Holborn by-election: Can Zack Polanski defy Andy Burnham Red tide and pull off shock Green win?

Armies march on their stomachs.Andy Burnham at Labour’s conference in LiverpoolGettyExactly how the new Prime Minister intends to pay for his radical Left-wing reforms is far from clear.But as far as the north London by-election goes that is probably of little concern.It was a bold move, even then.The Greens are stronger further to the east in the capital.His decision not to take part in the vote on the motion, instead leaving the party’s rally in Brighton to campaign in the by-election, also hardly smacks of firm leadership.Zack Polanski campaigning in Holborn and St PancrasAFP/GettyFor Mr Polanski to pull off an historic victory, in what has been a Labour seat since its creation in 1983, would need the cards to fall almost perfectly in place for him.Of course, he may still win, that is the nature of political shocks.They may come second in around twenty or so constituencies across the capital.But under the first-past-the-post electoral system there are no prizes for second place and the two surveys add further weight to the view that Mr Polanski is very much fighting an uphill battle.Labour's candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, Sagal Abdi-Wali, speaks to supporters during her campaign launchGettyIf the Green Party leader is going to be defeated, then all eyes will be on the margin of the loss.If he can keep it down to a few thousand, he can argue that Holborn and St Pancras was always a long shot and that he might fare better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election.Read MoreBut if he trails Ms Abdi-Wali by a hefty margin, he will inevitably face growing questions about his leadership.But in the brutal world of politics, loser leaders tend not to last long.