Russia Could Attack NATO Within Months, Denmark Warns

Russia could intensify attacks against the West and potentially launch a limited military operation against a NATO country within months, Denmark’s military intelligence service has warned.The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) issued the warning in a threat assessment report published on Thursday, Sept. 24.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.Reuters reported that the DDIS expects Moscow to conduct more frequent hybrid attacks against NATO and Western countries, with potentially more serious consequences than previous operations.The report also identifies a “low but growing risk” that Russia could carry out a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia while continuing its war against Ukraine.European intelligence agencies have also for months warned of limited Russian escalations in the Baltics.In April, Sweden’s top military commander warned that Russia could test NATO by seizing one of the thousand Baltic islands. In June, Latvia said it identified signs that Russia might be preparing “military provocations” against the Baltic states or Poland.What a limited Russian attack could look likeThe Danish assessment distinguishes a limited operation from a conventional invasion intended to occupy an entire country.Possible scenarios include isolated drone or missile strikes against infrastructure used to support Ukraine, according to DDIS Director Thomas Ahrenkiel.Russia could attempt to portray such an attack as an accident caused by Ukrainian electronic warfare or conduct a false-flag operation using Ukrainian-made drones. Other Topics of Interest ‘Save Lives’: Stubb Urges Musk to Expand Starlink Access for Ukraine Finland’s president says expanded Starlink coverage could let Ukraine strike Russian ballistic missile launchers before they fire. Another scenario could involve sending a small number of troops, potentially without national insignia, into the border territory of a NATO country under the pretext of protecting an ethnic Russian minority.“The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO,” Ahrenkiel said.Such an operation could test whether NATO members are prepared to respond collectively and whether an ambiguous or deniable attack would trigger the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense treaty.The clause treats an armed attack against one alliance member as an attack against them all. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said the alliance deliberately avoids defining the precise threshold for activating Article 5 because doing so could help adversaries calculate how far they can escalate.According to the Danish assessment, Moscow may become more willing to test NATO if it concludes that members are politically divided or that the US is unable or unwilling to defend its European allies.Russian rhetoric raises further Baltic concernsThe Danish warning also comes amid increasingly aggressive Russian rhetoric toward NATO’s Baltic members.Earlier in September, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that further military and political escalation in the Baltic region would provoke a “decisive and destructive” response from Moscow.“The Russian response to the initiators of reckless anti-Russian ventures will be decisive and destructive,” Zakharova said, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.On Friday, Sept. 25, RIA Novosti went further by publishing a column titled “Russia Faces Another Special Military Operation. It Will Be Very Short,” written by pro-Kremlin commentator Alexander Nosovich.The article appeared after Lithuania’s parliament proposed to remove the country’s constitutional prohibition on stationing nuclear weapons.Nosovich compared a possible conflict in the Baltic states with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and claimed Moscow would not need to deploy ground forces.“Only missiles with an appropriate warhead,” he wrote, adding that the outcome would be “not simply fast, but lightning-fast.”RIA Novosti subsequently removed the column without explaining why, independent Russian outlet ASTRA reported.The column represented the opinion of a pro-Kremlin commentator rather than an announced Russian government policy. Its publication by a state-controlled news agency, however, coincided with the Danish assessment that Moscow is using threats and deniable aggression to intimidate NATO members and deepen divisions within the alliance.Sabotage and cyberattacks expected to intensifyThe more immediate threat identified by Denmark involves hybrid operations below the threshold of conventional war.These could include sabotage, destructive cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation, covert recruitment and deniable attacks against companies or transport routes supporting Ukraine.Denmark’s domestic security service previously said Russian intelligence agencies were attempting to recruit Danish citizens through social media and gaming platforms.Potential recruits were reportedly asked to photograph defense companies and sensitive infrastructure that could later be targeted in sabotage operations.Denmark’s Resilience Agency separately raised its assessment of the destructive cyberattack threat on Thursday, saying Russia was likely to attempt operations against Danish systems.Moscow has repeatedly denied organizing sabotage or hybrid attacks in NATO countries. The Russian Embassy in Copenhagen rejected the latest intelligence assessment as unsupported and accused Denmark and other Western states of escalating tensions over Ukraine.Recent confrontations raise concernThe assessment follows several incidents that European governments have linked to Russian hybrid activity.On Sept. 14, a Russian warship fired two signal flares toward a Danish military helicopter that was photographing the vessel in international waters. Danish officials said one flare passed close to the aircraft.Russia subsequently rewarded the ship’s commander, while Denmark condemned the incident and summoned the Russian ambassador.Germany has also held Moscow responsible for an attempted explosive-drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, a major logistics hub used by Ukrainian and NATO-linked aircraft.The Danish assessment said a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely. However, intelligence officials said it can no longer be ruled out entirely.NATO has already begun expanding intelligence sharing on suspected Russian sabotage as alliance members try to identify attacks quickly and coordinate a response before Moscow can exploit disagreements between them. Yuliia Zavadska is a news writer at Kyiv Post. She has experience in breaking news coverage, fact-checking, and digital journalism, with a focus on fast, accurate reporting and clear storytelling. Before joining Kyiv Post, she worked as a news feed editor for several leading Ukrainian media outlets.