Rubio Doubts Ukraine Peace Deal Before Spring 2027

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio does not believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will agree to any negotiated settlement regarding Ukraine before the spring of 2027, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Alex Raufoglu reported, citing three senior European officials. According to European diplomats briefed on transatlantic discussions, Rubio also characterized near-term Ukrainian accession to NATO as unrealistic as a security guarantee mechanism, expressing conviction that Moscow would never consent to Kyiv’s membership in the alliance.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Speaking at the Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, the top US diplomat adopted a sober tone regarding the prospects of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, pushing back against assumptions that an accord is close at hand. “I don’t know if negotiated peace is achievable in Ukraine. That’s what we’re trying to find out,” Rubio stated during a press briefing. “I don’t think anyone here is claiming that we are on the verge of a negotiated settlement.” Rubio explained that the Trump administration’s immediate diplomatic efforts are focused on probing the belligerents’ positions to establish whether common ground exists, rather than prematurely declaring the conflict near its conclusion. Miami G20 summit invitations and Putin skepticism Rubio expressed skepticism that Putin will travel to the US to attend the G20 leaders’ summit scheduled for Dec. 14-15 in Miami, Florida, despite an official invitation extended to the Russian leader by the White House. Other Topics of Interest Stubb Refutes Putin Slavic History Lecture, Backs Kyiv Finnish President Alexander Stubb has dismissed reports that Vladimir Putin lectured him on Slavic history, saying the call was made at Ukraine’s request. However, both Rubio and US President Donald Trump signaled that President Volodymyr Zelensky could be formally invited to participate in the Miami summit alongside world leaders. Speaking to journalists during Halloween celebrations at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump was asked whether he plans to invite Zelensky to the summit given that Putin has already received an invitation. “Yes, no problem,” Trump replied to reporters, confirming his willingness to include the Ukrainian head of state in the gathering. Rubio noted that leader-level attendance remains an executive presidential prerogative, while indicating openness to the idea if it advances diplomatic progress. “This is a leader-level meeting. The decision on that has to be made by the president,” Rubio said at a press conference. “I wouldn’t rule out that possibility. Especially if something positive could happen as a result of his participation, but today I have no announcements to make on that front.” The Kremlin previously stated that Putin’s attendance at the Miami G20 summit depends directly on the outcomes of an anticipated trilateral meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for Nov. 18-19. Territorial framing and diplomatic mediation Rubio’s cautious timeline follows remarks delivered on Oct. 22, in which he framed the armed conflict as an impasse fundamentally centered on the Donbas region. “People keep talking about it’s a war in Ukraine. That war is about Donbas. It’s about one region of the country,” Rubio said during a prior briefing. “At its core, it’s about 11 percent of one part of that country that Russia wants and cannot take militarily and that Ukraine is unwilling to give up. And they have good reasons why they don’t want to do that – for sovereignty and their own security long term.” The secretary of state reiterated that neither side can achieve an absolute military victory, insisting that an enduring armistice will require mutual accommodations brokered through direct diplomacy. “This war is not going to be solved militarily. This war is only going to end diplomatically,” Rubio explained, outlining Washington’s desired role as an honest broker. “Can you arrive at an outcome in which both sides receive something of benefit but also give concessions and bring this to an end? As hard as it is, it is impossible to do unless both sides are at the table talking, and we’re happy to play the mediating role in that regard.” President Zelensky previously stated that Ukraine is prepared to freeze combat operations along existing front lines to bring a swift end to active fighting, but emphasized that Kyiv will never legally recognize occupied territories as Russian sovereign soil. Zelensky noted that Russian forces currently occupy 19.3 percent of Ukraine, dismissing suggestions that Ukraine cede the remainder of the Donbas.