Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, as vote counting continues

Nov. 14, 2026, 8:52 PM UTCNBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola speaks during an election night watch party in Anchorage, Alaska.Justin Sullivan / GettyFormer Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.See live results here.Alaska’s is the only remaining 2026 Senate race in which the NBC News Decision Desk has not yet made a projection.If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.The race remains uncalled a week after polls close as votes continue to be counted. Alaskans vote heavily by mail and ballots postmarked by Election Day are counted as long as they arrived by Nov. 13 — and a few days later than that for valid overseas voters.In a race with such a narrow margin, these final votes are important, especially given Alaska’s ranked-choice rules.If no candidate wins a majority of the vote on the first ballot, the lowest-placed candidate is eliminated and second-choice votes from that candidate’s supporters are counted. The process then repeats until someone gets a majority.