Decoding Russia’s reliance on Indian petroleum products

Smoke rising from oil infrastructure in the southern Krasnodar region of Russia following a Ukrainian drone strike in April Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil refineries has resulted in the latter importing refined petroleum products from India in significant quantities for the first time, at least since the Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022.As per multiple media reports, including one by the Press Trust of India, Indian refiners sent about one million barrels over the last two months, alongside Turkey and Morocco. Russia’s import of petroleum products from India has remained negligible in the past, accounting for less than one per cent of India’s petroleum exports. The bulk of exports went to countries like the Netherlands, Australia and the UAE.Though the Indian government’s export and import-related data for the last two months is yet to be released, reports have confirmed that the country’s export of refined petroleum products to Russia has sharply increased in the last two months. This has tilted the huge imbalance that existed between the two countries in oil trade, albeit marginally. India continues to remain hugely dependent on Russia for crude.One-fourth of India’s petroleum imports since January 2022 were from Russia and this number remained high before U.S. President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on India in October 2025 for buying crude from Russia.Though this resulted in India sharply cutting down its crude import from Russia, the imports resumed in full swing soon after. In fact, after the U.S. and Israel launched a war with Iran in February this year, the former did a U-turn in its stance and tacitly encouraged Russian crude supplies into the market to negate the impact of Iran’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.Russia accounted for nearly one-third (31.6%) of India’s crude imports as of June 2026. India imported $531 million worth of crude from Russia in June 2026, which is roughly double that of its import from the country in January 2022, a month before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Amid Ukraine’s continued targeting of Russia’s oil refining infrastructure, the Russian Federation’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in July that the country would begin importing oil products to help stabilise the domestic market.Consistent attacksAccording to the International Strategic Action Network for Security, there were at least 17 attacks on 16 different oil refineries in Russia. Eight attacks were targeted at oil depots and oil pumping stations in July. Though reliable data on similar attacks in August are not available yet, they seem to have continued at the same rate, resulting in petrol and diesel shortages.Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that Russia’s refinery crude throughput went from about 5.18 million barrels per day in Q12026 (January to March) in the beginning of the year, to about 3.88 million barrels per day in Q32026. The attacks also seem to have contributed to a surge in crude exports from Russia, as unplanned refinery outages diverted higher volumes of crude to the export market. India, which ranks fourth in oil-refining capacity in the world, has utilised Russia’s sudden demand to export refined petroleum products, mainly from private refineries.Considering the time it would take for Russia to bring its refining capacity back to its earlier capacity, the surge in exports could continue, which will help India in easing its pressure on foreign exchange in the coming months.With inputs from Sneha Gandla, who is interning with The Hindu Data Team Published - September 03, 2026 05:45 pm IST