Oleshky Ceasefire: How Russia Exploited It, and What Now?

As the spotlight fell on the humanitarian mission in Oleshky, Russia’s reinforcements remained largely out of sight. On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of using the truce to fortify its positions just across the Dnipro River from Ukrainian-controlled Kherson.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Unfortunately, under the cover of a humanitarian operation in Oleshky, the Russian army carried out a major rotation of personnel and equipment on the left bank. Additional occupation forces were brought into Oleshky and the surrounding community,” Zelensky wrote on X. “The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must present proposals for additional protection of lives in Kherson from Russian terror,” he added. But Zelensky’s statement seemed to contradict those of Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, just a week earlier, when Lubinets dismissed claims that Russia was using the ceasefire to reinforce its units. “This equipment was used exclusively for demining and immediately returned after the demining work was completed,” Lubinets said. How did this happen? New problem on top of unresolved issue Warnings that Russia would use the ceasefire in Oleshky to improve its military positions came from all sides, almost immediately. “Everyone expects that after this ‘delivery,’ Kherson will be hit by everything that can fly, and the destruction will be even greater,” one Kherson businessman told Kyiv Post. Other Topics of Interest 19 People May Be Trapped in Underground School Shelter Leveled by Russian Bombs Two rescuers were wounded in three Russian drone attacks on emergency crews working at the strike site on Sunday. The Oleshky truce, which lasted five full days, is also unusual given Russia’s past attitude toward ceasefires, which begs the question – why? Ukrainian drone operators have reportedly gained an upper hand over the area near Kherson during the past year. According to Russian military correspondents, Ukrainian drones controlled virtually all movements up to 20-30 kilometers (12-18 miles) deep into the left bank. Russian drone operators, in dugouts, were said to be left not only without the ability to recharge their devices but also without food. But Ukrainian military observations said Russian forces made up for much of what they had lost during the five-day ceasefire. “They brought in everything – from fresh cigarettes and instant noodles to new infantry and military equipment,” said the spokesperson of Ukraine’s 34th Marine Brigade tasked with defending the sector. Another soldier said the saved lives from Oleshky might pave the way for more deaths. “We are talking about saving several hundred people, but as a result of these actions, Russian forces have been reinforced to such an extent that even more people could suffer,” one of the participants in the operation said. In short, observers noted that Russia is now in a better position than it was before the Oleshky truce thanks to the needed reinforcements and troop rotations – but what does it mean for those in Oleshky? Still a good thing. But not entirely. White House portrayal vs. Oleshky reality US First Lady Melania Trump said that around 800 people were evacuated from Oleshky. Zelensky, through Lubinets, presented her with the Order of Princess Olga, First Class – a top state award from Ukraine. At a high-profile reception in Washington, Melania Trump praised both the Ukrainian side, which had evacuated desperate residents of Oleshky, and the Russian side, which – despite agreeing to the truce – had occupied the city to begin with. The 800 figure might also be overstated. Of the 1,500-2,500 people believed to have remained in Oleshky, according to various estimates, only several hundred were evacuated – fewer than the 800 claimed by Melania Trump. A Russian propagandist also accidentally revealed the actual scale of the evacuation: 17 buses carrying evacuees headed towards Ukraine, while four traveled towards Russia and the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. His Telegram channel was deleted shortly after, and he disappeared. Assuming 800 Ukrainians were indeed evacuated from Oleshky, more have ostensibly remained, according to Ukraione’s Kherson Regional Military Administration. One official also accused Russia of using locals as human shields. “According to preliminary data, more than 1,000 people remain there. And this does not change the situation in any way: Whether there were 2,000 people, now 1,000, or even just 10, the Russians will continue to hide behind these people’s backs,” said Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, deputy head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration. Reports also suggest that humanitarian aid has failed to reach everyone who stayed behind. Why stay behind? Kyiv Post’s local sources say the main reason for some choosing to stay was that they still had a house of their own and firewood to heat it. People are afraid to abandon their homes, knowing that if they are left empty, Russian troops will almost certainly occupy them, turn them into military positions, and make them targets for Ukrainian forces. “Staying under occupation in the middle of active hostilities is difficult, but at least you are in your own home,” a relative of one of those who stayed told Kyiv Post, paraphrasing the person’s words. “Traveling between rented apartments in Ukraine or in occupied territory, without money or good health, in the middle of winter, would not be easy either.” Despite the potential military consequences as a result of the truce, the main goal was still achieved: Several hundred Ukrainians were rescued from Russian occupation, and they will now be able to receive medical care and reunite with their families in Ukrainian-controlled territory. Now the question is whether the good still outweighs the bad.