Southwest Airlines Now Runs Late Nearly A Third Of The Time

Southwest Airlines was late nearly a third of the time in October, and its cancellation rate was more than twice Delta’s. It finished last for punctuality among the ten North American airlines in aviation analytics company Cirium’s new monthly report, while Delta led on both. For the past two months, I’ve pointed out that Southwest’s poor on-time rankings were offset by canceling fewer flights than anyone else. They weren’t on-time but they reliably got passengers to their destinations. In October, though, Delta, United and even Frontier cancelled a smaller share of flights than Southwest. Here are Cirium’s North American results. On-time means arriving at the gate within 15 minutes of schedule. Airline September On-Time October On-Time October Canceled Delta 82.52% 86.86% 0.24% United 78.65% 84.06% 0.31% WestJet 85.31% 83.56% 0.90% JetBlue 74.64% 82.27% 0.57% Alaska 80.73% 81.06% 1.10% American 77.11% 80.10% 0.63% Allegiant Not listed 77.89% 1.13% Frontier 75.49% 77.62% 0.38% Air Canada 73.19% 75.74% 2.80% Southwest 71.14% 68.90% 0.51% Southwest’s Fixes Extend Into January Southwest’s on-time performance fell 2.24 percentage points from September. Every other U.S. airline improved. And Southwest was nearly seven points behind even Air Canada, the next airline up the list. They’re also way down from last October when they were 75.5% on time versus 68.9% this year. Delta improved year-over-year from 84.5% to 86.9%. Southwest’s cancellation rate increased from 0.38% to 0.51%. That’s still only about five cancellations per thousand flights, but Delta was at 2.4 per thousand and United at 3.1. There was no longer a cancellation advantage in October to offset the Dallas-based carrier’s greater likelihood of arriving late. Management knows there’s a problem. On the October 22 earnings call, chief operating officer Andrew Watterson said the weakness was concentrated in delays between roughly 15 and 45 minutes. He described the airline consistently starting aircraft turnarounds well, then losing time at the end. Changes to gate checking bags and closing flights are supposed to begin in November. Southwest gate checks a lot more bags now that passengers want to carry more belongings onboard, since checked bags have a fee. Agents will finally be able to close flights using an iPad at the aircraft. And adjusted schedules begin in January. Fast turns let Southwest get more flying out of each airplane. But those savings shrink when those produces delays, and CEO Bob Jordan acknowledged that poor punctuality is adding to costs including from misconnecting passengers. Delta Leads, United Closes In, And JetBlue Recovers Delta took first place from WestJet, ending the Canadian airline’s five-month run at the top of North America. Delta also ranked third on Cirium’s global list. Their cancellation rate has fallen from 1.77% in August to 0.92% in September and 0.24% in October. That’s real improvement compared to their abysmal summer operation. United is getting improving, too. Delta’s punctuality lead over United narrowed from 3.87 percentage points to 2.80. Delta canceled less often this time, but the difference was just 0.07 percentage points or seven flights per 10,000 scheduled. I wouldn’t pay much extra for Delta over United based on that operational gap. Against Southwest, Delta was nearly 18 percentage points more likely to arrive within the on-time window. American improved, too, but fell further behind both of its major competitors. Delta’s lead over American widened from 5.41 to 6.76 points. United’s lead widened from 1.54 to 3.96 points. American’s better month left them sixth in North America. And JetBlue went from 63.85% on time in August to 74.64% in September and 82.27% in October. Their 7.63-point gain was the largest of any North American airline. JetBlue finished ahead of both Alaska and American on punctuality, and canceled less often than either. Their cancellation rate fell from 5.09% in August to 0.57% in October. Even Newark Made The On-Time Airports List The airport report measures on-time departures, rather than arrivals. Six U.S. airports made Cirium’s top 20 large airports worldwide, up from just two in September: Minneapolis–St. Paul: 87.00%, eighth Washington Dulles: 86.25%, eleventh Detroit: 86.13%, twelfth Salt Lake City: 85.69%, thirteenth Newark: 85.64%, fourteenth Atlanta: 85.17%, eighteenth Four are Delta hubs. The other two are United hubs. No American hub made the list. This is partly another view of the airlines themselves, since a hub’s results depend heavily on its dominant carrier. I never expect to see Newark doing well! And this data can be useful to some degree in choosing between otherwise similar connecting options, although can also be seasonal due to weather. Topics on this page