Europe’s wildfire devastation could almost triple, new research finds

Wildfires could burn nearly three times as much of Europe each year by the end of the century. That is the conclusion of a study published on Thursday (20 August) by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said Maik Billing, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. Under a high-emissions pathway, annual burned area rises by around 192 percent, the modelling found.Even on a low-emissions pathway, equivalent to roughly 1.8 degrees Celsius of warming, wildfires would ravage a surface area 39 percent larger by the end of the century than they currently do. The researchers came to the figures by comparing projected averages for 2070-2100 against a modelled 2000-2030 baseline and ran two separate fire models across five climate projections. “Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming,” said Billing. “But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent [aslo] areas that to date have not experienced many fires,” he also said, referring to places like western Germany and the Netherlands. The worst hit regions in Europe would be the Mediterranean, but other local wildfire hotspots would likely emerge in the foothills of mountainous areas like the Alps, Pyrenees and Carpathians. More investment needed A second modelling effort, developed by co-authors from the Senckenberg institute, factors in ways humans can actually prevent the worst case scenarios from happening. This could be done by developing better systems of prevention and detections but also improved ways of fighting fires when they’ve already spread.Improvement in these areas could reduce burned area by 92 percent in a world with 1.8°C warming and by 72 percent in a world where it is 3.6°C hotter. "We need to invest more. If Europe increases investment in training fire crews, proper equipment and good coordination, our projections show that this can make a significant difference,” said Senckenberg scientist and co-author Thomas Hickler. But even with sustained investment, fire activity still increases across about 55 percent, the authors said. “If fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down,” said Hickler. So far, 550,000 hectares have burned across the EU which is more than twice the size of Luxembourg. It is also two and a half times the 20-year average for this point in the year, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS).France, one of the worst hit countries, faces an estimated €15bn in damages. "The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," said Kirsten Thonicke, a co-author of the PIK study. She also said that investment in firefighting methods alone isn’t enough, and that stopping further global warming by reducing emissions remains essential. "With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size. So, reducing emissions is absolutely essential,” she said.