Stars align for Frydenberg comeback. That could eclipse Taylor

OpinionChief political commentatorSeptember 4, 2026 — 5:00amSeptember 4, 2026 — 5:00amThis should have been a cracking week for the opposition, with house prices falling across the country, new economic data that showed real wages aren’t growing, the increasing chance of another interest rate rise, and Labor licking its wounds after losing a state seat to One Nation in Western Australia.Instead, despite its best efforts, the Coalition has been peripheral, offering criticism but barely cutting through.Inside the parliamentary Liberal Party there is a growing recognition among MPs that leader Angus Taylor simply isn’t shifting the dial. Support for the Coalition has gone backwards since Taylor took over, and it now trails both One Nation and Labor, despite growing antipathy towards Anthony Albanese and Labor.That was then: Josh Frydenberg, as treasurer in 2019, in parliament with Angus Taylor as energy minister.Alex EllinghausenAs one long-time member of the party puts it: “The conservatives have been fine with moderates losing their seats. But now they are going to get wiped out by Hanson. If we keep going this way, people like Tony Pasin, Rick Wilson and Garth Hamilton lose their seats to One Nation.”In June, it was Pasin, a close ally of Taylor, who called for the Liberals and One Nation to form a quasi-alliance and divvy up the seats they would contest. The idea was quickly shot down.Hamilton, to his credit, has decided to take the fight to One Nation despite its popularity in Queensland. However, Wilson, who has been in parliament since 2013, has barely been seen or heard.Liberal MPs are despairing because the list of alternative leaders is short, and all three possibles – Andrew Hastie, Tim Wilson and, at a stretch, Dan Tehan – have significant hurdles to clear.The best-placed person to lead the Liberal Party back to political relevance, if not government, may not even be in the parliament.Former Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg has still not said whether he will attempt a return to his seat of Kooyong at the next election. But he has left the door wide open for a return to politics.Since losing the seat in the 2022 election to teal MP Monique Ryan, Frydenberg has refrained from regular commentary on politics, the economy and his successor Jim Chalmers. He did speak out, forcefully and from the heart, after the massacre at Bondi last December, and he made a powerful documentary about antisemitism in Australia.Now the stars are beginning to align. On October 13, his new book, A Grateful Son, will be launched by former prime minister John Howard in Sydney. A bit over a month later, his former staffer Jess Wilson will lead the Victorian opposition to a state election that the party should win against a tired Labor machine, though the impact of One Nation will probably complicate things and cost at least a few state Nationals their seats.Frydenberg campaigned for Amelia Hamer, the candidate the Liberals stood against Ryan in 2025, and Kooyong remains one of the strongest branches in the state, with about 20 per cent of the Liberals’ total membership in Victoria living in the seat.The former treasurer still has the numbers in the seat if he wants to run at the next federal election, in 2028, but he has told colleagues he plans to make his decision as late as possible.If Wilson does manage to win enough seats to cobble together a state government, either with or without the support of One Nation, the odds of Frydenberg standing will greatly increase.But, mindful of not wanting to overshadow Taylor (or whoever is leading the party by then), Frydenberg will make his decision as late as possible into 2027. He’s also in no rush to leave his position as chairman of Goldman Sachs Australia, a top-tier global bank. A return to politics would also mean he could no longer coach his son’s footy team or watch his beloved Carlton.Despite his protestations that life is good, Frydenberg looks very much like someone preparing to re-enter public life. Keep a watching brief on his next move.Shadow cabinet minister Angie Bell said she had no insight into whether Frydenberg would attempt a comeback in 2028, but she spoke for many Liberals when she told me he would be welcomed back with open arms, given his years of service as treasurer and in other portfolios.“He is very well regarded in the Liberal Party, and the more high-quality people we have running, and winning seats, the better,” Bell said. “He’s a high-quality person.”In comparison, the man currently leading the Liberal Party and each of the three men who could potentially replace him – and yes, all are men – face difficulties.Taylor is working hard, but a second senior Liberal raises the lack of cut-through: “Labor is spending and taxing too much, they’re doing things like attacking the Reserve Bank and the Productivity Commission, and they’re getting away with it. We announced the indexation of tax rates, but now they barely talk about it as a point of difference.”Andrew Hastie has been spoken of in glowing terms as the next Liberal leader and very nearly put up his hand earlier this year when Sussan Ley was replaced by Taylor. However, One Nation is targeting Hastie’s federal seat of Canning. It just seized the state seat of Secret Harbour, part of which lies inside Canning, in the byelection last weekend. And many of the One Nation-adjacent supporters who Hastie had cultivated have now turned on him because of his testimony in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation trial.Never mind that he was required to by law, as former attorney-general George Brandis noted in his column this week, and that all Hastie did was tell the truth, which was backed up by other witnesses. No, apparently Hastie should have sworn an oath then lied about alleged war crimes.Whether Hastie can hold his seat is an open question. There are also questions over his lack of experience, given he has never served in cabinet.Tim Wilson, like Taylor, is working hard and helping drive policy development alongside Senator Andrew Bragg, whose recent speech at the National Press Club trampled across several colleagues’ portfolios and was seen as a dummy-spit in frustration over a lack of progress under Taylor. Wilson is well regarded but, again, seen as too inexperienced. He, too, has never served in cabinet.And while Dan Tehan has been a cabinet minister, he is not widely known by voters and is perhaps too vanilla to cut through.Which brings us back to Frydenberg. The abolition of the adjacent federal seat of Higgins before the last election meant many of the most Liberal parts of that seat were moved into Kooyong, strengthening the Liberals chances of winning it back.If the Victorian Liberals win the state election, keep your eye on Frydenberg. If he announces plans to run for Kooyong, it won’t be because he wants to be treasurer again.James Massola is chief political commentator.Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.From our partners