Reform’s support eaten away by Restore as Labour pulls ahead in latest poll

Labour is maintaining its ‘Burnham Bounce’ more than two months after the new Prime Minister entered No 10, with the latest polling for The i Paper showing the party has slightly extended its poll lead over Reform UK from four to five points. Nigel Farage’s party remained in second place in the latest BMG Polling for The i Paper, locked on 23 per cent, and behind Labour, for the third month running. Worryingly for Farage, the rival Restore Britain Party registered by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe in February is polling 7 per cent – an increase of 2 points and clearly eating into Reform’s voter share. Kemi Badenoch can also take heart from the polling, with the Tories up to 20 per cent from 18 per cent last month. Shorts With the right-wing vote split, Andy Burnham appeared to be consolidating support on the centre-left as the Liberal Democrats and Greens lost ground, suggesting he is currently best placed for the next election. Concerns for Nigel Farage Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey will be particularly alarmed. The Lib Dem’s vote share of 8 per cent is the lowest since at least May 2024, when the General Election was called. Farage will be hoping it shows Reform’s fall from a high of 35 per cent last August has at least stopped after a difficult summer that saw him embroiled in controversy over party donations. But he will still be concerned after a separate survey this week suggested the party would win fewer seats than Labour and the Tories in a general election, with Burnham in pole position to form a government in a hung parliament. There are signs that Lowe’s far-right party is winning over former backers of Farage, with Restore stealing 15 per cent of those who voted Reform in the 2024 general election, up five points on last month – as areas of the country were hit in recent weeks by extreme anti-migration protests. “Restore looks to be blocking Reform’s path to power by eating into its base,” Robert Struthers, Head of Public Perceptions at BMG, said It will lend weight to some political observers’ analysis that Burnham is more likely to win the next election as he can hoover up support on the left, while Farage continues to suffer from a fragmentation of support on the right. Fears over a snap election The results will also do nothing to dampen down speculation that Burnham may call a snap election in order to have his own mandate. This is unlikely while the polling still points to a hung parliament – but if the right remain divided while the left consolidate, some in Westminster believe he may be tempted. More voters also want Labour to remain in Government until the next scheduled election in 2029 (41 per cent) than those that want an early poll (38 per cent). Although this was split on party lines with the majority of Tory and Reform voters wanting an early election and the reverse true of Labour and Green supporters. Struthers added: “Six months after registering as a party, Restore is already polling at 7 per cent. “With the Liberal Democrats and Greens slipping back, that puts Rupert Lowe’s party within touching distance of some far more established players. “Restore is peeling away what Reform once thought was its core vote. It now takes 15 per cent of those who backed Reform in 2024, up from 10 per cent last month. “There are important caveats. We don’t know if Restore can field candidates in every seat or build the organisation to fight a general election, and smaller parties often get squeezed when a race narrows. “Three in five current Reform voters say they’d consider Restore, so there’s clear room for Lowe’s party to grow. “Yet a similar share of current Restore backers would consider Reform, showing the scope for them to be squeezed in a future contest.” Lowe is a ‘kamikaze pilot’ Restore’s relatively high polling is causing consternation in Reform – with insiders saying the prospect of a snap election is causing “some concern”. In a sign of how far the party has come despite sliding in the polls, coming second in an election – and thus the official Opposition – would be considered acceptable, but coming third “would be seen as ‘job not having been done’. “There’s a fear that a snap election is so unpredictable it could end up with Reform in third or even fourth,” a party source said. With Restore taking votes from Reform, but currently unlikely to win more than Lowe’s current seat of Great Yarmouth, the source compared the former Southampton FC chairman with “a kamikaze pilot”. “What are they doing? Apart obviously from [Lowe’s] personal vendetta [against Farage].” A senior Conservative strategist meanwhile said that Reform had made one of the most basic errors in politics by providing a running commentary on the polls when the party was out in front. Over the last year, Farage and his colleagues have repeatedly trumpeted polls which were good for them, attacked polling firms showing them with a smaller advantage, and made much of Reform’s unbroken lead between April 2025 and July of this year. The Tory strategist said the aim of the commentary was to create the impression of unstoppable momentum in order to make the Conservatives look “obsolete”. However, they said this was now backfiring against them now Reform had dipped in the poll. Warning signs for Labour There were potential early warning signs for Labour as it saw its lead over the Tories on the cost of living narrow to six points and on the economy to three points amid rising inflation and ahead of the Budget. More than half of voters (51 per cent) are now worried about paying for everyday essentials, compared to 45 per cent who are not. Reform also widened its lead over Labour on immigration to eight points after so-called “mega-dinghies” used by migrants to cross the Channel, as well as small boats now coming to the UK on new routes, reignited concerns about the asylum crisis despite crossings falling significantly. On personal ratings Burnham (+3 net satisfaction) and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (+2) remained significantly more popular than Farage (-23), who has suffered alongside his party following a summer of donations scandals and a pyrrhic victory over Count Binface in a by-election he triggered in his Clacton seat. Both the Prime Minister and Chancellor John Healey also remain significantly more popular than their predecessors Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves going into next month’s crunch Budget, in another sign that a change at the top has restored Labour’s fortunes. :: BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,515 GB adults between 23 and 24 September. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.