Monsoon to begin exit: Dry air taking control, rain deficit hangs at 13%

Early signs of the southwest monsoon's retreat are emerging as dry winds enter northwest India. With rainfall still 13% below normal, any revival now hinges on new Bay of Bengal systems.Several regions, including parts of western and central India, have received near-normal rainfall. (Photo: Windy)After weeks of active weather systems and intermittent bursts of heavy rainfall, signs are emerging that the southwest monsoon may be beginning its gradual retreat from parts of the country.Fresh data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows India's cumulative rainfall since June 4 remains 13% below normal, highlighting the uneven nature of this year's monsoon season.The latest state-wise rainfall map paints a mixed picture. Several regions, including parts of western and central India, have received near-normal rainfall, while large areas across the Indo-Gangetic plains, the Northeast and southern peninsular India continue to struggle with deficits. Weather experts say a significant atmospheric change is now underway. Dry northwesterly winds are pushing into northwest India, replacing the moisture-laden monsoon flow that has dominated the region for much of the season.As a result, rainfall activity is expected to reduce sharply across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan and adjoining areas over the coming days. The intrusion of dry air is also expected to lower humidity levels and bring some relief from the sticky conditions experienced in recent weeks. However, the same process will suppress cloud formation and rainfall across large parts of north, west and northwest India.Satellite imagery and weather models indicate that the monsoon trough has shifted closer to the Himalayan foothills, a classic sign associated with weaker rainfall over the plains of northwest India.Unless a fresh low-pressure system moves inland or the monsoon trough shifts southward again, rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued.The rainfall deficit remains a concern, particularly for agriculture-dependent regions. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka and parts of the Northeast continue to report below-normal seasonal rainfall, raising concerns about crop health and soil moisture availability.Meteorologists caution that while the monsoon is not ending immediately, the atmosphere is showing early signs of transition.Any revival in rainfall over northern and western India will depend on the formation of new low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and their ability to draw moisture back into the heart of the country.For now, the message is clear: the monsoon is losing momentum, and dry air is beginning to take control of northwest India.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Aug 17, 2026 11:46 IST