Election interference by Iran, Russia, or China may help PM Netanyahu, not hurt him - opinion

ByDAN PERRYAUGUST 8, 2026 16:17The controversial new head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), David Zini, has warned about foreign interference in Israel’s upcoming election, suggesting the usual suspects: Russia, China, and Iran. Since Zini is considered a political appointee of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, everyone’s wondering what the angle may be – and they may be missing the obvious.With nearly every poll showing the governing coalition headed toward defeat, it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that it is laying the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of the outcome.As I have written before, Netanyahu may well attempt some version of US President Donald Trump’s post-defeat 2020 strategy: flooding the public sphere with false claims of irregularities in the hope of undermining confidence in the electoral process.In Israel’s parliamentary system, with all the complexities of coalition-building, the goal would not necessarily be to overturn the vote itself but to create enough political turmoil to deter the opposition bloc from forming a government that depends on an Arab party. That might somehow enable Netanyahu to stay a factor.Maj.-Gen. David Zini attends a ceremony held at the IDF Central Command headquarters in Jerusalem, July 8, 2024 (credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)None of this means the threat of foreign interference is imaginary. Liberal democracies around the world have become prime targets for sophisticated electoral influence operations conducted through social media, artificial intelligence, coordinated networks of fake accounts, deep-fakes, and the systematic amplification of existing political divisions.Israel’s paper-ballot system makes direct manipulation of vote counting extremely difficult, but manipulating public opinion is another matter entirely.The real question is not whether hostile foreign powers will try to interfere in Israel’s election. They almost certainly will. The more interesting question is whose interests they are likely to serve. And here the answer is clearer – and more surprising – than might appear.Any significant interference from Russia, Iran, China, and perhaps Qatar would almost certainly follow a by now well-established pattern of influence operations as central instruments of foreign policy. Such campaigns exploit grievance and resentment, reward the most inflammatory voices, deepen mistrust, and intensify polarization.Their broader objective is to make democratic societies more divided, harder to govern, and less capable of pursuing coherent policy. Strategically, the goal is to weaken target countries and separate them from their allies, leaving them isolated and vulnerable. For the autocracies of the world, this is far preferable to a strong, stable, united democratic bloc.In Israel’s case, that logic points in only one direction. And this is where things become interesting.One might naturally assume that Israel’s enemies would want to weaken the current government – after all, it is genuinely despised across much of the world – and therefore help its opponents. That assumption is understandable, but ultimately superficial and mistaken.Russia’s track record demonstrates exactly why.Across Europe and North America, Moscow has repeatedly backed populist right-wing movements – the champions of “the people” against “the elites.”Its bots, algorithms, and influence networks have consistently been deployed on behalf of political forces that weaken democratic institutions, undermine confidence in elections, challenge traditional alliances, attack independent media, and deepen domestic polarization.Israel's interests and enemiesIn the United States, intelligence agencies concluded that Russian interference in the 2016 election overwhelmingly benefited Trump. Viktor Orban’s Hungary has become Russia’s closest ally within the European Union. In Romania, Eurosceptic right-wing candidates received an enormous boost from Russian influence operations a couple of years ago. Moldova has repeatedly confronted Russian attempts to weaken President Maia Sandu’s pro-Western government. This year, Russia also supported forces in Armenia seeking to reverse Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western orientation.The individual cases differ, but the strategic pattern is remarkably consistent. Russia strengthens right-wing governments that weaken their own countries.Viewed through that lens, Israel presents an especially straightforward case. From the perspective of Moscow – or its ally in Tehran – the current Israeli government bears responsibility for Israel’s deepest diplomatic isolation in generations. If it remains in power, Israel will face a genuine national emergency while its enemies rejoice.Why? The answer is simple: Israel’s relations with its allies have deteriorated dramatically. Across Western Europe, public opinion has turned sharply against Israel, especially among younger generations.In the United States – without whose support Israel would face existential danger – roughly 60% of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, compared with the broad support that existed only a few years ago. Israel also faces unprecedented legal and diplomatic pressure in international institutions.Nor does the damage stop with foreign policy. Hostile states understand Israel’s internal fault lines as well. They recognize the intensity of disputes surrounding Netanyahu’s authoritarian “reforms,” military service, religion and state, West Bank settlements, and relations between Jews and Arabs.They also understand that the government has blocked necessary reforms concerning the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community in ways that pose an existential long-term threat to Israel. Net emigration is accelerating. One more Netanyahu term, and it could become a flood.None of these developments serves Israel’s national interest. Together they constitute an enormous gift to Israel’s enemies. Even if one accepts the argument that this government’s policies weakened Hezbollah or Hamas, there is little doubt that Israel’s overall strategic position has deteriorated badly.Israel’s enemies have no reason to hope for a moderate government that rebuilds international alliances, restores domestic political stability, addresses the ultra-Orthodox challenge, combats organized crime, strengthens democratic institutions, and restores Israel’s international legitimacy. They want it even weaker, more divided, and increasingly isolated.What about the Palestinians, you ask? Don’t Israel’s enemies worry that the Israeli Right will seize more land and build more settlements? Not especially. They can do math, and so understand that continued settlement expansion brings Israel closer to an irreversible bi-national reality that ultimately destroys the Zionist project.True, the Kahanist far Right – which is somewhat more intelligent than the Likud – dreams of mass expulsion. But that, too, would be welcome news for Israel’s enemies: such a move would complete Israel’s international isolation, including from the United States.In short, Netanyahu has friends.How would such interference work? By now, the playbook is rather scientific.Target populations are bombarded with false social media content that appears entirely authentic. Anonymous accounts, coordinated amplification, AI-generated images, emotionally manipulative videos, and precisely targeted algorithms create an online environment in which outrage spreads effortlessly.The objective is to intensify polarization through relentless repetition, ensuring that every potential right-wing voter arrives at the polls angry, convinced they are fighting evil incarnate, and highly motivated to vote.If Israel were still a country where the Shin Bet operated independently of politics, Zini’s warning would deserve to be taken entirely seriously, and one would expect decisive action. There are ways to counter this threat. Just ask the Romanians, who eventually uncovered what was happening, annulled the 2024 election, and held a repeat vote.The Shin Bet should expose and thwart foreign influence operations regardless of whom they benefit politically. Even if foreign interference were helping parties aligned with the governing coalition, Israel’s security establishment should pursue it with the same determination it would show if the beneficiary were a far-left or Arab party.What are the chances of that? Few Israelis today would consider them high. This too is part of the mutation that has afflicted the Jewish State.The writer is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, and publisher of danperry.substack.comFollow us on Google