ANALYSIS: New mayors beware — SA’s local government revolt is waiting for a spark

While most of this week will focus on the results and possible coalition combinations in our metros, it is likely that no matter who takes over in Joburg, they will face a crisis of legitimacy. This problem alone could make it very difficult for many party combinations to improve governance.Amid all of the arguments and debates in our politics, no one quibbles with the statement that many of our councils are failing.The perception of this is revealed in poll after poll. Afrobarometer has found that by the end of last year, 73% of people surveyed said they trusted local government “a little bit or not at all”. It is also shown by the fact that more people will not vote in these elections than will vote. There is, in many conversations about local politics in the lead-up to these elections, a weary resignation.However, the election results could spark a sentiment that is more dangerous and difficult to deal with.For example, in Joburg, there is plenty of evidence that many people are tired of the failures they see as caused by the current ANC-led coalition. Should this group of parties be returned to power, and the ANC continue to hold the position of mayor, some middle-class residents might decide to not accept the result.This would not be in an explicit way. There would be no protests outside the IEC headquarters or what is left of Joburg’s council offices. Instead, they might refuse to accept the legitimacy of the City itself.The first flashpoint could well be an argument about rates. This would be a group of people who feel they are paying large amounts of money to Joburg and receiving nothing in return. Water supplies and electricity are regularly disrupted while their streets are lined with uncollected rubbish bins.These residents could become more organised, and follow the example of some areas of eThekwini in 2023 and simply refuse to pay rates.When told by council officials that their lights and water will be switched off their response will be that it will make no difference to their lives. They already rely on solar and generators for electricity and would have drilled boreholes for water.But there would be another rejection of the legitimacy of the council below the radar.Some residents would refuse to register boreholes, others would give up on the council and take over maintaining roads. Some might just not pay and claim poverty, forcing the City into a long process to prove that they are lying.But others would do this explicitly. They would say publicly, or at community meetings, that they would not pay rates. And when told they have a legal obligation to pay their rates they would simply refuse. The City would not have the legal power to seize their homes, but could try to seize their movable property as part of the debt collection process.In this scenario it is possible to imagine communities barricading themselves against any attempt by the City to do this. Just as people in the Joburg CBD and townships have done when City officials tried to install prepaid meters.This kind of disobedience could even result in situations where residents who are denied permission to set up guard points and gates across public roads simply ignore the decision and do it anyway.This would be the ultimate symbol of the continuing “enclavisation” of our society.In the case of eThekwini, the City had to back down and properly consult residents on the budget.Now, in Joburg, an administration that could include the EFF and MK might refuse to do that, preferring to engage in class warfare.If the opposite were to happen in Joburg, where a coalition led by the DA were to take over, it is possible that other communities would react in a similar way.Were the DA to try to extend current policies around prepaid meters, for example, they could face huge protests.And, crucially, any DA-led administration will have to deal with the South African Municipal Workers’ Union (Samwu).Samwu held protests in Joburg last week, demanding that their members be paid the R10-billion promised 10 years ago in what is still called a “politically facilitated agreement” to deal with salary disparities.They would be aware that a DA administration simply would never make that payment. Which means their members would have nothing to lose by intensifying their actions.And, of course, many of their members would have an affiliation to either the ANC or the SACP, giving them a very real motive to frustrate efforts to improve services.In a worst-case scenario this could see workers and even some managers simply refusing to obey instructions from political authorities.Again, some might do this quietly, on an unofficial but very effective go-slow or work-to-rule.The union could also go above the radar, holding mass protests, showing their defiance and daring the administration to go through the arduous process of firing each person who participated.These scenarios are not confined to Joburg.Cape Town might well see more protests by township residents angered by the likely re-election of the DA in that city. In eThekwini, residents who refused to pay rates to an ANC-led coalition could feel very strongly they should do the same again with an MK party administration.These scenarios may seem extreme or far-fetched. But elements of all of this kind of behaviour are already in place.Middle-class residents have previously refused to pay rates and have disobeyed laws around the registration of boreholes or solar installations. Others have long resisted certain council interventions, while Samwu has a long history of hugely disruptive strikes.Of course, middle-of-the-road coalitions involving the DA and the ANC could prevent any of these scenarios, while clever political management both by communities and new mayors could also prevent any tension from escalating. But all the elements for a major crisis of legitimacy in local government are already present.Just waiting for a spark. DM