Tennessee Poll: Marsha Blackburn Has Commanding Lead in Governor's Race

A new poll from the Beacon Center in Tennessee finds Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is well on her way to the Governor’s Mansion in two months. Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green in the race to succeed two-term Gov. Bill Lee, with a 55 percent to 34 percent margin among likely voters in the Volunteer State. In a summary, Beacon wrote of Blackburn her “Big lead comes after a hard-fought and divisive Republican primary against Congressman John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts that left some bruised feelings within the party, but any lingering divisions have not yet dented her standing heading into November.” The poll also surveyed the U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw in a rematch of their 2020 contest. The race has an even wider spread than the one for governor, with Hagerty at 58 percent to Bradshaw’s 33 percent. Hagerty’s defeated Bradshaw by 27 points in 2020. Turning to approval ratings, Beacon found a downward trend for President Donald Trump and the Republican brand.President Trump’s approval rating has gone underwater for the first time ever inBeacon Pollhistory; with 48 percent approval and 51 percent disapproving. Beacon CEO Justin Owen stated of the finding, “This is a substantial development in a deep red state with a number of potentially competitive races this year. While Trump is barely underwater with voters, this is a monumental shift from his 30-point victory here just two years ago.” The poll took an early look at hypothetical 2028 presidential primary matchups Vice President JD Vance and failed 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris dominate in hypothetical 2028 presidential primaries in the state. Vance dominated the field among Tennessee Republican primary voters, leading with 56 percent of the vote. Secretary of StateMarco Rubio’s recorded 22 percent of voters and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was in third with 11 percent. On the Democrat side, Harris was the first choice with just 30 percent, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (18 percent), former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (11 percent), Democrat socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10 percent), and Sen. Mark Kelly (8 percent). On the issue of artificial intelligence (AI)and data centers, Tennesseans reported largely bipartisan approval of major AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, or Copilot, with 54 percent approving and 34 percent disapproving. Among Republicans they had a +26 percent approval, among Democrats it was +10 percent, and Independents were closer to the Republican approval at +21 percent. However, on the topic of data centers, voters did not have accurate information in their opinions. “Facilities now commonly called data centers have existed in some form for more than half a century, yet only 4 percent of Tennesseans correctly say ‘more than 50 years,’ while a plurality (38 percent) guessed they’ve only existed within the past five years, and 31 percent say they’re not sure,” the Beacon poll found in its results. “The truth of the matter is that, regardless of your personal views, data centers and AI are here to stay,” said Owen. “With so much misinformation circulating about them, we wanted to see how Tennesseans really feel about their impact before policymakers at all levels of government rush to respond with potential regulations.”