Jio Platforms IPO may list at Rs 1,366 as GMP signals 22% gain

Jio Platforms shares could list at around Rs 1,366 on Wednesday, October 28, indicating a potential listing gain of 22.07% over the upper price band of Rs 1,119, according to the latest grey market premium (GMP) data.Ahead of the listing, foreign brokerage Nomura initiated coverage on the company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,340, implying an upside of around 20% over the IPO price.The Jio Platforms IPO's GMP stood at Rs 247 as of 7:37 am on October 28. Based on the upper price band of Rs 1,119, the estimated listing price works out to Rs 1,366.However, the GMP is an unofficial indicator of investor sentiment and does not guarantee the actual listing price. The final price will depend on demand and trading conditions when the shares begin trading. Nomura has valued Jio Platforms at 12 times its estimated December 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), placing it at par with Bharti Airtel, according to the brokerage's assessment.WHY NOMURA IS BULLISH ON JIO PLATFORMSNomura believes Jio's heavy investment cycle in 5G infrastructure is largely behind it, which could help the company generate stronger cash flows. “We believe the heavy 5G investment cycle is largely behind for Jio, with capex falling to 23 per cent of revenue in FY26 from 35 per cent in FY25, freeing up significant cash flow. The balance sheet is improving rapidly with net debt/equity (including deferred payment obligations) falling from 0.56x in FY24 to 0.37x in FY26, and we expect the company to be net debt-free by FY29,” the brokerage said.Nomura also highlighted Jio's position in India's wireless market. The company had a 41.7% share of wireless subscribers, excluding machine-to-machine connections, in August 2026, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).Its extensive 5G coverage, higher data usage per subscriber and lower customer churn could help Jio narrow the average revenue per user (ARPU) gap with Bharti Airtel, the brokerage said.Jio's data usage per subscriber is 27% higher than Airtel's, while its monthly churn rate stands at 1.6%, according to Nomura.TARIFF HIKES COULD BOOST REVENUENomura identified potential industry-wide tariff increases as an immediate trigger for higher ARPU. It expects a 15% industry-wide tariff hike in November-December 2026 to support revenue growth, according to the brokerage's note.“The 15 per cent industry wide tariff hike in November–December 2026 could be an immediate trigger for higher ARPU, while in the medium-to-long term, Jio will likely lean towards tariff repair via a shift from flat unlimited data bundles to tiered pricing, and/or premiumisation via network slicing on 5G,” Nomura said.ARPU is a key metric for telecom operators because it measures the average revenue generated per user. Higher tariffs, a shift towards premium plans and increased use of digital services could improve this metric, although the outcome will depend on pricing decisions and customer response.Nomura also sees potential in Jio's fixed broadband business, where the company has expanded its subscriber base through fibre and fixed wireless access (FWA) services.Jio's fixed broadband base reached 2.86 crore subscribers by June 2026, compared with 1.47 crore for Bharti Airtel, according to the brokerage. Nomura attributed Jio's expansion largely to its increasingly aggressive rollout strategy using FWA and UBR-based technology.India's home broadband penetration stands at around 21%, compared with a global average of more than 70%, according to Nomura. The brokerage estimates that this leaves an addressable market of around 30 crore households and provides scope for growth over the next decade.“We believe Jio's FWA model is capital-efficient, as it leases CPE equipment from third-party lessees, unlike FTTH, where 25 per cent of home passes don't get converted and the fiber cost is sunk,” Nomura said.JIO PLATFORMS IPO GMP TRENDThe grey market premium has remained in the Rs 240-250 range over the past week, indicating an estimated listing gain of around 21%-22% based on the upper price band.The GMP stood at Rs 250 on October 23, before easing to Rs 247 on October 24 and October 25. It slipped to Rs 245 on October 26, recovered to Rs 248 on October 27 and stood at Rs 247 on the morning of October 28.The latest reading is slightly below the Rs 250 recorded on October 23. While the premium has fluctuated, it has remained close to the Rs 247 level in recent sessions.The Jio Platforms IPO was subscribed 21.36 times by the close of bidding on October 23, according to the subscription data provided.The qualified institutional buyers (QIB) category, excluding anchor investors, was subscribed 67.15 times, while the non-institutional investors (NII) category was subscribed 13.99 times. The retail investor portion was subscribed 2.76 times.The strong institutional demand contributed to the overall subscription figure, although subscription levels and grey market premiums do not guarantee listing gains.Uday Patil, Executive Director at PL Capital, said the listing of Jio Platforms was a milestone for the Indian capital market, highlighting the company's position in India's digital infrastructure sector.“Listing of JIO platform is definitely a milestone in the Indian capital market. It is a major Indian digital infrastructure business with substantial growth opportunities. Jio has more than 500 million subscribers and a large telecom network, alongside broadband, enterprise technology, cloud and AI opportunities. Large Growth Potential with Attractive higher revenue per user, home broadband, enterprise services and monetisation of digital platforms could support future growth.“Execution will determine how much value these opportunities create. It is definitely a long term bet & every investor would like to have the share in their portfolio.”Patil's comments point to the company's potential growth opportunities across telecom, broadband, enterprise technology, cloud and artificial intelligence. However, the extent to which these opportunities translate into value will depend on execution.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- Ends