Taoiseach expands on initiative to examine Irish unity options

Ireland’s premier has proposed that a chairperson be appointed to oversee research into potential future scenarios including Irish unification within five years of a referendum.The Press Association understands that Micheál Martin shared a briefing document with his Fianna Fáil parliamentary party on Tuesday, outlining three points of focus in relation to issues involving the future of the island as well as North-South and Ireland/UK relations.The document says these “explain the priorities which will be followed in the coming period”.The Taoiseach’s briefing comes after the deputy premier and leader of Fine Gael Simon Harris announced earlier this year that his party will launch a “blueprint” for Irish unity in November.The Taoiseach’s briefing comes after the deputy premier and leader of Fine Gael Simon Harris announced earlier this year that his party will launch a “blueprint” for Irish unity in November (Brian Lawless/PA)PA WireOpposition parties have also piled on pressure for the Government to make preparations for a debate on a united Ireland.One of the three main points on the briefing Mr Martin gave to Fianna Fáil backbenchers was “a new initiative to define and develop evidence base for debate on future constitutional frameworks”.It poses the idea of establishing the Futures Study Initiative (FSI), which would gather informed cross-community voices to explore three potential future core scenarios for the island.The FSI will seek expert opinion and input from political parties and activist groups on constitutional and legal change, issues relating to the convergence on economy, health and education as well as matters pertaining to security, symbols and culture.The briefing documents, shared with backbenchers, said that “an informed and genuinely inclusive debate about the constitutional future of the island is essential”.Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald is among those in opposition parties who have piled on pressure for the Government to make preparations for a debate on a united Ireland (Liam McBurney/PA)PA WireIt continued: “It is our view that for any such debate to be productive, it must start from a position of rigorous, independent and dispassionate evidence.”The first scenario outlined in the briefing document to be explored by the FSI is “a single unitary republic, governed by institutions primarily based in Dublin which would be fully in place within a maximum of five years of a unification referendum”.The second consideration would be the outcomes of an all-island state with devolved government in Northern Ireland, “in a manner similar to that which currently operates under Strand One of the Good Friday Agreement”.Read MoreThe third scenario would effectively be the status quo of long-term co-operation and shared development in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement without any constitutional change.Ireland’s premier has proposed that a chairperson be appointed to oversee research into potential future scenarios including Irish unification within five years of a referendum (Brian Lawless/PA)PA WireIt is understood the FSI would seek to provide an objective, independent knowledge base to be used to inform debate, and would not be charged with recommending a specific single proposal for Northern Ireland’s governance.The briefing document shared by the Taoiseach said: “Led by people who are acknowledged as eminent and independent, the initiative would summarise current knowledge, identify knowledge gaps or points of significant contestation and commission work to address these gaps.”The work would be about defining where there are gaps in knowledge, so that people can design and engage in informed debate about their proposals for the future.According to the briefing document, this would provide a “good faith opportunity” for those outside the nationalist tradition to participate.The document adds: “In debating the future constitutional arrangements for the island, as genuinely inclusive a debate as possible is critically important.“It is essential to avoid the most consistent failure of the last century where initiatives ended up with one side talking with itself and reinforcing division.“It is our view that we need a new approach, which protects initiatives which have cross-community legitimacy while separately addressing the legitimate need to go deeper on framing an evidence base and proposal for a new constitutional framework.”It is understood that the unit would operate on the core assumptions that regardless of the potential constitutional scenario in discussion, maximising the welfare of all parts of the island is a priority.In any outcome, the document says, “broad fiscal and economic convergence should underpin policy and be defined and costed in medium and long-term impacts”.It is understood backbenchers were briefed that the initiative should be led by a chairperson and at least five others, so that an expert in the six fields of constitutional and legal change, the economy, health, education, security and culture, can oversee the work.Fianna Fáil TDs Erin McGreehan, Brendan Smith (pictured) and Patrick Gallagher are seen as potential candidates within the party to sit on the body (Niall Carson/PA)PA ArchiveFianna Fáil TDs Erin McGreehan, Brendan Smith and Patrick Gallagher are seen as potential candidates within the party to sit on the body.It is understood that the Taoiseach also briefed backbenchers on discussions for reform of Strand One of the Good Friday Agreement.The landmark political deal, signed on April 10, 1998, that largely brought an end to three decades of violent conflict in Northern Ireland known as The Troubles, is structured around three core interlocking administrative and political components, known as strands.Strand One deals with the devolved power-sharing assembly of government in Northern Ireland based in Stormont, Belfast.The briefing document states that an inclusive discussion which involves all Northern Ireland parties and the two governments remains the most constructive way to discuss reforms to Northern Ireland’s governance.It is understood that backbenchers were briefed that Fianna Fáil supports reform of the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement and that evidence suggests that there is a clear need and public demand to see them operate more effectively.Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA (right), and deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly MLA are the leaders of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive (Liam McBurney/PA)PA Archive“A majority of the public believes that the institutions are not working effectively to address the social and economic challenges faced by Northern Ireland,” the document says.“This is an acute concern because of regular commentary about the possibility of the Assembly and Executive again being collapsed – thereby continuing a cycle of establishment and collapse which has prevented essential progress and planning over the past three decades.“Rather than let this cycle continue, there should be a substantive discussion about ways to reform the operations of the institutions so that they can prevent legitimate protections for different communities from being used to block wider progress.”It is understood that the other core point the Taoiseach briefed his party colleagues on was the Government’s need to continue developing and delivering the Shared Island Initiative.The initiative established in 2020 has seen the most significant investment in the history of the North-South relationship, backed by a Shared Island Fund of two billion euro.According to the briefing document, to date, more than one billion euro of the fund has been assigned.Earlier, a spokesman for the Taoiseach said Mr Martin had been considering the FSI proposal since early summer.The spokesman said the name of the initiative would not include Irish unity as it could be perceived to prejudge an outcome.