India ends 2026 monsoon with 13% rain deficit, 4th lowest since 2001

India’s southwest monsoon has officially ended after delivering one of the weakest rainfall seasons in the country in recent years.The 2026 monsoon ended with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, making it the fourth-lowest rainfall season since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).The country received about 87 per cent of its normal monsoon rainfall during the June-September season, with rainfall remaining uneven across regions and months. The season’s long-period average (LPA), based on the 1971-2020 period, is 868.6 mm. Overcast skies are seen as monsoon weather arrives over a city. (Photo: PTI) A total of 282 districts, making up 38% of the total region across India, received deficient rainfall. The weak monsoon was not entirely unexpected. The IMD had flagged the possibility of a deficient season months before the rains began, with El Nino emerging as a major concern. (Source: IMD) MONSOON'S EXTREME SWINGSThe 2026 monsoon showed a pronounced stop-start pattern, with rainfall swinging sharply from week to week. The week ending July 8 recorded a 45.4% surplus, but this was followed by a 51.1% deficit the very next week, the IMD said.After a brief improvement in late July and early August, rainfall remained below normal through most of August and September, with the week ending September 9 recording a 36.3% deficit. Vehicles move on a road amid heavy rain. (Photo: PTI) The final week of the season saw another sharp reversal, with rainfall at 49% above normal.The wide swings demonstrated how the season’s overall rainfall masked considerable variability in its distribution and timing.IMD HAD WARNED OF BELOW AVERAGE MONSOONIn its first long-range forecast issued on April 13, IMD predicted that India would receive 92 per cent of its LPA rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon, with a model error of 5 per cent. It classified the season as most likely to be below normal.By the end of May, IMD revised its estimate slightly lower to 90 per cent of LPA, again placing the season in the below-normal category. The department cited the increasing likelihood of El Nino conditions during the monsoon as one of the important factors influencing the forecast.With the season ultimately ending at about 87 per cent of LPA, the actual rainfall was roughly three percentage points below IMD’s May estimate and five percentage points below its April projection. That puts the final outcome within the uncertainty range of the original forecast, although the rainfall distribution through the season was highly uneven.- Ends