One Nation profits as NSW voters abandon major parties

The Coalition and Labor have each recorded their lowest support in NSW in recent memory. Almost half of the state’s voters have told pollsters they will abandon the major parties at next year’s election.The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows support for the two major parties has dropped to its lowest since at least November 2021.Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane’s Coalition and NSW Premier Chris Minns’s Labor Party both went backwards in the most recent Resolve Political Monitor.Marija ErcegovacThe poll shows support for the Kellie Sloane-led Coalition languishing at just 23 per cent, down three points from the previous result. At the same time, Chris Minns’s Labor government also fell by three points, to 29 per cent, its equal worst result since the 2023 election.The main beneficiary was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Despite recent federal polling showing support for the anti-immigration, far-right party tailing off after its recent surge, 25 per cent of the poll’s 1100 respondents in NSW said they would vote for the party if an election was held today.The rapid move away from the two major parties, just eight months before the next state election, makes for sober reading for both sides.Overall, 48 per cent of voters said they would vote for a non-major party, with the Greens up 1 point to 11 per cent and 12 per cent nominating independents or other parties.The polling comes from two occasions, in mid-June and mid-July, either side of the Labor government’s no frills pre-election budget, and the announcement by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption of its probe into an allegedly corrupt donation scheme involving Liberal Party apparatchiks.The latter has produced a string of negative headlines about the Coalition, and led to the resignation of its leader in the NSW upper house, Damien Tudehope, who had been called as a witness to the inquiry and had close relationships with some of the Liberal Party figures in the ICAC’s sights. Tudehope has not been accused of any wrongdoing, however.At the same time Chris Minns’s rating as preferred premier fell two points from 38 per cent to 36 per cent, though he retained a commanding lead over the opposition leader –Sloane’s rating dropped from 18 per cent to 16 per cent.Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the flurry of news about the ICAC inquiry could have hurt both major parties.“There have been a number of political scandals in the last few weeks, and they tend to tar all politicians with the same brush, which is why we’re seeing both major parties drop,” he said.“The difference now is that we have a third force in One Nation, who actually benefit from this because they are anti-institutional, anti-elite. They are seen by some as the alternative and the solution.”The poll also reflected public debate over shark numbers after a swimmer was mauled by a great white shark at Coogee Beach.The attack prompted Premier Chris Minns to announce extra funding for shark-detecting drones to fly year-round as part of an enhanced protection program for beachgoers, while not ruling out the potential for a bull shark cull if a population count showed waterways were being “overrun” by the animals.In July, the Resolve Monitor polled voters on their attitude to shark mitigation measures. Aerial drone surveillance was by far the most popular: 62 per cent of respondents believed drones were sufficient; 47 per cent favoured shark nets; 40 per cent supported helicopter spotting; and just 20 per cent thought a cull was acceptable.In the state survey, One Nation’s increased primary vote diverged from recent federal polling that showed the party’s vote falling after a rapid rise. The 25 per cent support in June and July marks a three point bump from the previous survey, in April and May.Since the start of the year, the primary vote for both major parties has fallen dramatically.In January, NSW Labor recorded a primary vote of 37 per cent, a figure largely static since the middle of 2025, but the party’s vote has cratered since then. The latest Resolve figure is the second time the Minns government’s ratings have fallen below 30 per cent this year – it recorded the same result in March.The Liberals have fared just as poorly, falling five points from a primary vote of 28 per cent in November before Kellie Sloane was elected to replace Mark Speakman.Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.More:Resolve Political MonitorFor subscribersOne NationChris MinnsKellie SloaneFrom our partners