Six key items millions will be told to prepare for El Niño flood risk

Millions of people in England are being warned to prepare a personal flood plan and stock up on bottled water and emergency kits ahead of what is expected to be the strongest El Niño on record this winter. More than 11 million people in six million properties susceptible to flash floods or rising water levels during extreme weather should take steps now to protect their homes, the Environment Agency has said. This includes signing up to get localised warnings by text, phone or email and making a flood plan which they can put into effect if extreme weather is imminent. Shorts A personal flood plan, available on the Government website, recommends being ready to store essential items such as mobile phones, laptops, passports, driving licences and other key documents, as well as things that carry sentimental value such as family photos and jewellery, in waterproof bags or containers if extremely wet weather is forecast. Households at risk should also prepare an emergency flood kit of drinking water, medicine, waterproof clothing, a change of dry clothes, torch and items for any babies and children if they have to leave their home in a hurry. Research by the Environment Agency suggests that around a third of people at risk – some 3.4 million – do not know they are. People are being advised to look up their home’s status on check-long-term-flood-risk.service.gov.uk. El Niño is a climate pattern which affects large parts of the world, often bringing higher temperatures. It occurs when the typically cool, dry east Pacific becomes warmer and wetter. This can raise global temperatures and cause more droughts and floods. Scientists monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures warned last week that the developing El Niño is already the strongest on record. Strongest El Niño on record developing This means that daily sea surface temperatures in part of the central eastern Pacific were 3.05C above average on 19 September, breaking the previous record of 3.02C set in 2015. The peak is expected later this year. Dr Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said that despite the predictions of the strongest-ever El Niño, the effects on the UK this winter could still be subtle. Modelling by the Met Office suggests there is a 40 per cent chance the next three months could be wetter overall – which is double the normal chance – and a 25 per cent chance it will be windier, which is 1.3 times the normal expectation. He said this did not mean it would definitely be wetter and windier but there was a “subtle shift in the odds” of those conditions. Lang said: “There is an increased signal for it being wetter overall, windier than overall than normal, and milder than usual as well, but things could easily be different from that.” Seasonal models suggested there is an increased chance of drier and colder conditions towards the back end of winter, Lang said, adding: “All of this, both the wet start and the drier end, are consistent with what you might expect from a typical El Niño year and its effect on the UK in the winter half of the year. “We are going in with a heightened potential for wet weather, heightened potential for potentially stormy conditions, and obviously that leads through to a heightened potential for flooding.” Even if the effects of the developing El Niño could be slight in the UK this autumn and winter, the British government is preparing its biggest ever response to potential flooding. UK preparing biggest ever response to flooding In addition to one week of public awareness during a national Flood Action Week in mid-October, there will be sustained government communications throughout autumn and winter. The Environment Agency has improved its forecasting and warning service, which will use an internationally recognised “common alerting protocol”, where official alerts are added to third party platforms such as Google Maps. The government is also preparing to send more emergency alerts to phones if flash floods are forecast, while a new national operations centre with “24/7 situational awareness and coordination” has been stepped up. Caroline Douglas, executive director for flood and coastal risk management at the Environment Agency, said: “What we want the public to do is know what their risk is, check on gov.uk, and we need them to sign up for flood warnings. “And if they are at risk they need to prepare a flood plan – understanding what they need to do and when to be able to respond.” A Government spokesperson said: “Our climate is changing and as we head into winter, we’re making sure communities have the protection they need from flooding. “We have put a record amount of money into flood protection, and in the last two years alone this has helped protected more than 62,000 properties. “This year we are investing £1.4bn to help fund more than 600 flood defence projects and better protect more communities across the country.”