Israel’s exit polls may have ‘fundamental problem’ after Netanyahu bloc surprise, pollster says

OCTOBER 29, 2026 18:37Israeli pollsters significantly underestimated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc in the latest election, Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research and Maariv's pollster, acknowledged in an interview with Nissim Mishal and Anat Davidov on 103FM, as he attempted to explain the discrepancies between the polls and the election results.According to Lazar, there is no room for doubt."The pollsters were wrong, all of them. Some more than others, but there was a mistake. A serious mistake. I could argue that the last poll I conducted was on the Thursday before the election and that things happened between then and the election, but that is not really the reason. We were wrong. We saw a picture that ultimately turned out to be different. We gave the opposition a majority, and we saw that the Netanyahu coalition had a majority."Lazar elaborated on the extent of the polling failure."We will have to conduct a full assessment of what happened once we see the final results. We need to wait another day. We underestimated the Netanyahu bloc, underestimated Benjamin Netanyahu's strength. We saw more or less the same thing in the 2015 election, how on the final day of the election he managed to increase Likud's strength."Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu casts his vote at a polling station in Jerusalem during Election Day, October 27, 2026. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)He then explained how election polling is conducted and what the discrepancies might indicate about Israeli voters."There are two things that need to be done correctly with an exit poll: correctly distribute the polling stations, thoroughly examine how the exit poll polling stations were selected, look at the difference between the nationwide distribution and the distribution of those polling stations, and conduct another examination of the gap between the exit poll ballot box and the actual ballot box next to it."The exit poll ballot box is supposed to represent the actual ballot box beside it. This is not the first time. There may be a fundamental problem here, either with the polling stations and how the exit polls are positioned and constructed, or with how the Israeli public behaves ahead of elections."'Neither side won'Addressing accusations that the polls were intended to manipulate public opinion, Lazar said:"Clearly, everything will head in that direction. There are more serious things we will need to examine. We examine ourselves after every election campaign. There is no election in which we produce results that match the parties' results exactly. Generally, we produce much better results when it comes to the blocs. There was the 2015 election, when there was also a similar discrepancy. We corrected ourselves in the election campaigns that followed. We will examine, correct, and hope that in the next rounds it will work better."Lazar also addressed the issue of double-envelope ballots and the changes they could bring to the final distribution of Knesset seats."In my assessment, apart from the fact that the Arab parties have a smaller share of the overall vote, this should reflect what we are seeing in the Jewish sector. It could push the Reservists' Party and the Economic Party above the electoral threshold. They are short by around 40,000 votes, and they may reach that number."There is a certain chance that it could instead go to the Jewish Home party and Naftali Bennett, who were short by 1,400 votes, or Meretz, which was short by several thousand votes. Once again, a party could be on the threshold. We need to wait."Lazar explained that the remaining ballots could also affect the balance between the political blocs, although he believes the overall election picture is relatively clear."The Arab parties could lose one or two seats, and there could be movement between the blocs. There are also the surplus-vote agreements. I think the overall picture looks fairly clear. Neither side won, and the entire argument is about who lost less. Now the question is how to form a government with this situation, or whether to go to new elections, where there are also assessments of what might happen."Follow us on Google