Russia’s Starlink Rival Suffers Major Satellite Launch Failure

Russia’s attempt to rapidly develop an alternative to Starlink has suffered another setback after all 16 Rassvet satellites launched in July failed to reach their intended operational altitude, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Tuesday, Sept. 1. None of the satellites in the second batch, launched on July 19, had reached the anticipated altitude of 550 kilometers (342 miles) as of Aug. 31, according to satellite-tracking data cited by ISW.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Many remained between 300 and 400 kilometers (186-249 miles), while some were experiencing orbital decay. At least two were reportedly heading toward reentry into Earth’s atmosphere. ISW noted that these satellites were also well below the reported intended operational altitude of 870 kilometers (541 miles) for the Rassvet system. Why lower orbits pose a problem Satellites in lower orbits have shorter operational lifespans because of increased atmospheric drag and greater fuel consumption, ISW said. It remains unclear how long the lower-altitude satellites will stay in orbit, but they are unlikely to operate for as long as Russia had projected. Of the first batch of 16 Rassvet satellites launched on March 24, only 12 had reached the anticipated altitude of 550 kilometers as of July 31 and remained there as of Aug. 31. Those 12 satellites provided Russian forces with two daily connectivity windows over Ukraine, lasting up to 90 minutes each. Moscow rushing to replace lost Starlink access ISW assessed that Russia is likely rushing to deploy Rassvet satellites after losing access to Starlink communications over Ukraine on Feb. 1. Other Topics of Interest Graham’s ‘Sanctions Bill From Hell’ Against Russia Hits House Roadblock The bill would let Trump impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries buying Russian energy, but both Democrats and some Republicans are pushing back. The shutdown forced Moscow to rely more heavily on Rassvet and likely accelerated its planned timeline for creating a fully operational Starlink alternative. The apparent failure of the entire second batch to reach the required altitude suggests Russia was unprepared to accelerate deployment at this pace and will probably face further delays, ISW said. Even a partially functioning Rassvet constellation could still threaten Ukraine. Limited satellite communications may allow Russian forces to conduct more precise attacks using remotely controlled unmanned systems and improve battlefield connectivity during available coverage windows. Russia would need hundreds of satellites Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440, which is developing Rassvet, has said Russia plans “dozens” of additional launches to deploy “hundreds” of satellites. Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technologies Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov estimated in May that Russia would need at least 200-300 operational satellites to establish stable, around-the-clock connectivity over Ukraine. ISW said Russia is unlikely to achieve that goal soon because it depends on the costly and scarce Soyuz-2.1b medium-lift launch vehicle. Russia has reportedly conducted only six to eight Soyuz-2.1b launches across all state and commercial missions since 2022. At that rate, Russia could launch no more than 128 Rassvet satellites over four years, with no guarantee that all, or even a minimum effective quantity, would become operational. Only 37.5-percent of the Rassvet satellites that had launched as of August 2026 had reached sustainable operational altitudes, ISW said. Ukrainian attacks would cause further delays Ukrainian assaults against Russian satellite production and launch infrastructure would further disrupt the program. Ukraine targeted the Progress Space Rocket Center overnight on Aug. 14-15, a facility that manufactures Soyuz launch vehicles, according to ISW. Ukrainian forces also attempted to attack the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Aug. 23. Russia reportedly launched both Rassvet batches from the site. ISW said Ukraine’s ability to threaten both launch-vehicle production and scarce launch infrastructure could further delay Russia’s effort to build its own Starlink alternative for military use in Ukraine. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.