Akalis ready for alliance, but why is BJP preferring social distancing?

Politics and elections are ultimately about calculations and opportunities. In Punjab, a familiar political sequence is unfolding. Old allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP are weighing the prospects of reviving ties ahead of the 2027 Assembly polls. The SAD wants to reopen the door, but for the BJP, a reunion with its former Punjab partner comes with two uncomfortable questions. Can it return to an alliance in which it had once played the junior partner? And can it campaign against Punjab's drug menace while sharing a platform with an Akali leadership that has faced drug-related investigations and allegations?As Union Home Minister Amit Shah sharpens the BJP's attack on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government over drugs and predicts an NDA government in Punjab in 2027, speculation about a BJP-SAD reunion has gathered pace. SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal has signalled that his party is open to alliances with parties that share its ideology, while ruling out any understanding with the Congress and AAP. But the BJP is simultaneously projecting itself as a party preparing to independently contest all 117 Assembly seats.The BJP's hesitation is about more than the bitterness of their 2020 split over the now-repealed farm laws. According to political observers, this time the BJP wants a greater say in seat-sharing after years as the junior partner, while the SAD has been on an electoral decline and has the baggage surrounding the drug issue. This could complicate the BJP's campaign in Punjab if they join hands with their former Punjab ally.An August 2026 VoteVibe opinion poll put the BJP's vote share at 12.2% and the Akali Dal's at 11.3%. Together, that adds up to 23.5%. But an alliance might not get all those votes, as BJP supporters might not necessarily vote for Akali Dal candidates, and vice versa. "The Hindu votes of the BJP will transfer to the SAD, but that is not the same case with the Sikh votes of the Akalis for the BJP," political commentator and VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari told India Today Digital.Drugs, meanwhile, have emerged as a central electoral issue in Punjab. In the same opinion poll, 25.7% of respondents identified drugs as Punjab's most important election issue, narrowly ahead of unemployment and migration at 24.3%. Remember, this poll was conducted even before anti-drug activist Parvinder Singh Jhota was shot dead inside a medical store in Mansa. The October 13 murder has made drugs an even bigger issue in the Punjab poll discussion.For the BJP seeking to make the drug trade a defining issue against the Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann-led government, an alliance with the SAD, its ally dating back to 1967, could bring advantages as well as questions about the narcotics record of its prospective partner.The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which promised to eradicate Punjab's drug menace or what's known locally as chitta (white powder), had swept the 2022 Assembly election, winning 92 of the 117 seats.AMIT SHAH'S ANTI-DRUG CAMPAIGN AND THE ALLIANCE BUZZ IN PUNJABThe latest speculation of an alliance followed Amit Shah's remarks at an event in Delhi on Thursday (October 22). He predicted that an NDA government would come to power in Punjab in 2027. Accusing the AAP government of allowing the drug trade to grow, he said the BJP would eliminate the menace by 2029.The NDA remark revived questions about whether the BJP and SAD could repair their relationship. Sukhbir Badal's meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament House on August 7 had already triggered speculation.In June, Badal congratulated PM Modi on completing 12 years in office. After the August meeting, the SAD backed the immediate implementation of the Women's Reservation Bill and called for fair delimitation, supporting the Centre's proposal for a uniform 50% increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats across states.Neither party has publicly confirmed a reunion. According to a report in The Indian Express, a BJP insider said that backchannel negotiations were under way, but that a final decision would be taken by its central leadership.Punjab BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon, on the other hand, emphasised that the party was preparing to contest all 117 seats. "Frankly, largely the NDA means BJP," he said in a press conference, adding that, for Punjab, he felt the NDA meant the BJP. Dhillon made these statements after Union Home Minister's "NDA government" remark sparked speculations of a pre-poll alliance.That assertion by the state president of the saffron camp reflects the BJP's growing ambitions in Punjab. Before the split, in the 2017 Assembly polls, the SAD contested 94 seats and the BJP 23. The strong grassroots presence of the Akalis had shaped that arrangement. If the BJP and Akali Dal join hands again, the BJP will either have to settle for fewer seats or convince the Akali Dal to give up some of the seats it traditionally contests."Today the BJP is stronger than Akalis in Punjab," Amitabh Tiwari said, citing the findings of the VoteVibe opinion poll.Badal, however, has left the door open. Speaking in Chandigarh after an SAD delegation met Governor Gulab Chand Kataria over the state's law and order situation, he accused the Congress and AAP of being Punjab's "biggest enemies" and ruled out an understanding with them."Those who agree with the Akali Dal's ideology and programmes, we are open to a tie-up," he said.The statement offers the BJP an opening. But it doesn't resolve the central question that would the Akalis accept a smaller role in an alliance in which the BJP now expects to have greater influence?BJP LOOKS TO NEGOTIATE FROM STRENGTH IN PUNJABThe electoral balance between the former allies has changed since 2020. Both performed poorly in the 2022 election. The BJP won two seats and the Akali Dal won three in the 117-member Assembly. But the BJP has since sought to expand its independent base. Would it automatically return to the old seat-sharing formula?The VoteVibe opinion poll places the BJP marginally ahead of the SAD in vote intention, at 12.2% against 11.3%. The same survey puts the AAP at 34% and Congress at 30.2%. The BJP and SAD together would have a combined vote intention of 23.5%, although that figure is not a forecast of what a formal alliance would receive.Political commentator and VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari told India Today Digital that the BJP might no longer find the old alliance arrangement beneficial. He said the SAD had weakened since Parkash Singh Badal's time, while some Akali veterans did not see Sukhbir Singh Badal as a strong leader."The BJP is now clearly wanting to play a dominant elder brother's role," Tiwari said. "If SAD accepts BJP's terms and conditions, there might be chances of alliance," he added.IS AMIT SHAH'S ANTI-DRUG CAMPAIGN HAUNTING THE REUNION WITH AKALIS?The BJP-led Centre's anti-drug campaign makes that alliance calculation more complicated in Punjab. The SAD has sought to use the drug issue to attack the AAP government, but the Akali leadership itself has faced scrutiny over allegations related to drugs.Senior SAD leader and former Punjab minister Bikram Singh Majithia has been at the centre of high-profile drug-trafficking and disproportionate-assets investigations. Those investigations and allegations are politically sensitive for the party, even as the SAD accuses the AAP government of failing to tackle drug abuse.The issue has returned to the centre of Punjab politics following Jotha's killing. The 42-year-old, anti-drug activist was shot inside a medical store in Mansa on October 13 after allegedly questioning the sale of addictive substances.For Amit Shah, who is personally leading the Centre's nationwide anti-drug campaign, Punjab's drug problem has become a major issue. Shah, who has pledged to make Punjab drug-free by December 2029, has also made the state's drug trade a key line of attack against the AAP government.An alliance with the SAD could strengthen the BJP's electoral arithmetic, but it could also invite questions about the Akali leadership just as the saffron party seeks to present itself as a force capable of tackling Punjab's drug problem.Political analyst Pramod Kumar of the Institute for Development and Communication, Chandigarh, said drugs had acquired a new political currency in the state."After more than three decades of using drugs to woo voters, politicians have now realised that the noises against drug abuse can get them more political dividends," Kumar told India Today Digital, arguing that parties were trying to outdo one another in blaming their rivals on the issue.He cautioned that Punjab's drug problem could not be reduced to political allegations. Kumar's assessment points to the challenge facing all parties in the state. Attacking political opponents might generate attention, but an effective response requires action against the networks that move drugs from sources of supply to consumers.The August VoteVibe poll gives the BJP and the SAD a reason to consider an alliance, but it also shows the scale of the challenge.CM Bhagwant Mann leads the poll's chief ministerial preference question with 40.1%, compared with 20.6% for Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi and 11.7% for Sukhbir Badal.According to Tiwari, a five-cornered contest involving AAP, Congress, BJP, SAD and Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) could help the ruling party by dividing the opposition vote.For the SAD, an alliance could offer access to a wider electoral arrangement after successive setbacks. For the BJP, it could bring the grassroots network of Akalis and a larger combined vote base. But the BJP would have to decide whether those advantages outweigh the cost of returning to a partnership in which it played a junior partner and the credibility of the anti-drug campaign it is holding in Punjab.- Ends