Russia’s Elections Are a ‘Stress Test’ for Putin’s Regime

As Russia prepares for State Duma elections on Sept. 18-20, the ruling United Russia party is expected to retain its dominant position within the Kremlin’s tightly controlled political system. While the result may be predictable, veteran Russia analyst Paul Goble argues the election itself will act as a “stress test” of the regime’s ability to enforce its will across Russia.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Elite tensions are already present, he said, as officials face consequences depending on how effectively they deliver the Kremlin’s political agenda. Putin hopes to portray the election as a mandate for continuing his policies, but Goble believes the process could have the opposite effect. “I think more people have thought more about what should Russia be doing, and I think that in itself has a corrosive effect on Putin’s standing,” he said. Once the victory celebrations fade, Goble expects renewed discussion of what he called the “further decay of support for the Kremlin, for Putin and for Putin’s policies.” Defining Putin’s Hybrid System Goble described Putinism as a hybrid system drawing heavily from Russian imperial and Soviet traditions, with what he called “fascist elements.” But he said the more important issue is Putin’s objective. “It seems to me that Putin really does want to reverse both the demise of the Soviet Union that took place in 1991 and the demise of the bipolar world that followed,” Goble said. Other Topics of Interest Zelensky Says Russia Targeted His Plane Twice in Recent Weeks Zelensky said the alleged incidents were part of a Russian effort to intimidate him and foreign leaders traveling to Ukraine. Putin learned that military force and intimidation could work because previous Russian aggression did not produce consequences severe enough to force him to change course, Goble argued. “He invaded Georgia and the sky didn’t fall. He seized Crimea and the sky didn’t fall,” he said. Ukraine, however, has proved different. “Russia hasn’t succeeded in the way that he hoped,” Goble said. “His reaction has been to just continue more of the same and to be more repressive at home.” He believes that trajectory cannot continue indefinitely. “It’s certainly not sustainable for five more years,” Goble said. Putin also faces a dilemma over how the war ends. If Russia continues fighting while Ukrainians “continue to resist heroically,” Goble said, Moscow must replace mounting battlefield losses and continue absorbing the economic and human costs of the war. But peace would bring its own challenge. Were fighting to stop, Russians would expect a “peace dividend” and a change of direction, he said – expectations Putin would struggle to meet without changing his regime “in ways that he’s not prepared to do.” Putin’s terms unacceptable to Ukraine Goble said Putin likely wants a settlement – but one that gives Moscow almost everything it wants. “He wants the border adjusted, he wants Ukraine to accept being subordinate to Moscow, to give up ties with NATO and the European Union,” Goble said. Furthermore, Putin demands that the Ukrainian military be severely downsized and its armaments subjected to Kremlin approval. “I don’t think the Ukrainians will accept that, and I think that they’re going to continue to fight,” Goble stated. Even if a future Ukrainian government were to capitulate to these sweeping demands, Goble argued that national resistance would simply shift rather than end. He pointed to the aftermath of World War II, when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians continued a fierce partisan campaign against returning Soviet forces. Any leadership in Kyiv making major concessions today would likely trigger a similar domestic uprising, leaving Russian troops facing a permanent, hostile insurgency. “We’re not, in my view, close to an end of this unless someone manages to overthrow Vladimir Putin and decides that Russia will be better off getting less than he wants and allowing the Ukrainians to get almost everything they want,” Goble concluded. Russia’s post-war reckoning Asked whether Russia could eventually face a fate similar to Nazi Germany after its defeat in World War II, Goble drew a clear distinction. “The Ukrainians will not be occupying Moscow,” he said. “There won’t be a division up of the Russian Federation with Ukraine supervising that. So it won’t be like 1945 in the defeat of Nazi Germany, which involved an unconditional surrender.” But Russia could still face a long and painful reckoning with the consequences of its war against Ukraine. Goble compared the eventual fallout with the lasting societal impact of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, while noting that Russia’s losses in Ukraine are already vastly greater. Even if the Kremlin attempts to reframe the outcome, Goble sees the war as a “huge geopolitical defeat for Putin.” “Obviously, he’ll try to dress it up as something other than that. That’s what leaders do,” Goble said. “But at the end of the day, most Russians are clever enough to recognize that he has hurt their country more than he has hurt anyone else.” Sevinj OsmanqiziSevinj Osmanqizi is an experienced journalist who writes extensively for Kyiv Post on foreign policy, international security and geopolitics. Based in Washington, D.C., her work focuses on Ukraine, Russia’s war and the broader post-Soviet space.