Is It the Dems’ Big Night? Watch These Eight Races With Early Results.

One fact that’s generally true about elections is that if the wind is blowing one way in state A, it’s probably blowing in the same direction in states B, C, D, and so on. In 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in all seven swing states. They were all close, but they all went the same way. Call it the domino theory of American elections: If one state (or district) goes a certain way, other states and districts are likely to, as well, because what voters are experiencing and thinking is not so different in Pennsylvania or Arizona.With that in mind, here are eight races whose results we might know early that I’ll be watching as possible omens for what kind of night we can expect. All the races below are listed in this Cook Political Report web page of House races ranked by “likely R,” “lean D,” and so on. You may want to keep this handy as you settle in for the evening. Also, the bolded state and district names below link to each contest’s Ballotpedia page, where you can learn more about each than you can possibly remember. KENTUCKY-06: Polls in the Bluegrass State close at 6 p.m., the earliest in the country (along with Indiana, although the latter crosses time zones). Kentucky’s 6th district includes Lexington (a large college town) but also a number of surrounding rural counties. The Republican incumbent is retiring, so the race features Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado. Cook gives the district a Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, of R+7, which is normally pretty safe, but this year Cook has it as a toss-up. Trump won the district by 15 points, so if Dembo wins, or even just keeps it close, that’s a good sign for the Democrats.VIRGINIA-01: The polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m., so there’s a decent chance that we’ll start to know the results of some congressional races pretty early in the night. In Virginia’s 1st district, which hugs the Chesapeake Bay and its estuaries north of Newport News, Democrat Shannon Taylor is challenging Republican incumbent Rob Wittman. Cook has it as an R+8 district but says the race is a toss-up. Trump won the district by 5 percent two years ago, and the district hasn’t had a Democratic representative since the 1970s (though of course it has changed shape over those years due to redistricting). A Taylor win would suggest a big night.VIRGINIA-02: Just south of the 1st, centered around Virginia Beach and Norfolk, this district is about as evenly split as any in the country—Trump won it in 2024 by 49.3 to 49.1 percent. Democrat Elaine Luria won the seat from a Republican in 2018; then she lost it to GOP incumbent Jen Kiggans in 2022. Luria is running to win it back, and Cook now rates the race “lean D.” People are mostly expecting a Luria win here. If she doesn’t, that could foretell a disappointing night.FLORIDA-14: The Florida polls also close at 7 p.m. The state’s Republicans gerrymandered the 14th to get rid of Democrat Kathy Castor—the district was redrawn to include a lot less of Tampa and a lot more of the outlying rural counties. Trump won the areas making up this new district by 11 points. But Castor is holding her own against Republican Mike Beltran. Cook gives it an R+4 but rates it a toss-up. A Castor hold here would be an embarrassment for Governor Ron DeSantis and an indicator that Democrats should win a lot of districts like this.FLORIDA-22: This is an open seat created by the DeSantis gerrymander. The state’s current 22nd district is represented by Democrat Lois Frankel, but she’s now running in the 23rd. So this is an open seat where Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar. This is rural southern Florida, just north of the Everglades. Cook has it at R+4 but again rates it a toss-up. A Dandiya win in this district that was created as a GOP gimme would help suggest a blue wave. SOUTH CAROLINA-01: This is Nancy Mace’s district, which runs along the coast and includes most of Charleston. She left to run for governor (and didn’t make the runoff), so this race is between Democrat Nancy LeCore, a Navy veteran, and Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt. Cook says it’s R+6 but rates it a toss-up. There’s been one recent public poll, which LeCore led by two points. Mace served three terms, defeating a one-term Democrat who was the first of his party to hold the seat since the 1980s, so a LeCore win would really buck recent history.That’s six to keep an eye on. Finally, here are two more in early-closing states where a Democratic win would be more of a surprise and would really suggest that a tsunami is forming.INDIANA-05: This rural district north of Indianapolis is represented by Republican Victoria Spartz, a serious MAGA loyalist who’s faced ethics charges. Her Democratic challenger is J.D. Ford. It’s an R+8 district that Cook switched from “likely R” to “lean R” late last week.VIRGINIA-05: And finally, here’s one that foreshadows a huge Democratic night if Tom Perriello, who represented this Charlottesville-based area for a term during the Obama years, manages to upset GOP incumbent John McGuire. It’s an R+6 district, so it’s not any different from any of the above, but Cook rates it as “likely R.” Obviously, there are a lot of races out there that are important and that a lot more people will be interested in. I choose these only because we might know the results early, and these eight results will probably tell us what kind of night we’re in for. Fingers crossed!