Bettors are banking against Trump, GOP: See Election Day odds

National PoliticsDawn arrives on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, a day before the midterm elections that will determine political control of Congress. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteBettors on top prediction market platforms believe Democrats will take control of both the House and Senate after the midterm elections Tuesday.As voters head to the polls this Election Day, traders on Kalshi believe Democrats have an overwhelming 94% chance of winning the House, which appears to be the highest odds of the party on the market since November 2024.The forecast, as of Tuesday morning, shows Democrats picking up 235 safe seats, compared to 188 for Republicans. Democrats need at least 218 seats to gain control.For the Senate, which polling experts say remains more of a toss-up, speculators give Democrats a 78% likelihood of flipping it. That includes 53 safe seats for Democrats and 46 safe seats for Republicans.Kalshi’s “American Power Index,” its political version of the S&P 500, is leaning 8.7 percentage points in the Democratic Party’s favor.Wagerers on Polymarket also have Democrats with majorities in both chambers of Congress.Democrats have a 94% chance of controlling the House, according to the platform, with 235 safe seats as opposed to 189 safe seats among the GOP.They also have 77% odds in the Senate, including 53 seats to the GOP’s 46-seat projection.And per Polymarket, there is a 75% chance that Democrats will sweep.Prediction markets have exploded in popularity this year and face a test this midterms as pollsters continue to face speculation over their accuracy, including from President Donald Trump. More than $1.4 billion has been wagered on the platforms over this election cycle.The platforms seem to fall in line with several surveys showing Democrats with an advantage on congressional ballots — but their ability to anticipate what will happen remains to be seen.Rachel Cohen covers national politics as a reporter for Advance Local, focusing on President Donald Trump's second term and Congress. She previously worked as a trending political reporter for NJ.com. Her work...