Russia Plans 28,000 More Shahed-Type Drones a Year as It Expands Carbon-Fiber Plant

Russia is preparing to dramatically expand production of carbon fiber needed for its Shahed-type attack drones, potentially enabling Moscow to build an additional 28,000 drones a year, according to Russian state-company documents obtained by POLITICO. The planned expansion of Rosatom’s Alabuga-Volokno factory in Tatarstan would add up to 500 tons of military-grade aerospace carbon fiber production annually by 2029.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Weapons expert David Albright estimates that would be enough material for roughly 28,000 Shahed-136 airframes – a potential 78% increase over Russia’s current annual output of the drones. Ukraine estimates Russia can already produce more than 36,000 Geran attack drones a year. The Geran-2 is Russia’s version of Iran’s Shahed-136 drone. The drones have become a central part of Russia’s campaign of mass attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, while Russian-made variants have increasingly appeared in incidents affecting European countries. Factory expansion already underway Russian authorities approved Rosatom’s plans in May to build a new production line at Alabuga-Volokno for chemical fibers and threads, with an annual capacity of up to 500 tons of carbon fiber. Satellite imagery from May through July shows land being cleared next to the existing factory for the expansion, according to a Ukrainian official who reviewed the documents. Albright, who independently obtained August satellite imagery, said the foundation of the new facility was already being prepared. Other Topics of Interest Exit Polls Put Putin’s United Russia at 49.4% in Russian State Duma Vote Two exit polls put United Russia near or above 50%, while turnout reached 56.66%, exceeding the levels recorded in Russia’s 2021 and 2016 elections. Satellite images captured in May (L) and July (R) show land adjacent to Rosatom's Alabuga-Volokno carbon fiber factory in Tatarstan's Alabuga Special Economic Zone being cleared for the expansion project. | Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre The project is reportedly scheduled for completion in 2027. The US House Select Committee on China reviewed the documents and determined they were authentic, according to a US government official familiar with the review. A Ukrainian official also confirmed their authenticity. Rosatom declined to comment. Moscow wants to make more drones at home The expansion is part of a broader Russian effort to reduce its reliance on foreign supplies of critical drone components. Rosatom documents say the project is intended to support “import substitution” and meet demand from Russia’s aviation and defense industries for carbon fiber. The new facility is designed to produce UMT42S-3K carbon fiber, a high-specification material used in aerospace applications. Albright said carbon fiber is essential to keeping the drones lightweight while strengthening their wings and internal structures. “Without the carbon fiber, they can’t make the drone,” he said, according to POLITICO. Russia is also seeking to reduce its dependence on China for the raw materials needed to produce high-grade carbon fiber. Earlier this year, the Alabuga-Volokno factory received a disguised shipment of 46 tons of carbon-fiber chemicals from a Chinese state corporation, POLITICO reported. The factory and Rosatom’s advanced materials division UMATEX are under Western sanctions. Drone production raises European security concerns Russia’s growing drone production is increasingly becoming a concern beyond Ukraine. Russian drones have violated Polish and Romanian airspace, while Moscow has continued developing longer-range and faster versions of the Geran platform. The September attack on a passenger train near the Polish border, which killed one person and wounded eight, has also highlighted the potential risks of Russia’s expanding drone campaign. “It’s been a very good coercive tool and critical to Russia’s deep strike campaign,” said Stacie Pettyjohn, a former US Defense Department adviser who researches drone warfare. Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, warned that the expansion of Alabuga could pose a long-term security challenge to Europe. “Drones manufactured in the Russian Alabuga Special Economic Zone,” he said, “are likely to become the main instrument of the Russian Federation’s future campaigns in Europe.” Russia targets 130,000 drones by 2030 Moscow’s plans extend beyond the Alabuga expansion. Russia aims to produce around 130,000 drones under its national “Unmanned Aerial Systems” project by 2030, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis. That target rises to 350,000 by 2035. The Alabuga factory is expected to play a key role in that effort. The expansion comes as Russia continues its war against Ukraine despite renewed diplomatic efforts. US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff visited Moscow and Kyiv earlier this month to push forward peace talks. Russia resumed major attacks on Kyiv shortly after their departure and has continued striking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Nicholas Fenton of CSIS said Russia’s expanding drone production suggests Moscow is not preparing to scale back its military capabilities. “The Russians are gaining momentum in the air war, continuing to iterate these systems, continuing to expand production,” Fenton said. “There’s significant concern over what might be coming.” Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.