Labor slumps to new lows in two Victorian polls

With less than three weeks until the November 28 Victorian election, a DemosAU poll has Labor’s primary vote plunging seven points since September to just 18%, only one point ahead of the Greens. The Resolve poll isn’t as dramatic, but Labor’s 22% is still an equal record low. In both polls, the Coalition would easily win the election with 55–56% of the two-party vote against Labor. In all recent polls, the Coalition has gained to take a big lead. They are likely to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats in their own right. The graph below shows how bad the polls have become for Labor. Labor Two Party Preferred Vote in Victorian polls. If the DemosAU poll is accurate, Labor is facing a near-total wipeout, losing left-wing inner city seats to the Greens and other seats to the Coalition and One Nation. Liberal preference recommendations between Labor and the Greens could be important. I believe the recent poll movement is because people are now focusing on the state election, and they want Labor out. Labor has governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27. This article also includes a Victorian Pakenham seat poll and two more federal polls. DemosAU Victorian poll A Victorian DemosAU and PremierNational poll for The Herald Sun, conducted October 30 to November 5 from a sample of 1,562, gave the Coalition 33% of the primary vote (up three since the mid-September DemosAU poll), One Nation 21% (up one), Labor 18% (down seven), the Greens 17% (up three) and all Others 11% (steady). After preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 56–44, a four-point gain for the Coalition. On these primary votes, one of Labor or the Greens would make the final two in most seats, surpassing One Nation on the other left party’s preferences. Labor premier Ben Carroll’s net positive score slumped 16 points -30 (47% negative, 17% positive). Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was up five points to +13 (38% positive, 25% negative). One Nation state leader Warren Pickering’s was down two points to -20 (43% negative, 23% positive). Greens leader Ellen Sandell was at -20 (38% negative, 18% positive). In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 36%, Carroll 28% and Pickering 19%. Wilson led Carroll by 48–30 head to head. Some figures are from The Poll Bludger. Victorian Resolve poll A Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, conducted November 2–7 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up two since the early October Resolve poll), One Nation 23% (steady), Labor 22% (down three), the Greens 13% (down two), independents 6% (up two) and others 7% (up two). This is tied with January 2025 for Labor’s worst primary vote in this poll. No two-party estimate was provided, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a Coalition lead over Labor by about 55–45, a three-point gain for the Coalition. Carroll’s net likeability was down five points to -16, his worst since he replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July. Wilson’s has improved in each poll since July and is now at a record high of +24 (up one since October and up 11 since July). Pickering’s has also improved in every poll since August and is now at +9 (up one since October and up nine since August). In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 35% (up six), Carroll 21% (down one) and Pickering 15% (up one). By 48–38, respondents were comfortable with the Coalition governing in partnership with One Nation, but by 50–38 they were not comfortable with Labor governing with the Greens. Victorian Pakenham seat poll Pickering is One Nation’s candidate for Pakenham, which Labor won by 50.4–49.6 against the Liberals at the 2022 election. A TKW Research/DemosAU poll for The Herald Sun, conducted November 4–8 from a small sample of 484, gave Pickering 40% of the primary vote, the Liberals 24% and Labor 14% with no other candidates listed. Despite Pickering’s 16-point lead on primary votes, he’s tied after preferences at 50–50 with the Liberals, indicating a strong flow of Labor and other preferences to the Liberals. Seat polls are unreliable. Candidate nominations for the election Candidate nominations for the Victorian election closed on Monday. ABC election analyst Antony Green said there are a total of 734 lower house candidates for the 88 seats, an average of 8.3 per seat. That’s down slightly from a record 740 candidates in 2022. Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, the Greens and the Victorian Socialists are contesting all 88 seats and Family First 71, with 91 independents. The upper house has eight regions that each return five members for a total of 40 seats. The scrapping of group ticket voting has resulted in the number of upper house candidates plunging from a record 454 in 2022 to 303, the lowest since 2010. There are an average of 12.4 groups per region, down from a record 22.2 in 2022. Federal Spectre poll A national Spectre Strategy poll, conducted October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 2,093, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (up two since the mid-July Spectre poll), Labor 25% (down three), the Coalition 24% (up one), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 10% (down one). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52–48, a two-point gain for One Nation. The Coalition led Labor by 53–47, a four-point gain for the Coalition. Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was down 14 points to a record low of -25 (54% unfavourable, 29% favourable). Angus Taylor’s was up five points to -2 (29% unfavourable, 27% favourable). Pauline Hanson’s was down three points to -4 (45% unfavourable, 41% favourable). In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 34%, Hanson 30% and Taylor 22%. Morgan poll A national Morgan poll, conducted October 26 to November 8 from a sample of 2,574, gave Labor 25.5% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the mid-October Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up two), the Coalition 22% (down 1.5), the Greens 15% (down 0.5) and all Others 13% (up 0.5). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a one-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 51–49, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. Morgan’s polls are taken over a fortnight. Weekly breakdowns had Labor leading the Coalition by 51.5–48.5 in late October, but only by 50.5–49.5 in early November. Essential poll: additional questions on Melbourne Cup Additional questions on the Melbourne Cup from the late October Essential poll were released on Cup Day (November 3). On interest level, 68% (up 13) said they had low or no interest, 23% (down three) moderate interest and 9% (down nine) high interest. On betting, 46% (up six and up 11 since 2024) said they’re not interested in the Cup and won’t place a bet, 25% (up one) said they rarely bet on horse races, but would watch the Cup and place a bet, 17% (down one) said they would watch the Cup but not bet and 12% (down six) said they regularly bet on horse races.