This Is Not a War for Ukrainian Territory, It Is a War Against the West

For some time now, we have regularly seen reports of more territory retaken by Ukraine, as well as large numbers of occupying troops being taken prisoner. Liberated villages and prisoners of war are, of course, good news, but unfortunately they do not change the overall situation. Every square kilometer retaken and restored to Ukraine’s territorial integrity is undoubtedly a positive development. But it is important to remember that this is not a war over territory.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The full-scale war that has been ongoing since 2022 is not a war over Ukrainian territory, but a war being fought on Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin needs territorial gains to justify its policy and present them as evidence that it is achieving its stated objectives. But in reality, the goal is to bring Ukraine under political subordination. Such subordination does not necessarily mean full occupation, nor does it have to happen within a short period of time. Putin has consistently pursued what he outlined in Munich in 2007 and Bucharest in 2008. The objective is to rebuild a sphere of influence across the territory of the former Soviet Union, whose collapse the Russian dictator considers one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century. The means to the end The Kremlin is pursuing its objectives consistently and, unlike the West, is not constrained by democratic processes, which simply makes such a policy easier to implement. Russia has a wide range of means at its disposal – from political influence, disinformation, sabotage and economic pressure to drones and missiles, or the air terror experienced by residents of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Other Topics of Interest US Envoys Pressure Kyiv on Refinery Strikes US Envoys Witkoff and Kushner press Kyiv to halt refinery strikes as Trump strikes a diesel deal with Putin. Turning Ukraine’s capital into a place that is increasingly difficult to live in, violating the airspace of NATO countries and Moldova, and undermining confidence in the functioning of military alliances are all tools aimed at spreading fear, weakening unity and polarizing societies in countries that Moscow considers adversaries, or even enemies. The warnings coming from intelligence agencies of NATO countries about an expected escalation by Russia and the possibility of sabotage on a larger scale than before are perhaps the clearest evidence of this. Russia’s goals and the United States Will Russia succeed in achieving its objectives? Much depends on the determination of the West and Ukraine. One of the key factors is US policy towards Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Unfortunately, for some time now we have seen considerable inconsistency. On the one hand, there have been announcements of permanent US troop bases in Poland, the maintenance of a military presence in Lithuania, and Trump’s signature on sanctions introduced by the late Lindsey Graham. On the other hand, we still do not know whether these sanctions will actually be used against Russia. Washington has eased some sanctions, including those affecting Belarusian potash fertilizers. The talks between Witkoff, Kushner and Putin also make it difficult to remain optimistic, without even mentioning the reported idea of reopening the Nord Stream pipelines. Not to mention the absurdity of blaming Ukraine for the ongoing fuel crisis. How this should be interpreted remains an open question. Some conclusions can nevertheless be drawn. The US military presence in NATO’s eastern-flank countries constitutes a red line being drawn for Russia by Washington. At the same time, the United States does not rule out economic cooperation, including in areas such as fuel or Belarusian potash fertilizers. Maintaining only very limited support for Ukraine, meanwhile, could be interpreted by the Kremlin as a green light to continue its actions in Ukraine. Russia has no genuine desire for peace talks, and Washington is aware of this. It is also aware of the problems Ukraine may face during the coming winter. In a sense, this can be seen as a carrot-and-stick approach: the US military presence in Eastern Europe will be maintained, while there is also an incentive to pursue common business interests. The United States may be seeking to de-escalate the situation in order to maintain peace and stability in European NATO countries. That would, however, be naïve. Russia operates according to a completely different logic, one that goes beyond what Europe or the United States would consider rational. The clearest evidence of this is the very fact that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Strength through resilience and partnerships The fact that this is a war being fought on Ukrainian territory, rather than a war over Ukrainian territory, means that it is also a conflict involving the West – and particularly NATO and EU countries on the eastern flank. This is where we are seeing the greatest number of hostile acts of sabotage and other forms of hybrid activity. Bringing Ukraine into a state of subordination or reducing it to a severely weakened condition is one objective. Weakening, or even dismantling, Western alliances is another. A conventional war in Europe currently appears highly unlikely. But it is important to remember that war itself is an extension of politics and a tool for pursuing political objectives. There is little doubt that Russia will continue to pursue its objectives with the same consistency it has demonstrated so far. Tanks and missiles are means to an end, just as sabotage, disinformation, economic influence and acts of subversion are. Countering this requires genuine unity within NATO and the EU, which remains evident, as well as continued support for Ukraine. That support depends both on its Western partners and on the foreign policy pursued by Kyiv. In this respect, it would also be worthwhile to avoid conflicts with partners that have so far proved reliable. Only decisive and unambiguous action can create the conditions for an adequate response to Russia and help prevent further escalation. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.