Coalition challenged by rise of One Nation in Victoria's east

After years running pubs, the cost of doing business has become too much for Jodie Hamill.She's sold up, and now she's turning to One Nation to fix her problems.Speaking to the ABC at a cafe in the Victorian town of Sale as Liberal leader Jess Wilson swept through, she blamed the major parties for making life more difficult."Living in the country, I don't know anyone that's going to vote Liberal or Labor anymore. They're wanting to vote One Nation and give 'em a go,'' she said.It's a sentiment echoed throughout rural and regional Victoria — and indeed suburban Australia — and one that will make this November's Victorian election particularly complex.For both the Labor government trying to retain power, and a Coalition looking to end 12 years in opposition, One Nation's rise has thrown plans into disarray. Published polling shows One Nation attracting at least a quarter of Victorian voters.The four state seats in Gippsland — Morwell, Gippsland South and Gippsland East, which are held by the Nationals, and Narracan, which is held by the Liberals — are particularly vulnerable to a One Nation campaign, Coalition MPs and insiders agree, with the seat of Morwell dubbed "ground zero" for One Nation.One Nation's grand ambitions in eastern VictoriaBaw Baw Councillor and One Nation executive member Ben Lucas has set the bar high for the party's chances in November.Speaking as a local councillor, Cr Lucas said he expected the party would win all four Gippsland seats as well as two spots in the Eastern Victoria Region in the upper house."I'm not cocky about it. It's just all the sentiment. Social media is the closest media to the people, and when you go through the comment section, the comment section never lies,'' Cr Lucas told the ABC.Baw Baw Shire councillor Ben Lucas says he expects Gippsland voters to turn to One Nation at the next election. (Facebook)One Nation is yet to announce a single candidate for Victoria, but Cr Lucas has put his hand up to run.The party's policy offering is also sparse. Cr Lucas says this is deliberate, and says a short sharp campaign in this year's South Australian election yielded seven seats and plenty of success."Election fatigue is so real. Everyone's over it already '' he said."Everyone's just sick of being bullshitted to … [South Australia] was a real effective short sharp campaign, and I reckon we'll do the same thing."Gippsland voters polling to reject major partiesWith no Victorian policies One Nation presents a campaign challenge for Labor and the Coalition, which are now fighting against a vibe.Former Labor official turned pollster Kosmos Samaras said One Nation did not necessarily need policies to win votes."Really it's about the brand and what it represents. And it represents a vehicle for these Victorians to really send a message that they are sick of the two-party system,'' he said.The closure of coal mines, power plants and timber mills in Gippsland have contributed to economic decline, and the government is blamed for the changes.The winding down of traditional industries such as timber logging has devastated small towns reliant on the jobs they once provided. (ABC Gippsland: Madeleine Stuchbery )"Ground zero for One Nation support is in the state seat of Morwell, obviously where that has been significant economic upheaval over the last 20 years and that's where we would expect One Nation's primary vote to be extremely high,'' Mr Samaras said.Mr Samaras said incumbency may save some MPs, particularly Nationals leader Danny O'Brien in Gippsland South, but with Tim Bull retiring in Gippsland East the path for One Nation was easier.In Gippsland East, the Nationals have picked Bairnsdale teacher Gemma Rendell to succeed Mr Bull.Gemma Rendell was announced as the Nationals candidate for Gippsland East last month. (ABC News: Madeleine Stuchbery)Ms Rendell has long held ambitions for community leadership. She's also a proud hunter, who shoots for food and to kill invasive species.A recent poll by Redbridge found One Nation was attracting 32 per cent of the primary vote in the Eastern Victorian upper house region — which covers all of Gippsland. The Coalition were on 28 per cent and Labor on 22 per cent.Coalition digs in against One Nation riseLiberal Leader Jess Wilson is aiming to break a 12-year Labor government in November and this week visited the Gippsland seats as part of her "fresh start tour" where she's visited all 88 electorates during the winter break.The ABC tagged along for several events where Wilson was warmly welcomed, but most of the tour was heavily curated and there was little interaction with voters on the street. Instead she met with businesses, including friendly cafes and even a toy store.Opposition leader Jess Wilson has been campaigning in Gippsland this week, but faces a challenge from a rising One Nation. (ABC News: Madeleine Stuchbery)Former publican Jodie Hamill warmly greeted Ms Wilson in Sale and was photographed alongside her, with the photo posted on the opposition leader's Facebook page.Danny O'Brien admits his party is facing a new challenge from One Nation."I think it's a real threat. Absolutely, we understand people are angry. We understand people are frustrated with the major parties,'' Mr O'Brien said.But he says, and hopes, as the election draws closer, voters' minds will focus on who they actually want to run the government."People need to consider that they want to get rid of Jacinta Allan and Labor, they need to vote for the Nationals and Liberals," he said."Other parties are parties of protest and grievance, and don't necessarily have a solution."I mean, who is the leader? Who is the candidate? What are the policies for Victoria?"Sure, you can be against or concerned about immigration, for example, but that's not something the Victorian government has control over."Convincing fed up voters of these details will go a long way to determine who wins in November.