led Labor by 51–49, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Albanese’s net favourability was up four points from a record low to -23, Taylor’s was up one point to -5, Hanson’s was down four points to -14, Shoebridge was at -12 and Chalmers was up one point to -22. In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 30% (down one), Hanson 24% (down two) and Taylor 16% (up one). Combining One Nation and the Coalition against Labor and the Greens, the right led by 44–27 on cost of living, 36–34 on healthcare, 36–29 on housing, 52–24 on immigration, 43–27 on the economy and by 45–24 on national security. The left’s one lead was on climate change by 43–23. There hasn’t been much movement on the issues since October. YouGov poll A national YouGov poll for News24, conducted October 27 to November 3 from a sample of 1,500, gave One Nation 27% of the primary vote (steady since the mid-October YouGov poll), Labor 25% (up one from a record low), the Coalition 23% (steady), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 5% and others 7%. By respondent preferences, Labor and the Coalition remained tied at 50–50, equal to Labor’s low this term. Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Albanese’s net approval was up one point from a record low to -29 (62% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied). Taylor’s net approval was up two points to -12 (48% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Taylor led Albanese as better PM by 41–39. reversing a 41–39 Albanese lead. It’s the first time Taylor has led in this poll. Albanese led Hanson by 51–39 (previously 50–42). Victorian Lighthouse and Morgan polls A Victorian Lighthouse poll for The Herald Sun, conducted October 19 to November 1 from a sample of 1,289, gave the Coalition 31% of the primary vote, One Nation 23%, Labor 22%, the Greens 14% and all Others 10%. No two-party estimate was given. Labor premier Ben Carroll’s net favourability was -21. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was +9. This poll will be updated weekly until the election. The Poll Bludger said this poll is being conducted by “News Corp’s internal research and data analytics operation”. A SMS Victorian Morgan poll, conducted October 26–29 from a sample of 3,610, gave the Coalition 29.5% of the primary vote (up 3.5 since an unreleased early October SMS Morgan poll), Labor 22.5% (steady), One Nation 22% (down three), the Greens 12.5% (down 1.5), independents 7.5% (up 0.5) and others 6% (up 0.5). By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 56–44, a one-point gain for the Coalition and a five-point gain for them since the early August Morgan poll. Labor led One Nation by 54.5–45.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. As no two-party estimate was reported from the Lighthouse poll, I haven’t included it in the poll graph below. Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in Victorian polls. The recent trend in all Victorian polls has been to the Coalition, and they have opened a large lead over Labor. Well-overhung NZ Parliament and US midterm updates I wrote about Saturday’s New Zealand election for the NZ edition of The Conversation. Parliament has a nominal 120 seats, but both the conservative National and pro-Māori Te Pāti Māori won more single-member electorates than their entitlements. On the preliminary results, there will be a total 11-seat “overhang” with right-wing parties having 67 of the 131 seats, a majority. Final results won’t be released until November 27. In previous elections, left-wing parties have gained from the preliminary results. If this occurs, the combined right could fall below a majority, leaving the centrist Opportunity with the balance of power. In developments from last Tuesday’s US midterm elections, Democrats are likely to win the Senate by 56–44 over Republicans, a nine-seat gain, as their lead in Mississippi’s Senate contest has increased to nearly 2,600 votes. In the House of Representatives, Democrats lead in called races by 254–162 with 19 uncalled. The Cook Political Report has a House popular vote tracker, with Democrats leading by 55.7–42.8, a 12.9-point margin that will expand further as Democratic strongholds like California count slowly. I had live coverage of the NZ election for The Poll Bludger.