2026 NFL predictions: Final record for all 32 teams, Super Bowl LXI pick, playoff matchups and MVP winner

Welcome to football's greatest Labor Day tradition: The release of my annual NFL predictions. After spending the past three days locked in a windowless room trying to figure out who's going to win the Super Bowl this year, I am ready to share my predictions with the world. Will you hate them? Probably. Will you hate me? Maybe. If I've noticed one thing over the years, it's that people love to throw the wrong predictions back in my face at the end of the year, but that won't be an issue this year, because I don't plan on getting anything wrong. That being said, if I do end up getting some (or all) of my predictions wrong, feel free to rub it in my face on social media (You can send hate messages to me on X, and I also started a TikTok because my Gen Z nephews told me that no one uses X anymore, so feel free to make fun of me there). Anyway, before we get to my predictions, let me explain how things will work here: I'll go through each division and predict each team's final record. After that, I'll be making one bold prediction for each division. Once you roll through the divisional portion of these predictions, you'll see my playoff picks and eventually the team I'm picking to win the Super Bowl. In two of the past 10 years, my preseason Super Bowl pick has ended up winning it all, so if you want to skip everything and scroll straight down to my Super Bowl pick to see if I'm taking your team, I won't be offended. Finally, if you're wondering how I did last season, I predicted the exact record for 13 different teams or came within one game of it. According to the guys at Stadium Rant, I had the second-most accurate preseason predictions among the media members they tracked. Does that mean I was good, or does it mean that I was just less worse than everyone else? I'm still trying to figure that out. Even though my predictions were pretty solid for most teams, there was one team that I absolutely whiffed on last year, and that was the Seahawks. I had them missing the playoffs, and if you watched any football in 2025, then you already know that the Seahawks did NOT miss the playoffs. That ring is worth more than my car, and the irony is that I could have bought a new car if I had picked the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl last year and made a big bet on it. I definitely will not be underestimating the Seahawks this year. Does that mean I'll be picking them to pull off a Super Bowl repeat? Let's get to the 2026 predictions and find out. AFC East 1. *Bills: 11-6 2. Patriots: 9-8 3. Jets: 6-11 4. Dolphins: 2-15AFC East bold prediction: Patriots miss the playoffs Before I explain myself here, I would like to start by saying that my AFC East bold prediction for 2025 was that the Patriots would win double-digit games and that Mike Vrabel would win Coach of the Year. Well, check and check. I also predicted that the Patriots would win the AFC title game by exactly three points over Denver and that they'd lose by two touchdowns to the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. OK, now that we've established that I'm never wrong about the Patriots, we can get to this year and why I think they'll miss the playoffs. On defense, I'm worried about New England's pass-rush. Their sack leader from last year, Harold Landry, is going to miss at least the first four games of the season, and they don't really have any proven stars behind him. On the other side of the ball, I'm concerned about the offensive line. On paper, it's certainly better than it was last year -- and Will Campbell will be fully healthy -- but I'll believe they're better when I actually see it. This group is going to get two stiff tests in the first two weeks (The Seahawks defense in Week 1 and T.J. Watt in Week 2), and if they pass those, I'll probably be regretting this bold prediction by Week 3. And let's not forget about the schedule. Last year, the Patriots took advantage of one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. This year, they have an absolute gauntlet coming out of the gate. Their first four opponents have a combined strength-of-schedule of .721, the highest SOS any team has faced in the first four weeks in 40 years. To make things worse, the Patriots will have to play three of their first four games on the road. They might start 1-3, and if that happens, I could see things getting ugly from there, but not too ugly, because I do have them finishing over .500. AFC North 1. *Ravens: 12-5 2. *Bengals: 11-6 3. *Steelers: 9-8 4. Browns: 5-12 AFC North bold prediction: Bengals second-round pick wins Defensive Rookie of the Year Two years ago, I correctly predicted that Jared Verse would win defensive rookie of the year, and this year, I'm jumping on the Cashius Howell bandwagon. A front-seven player has won this award in eight of the past 10 years, and Howell will keep that trend going. The easiest way for a defensive player to win this award is to rack up sacks, and Howell is in the perfect position to do it. With Dexter Lawrence now on the team, you can pretty much bet that every offense the Bengals play this year will be worried about slowing down Lawrence. That likely means Lawrence will regularly see double teams, which should open the door for someone on the defensive line to shine, and I think that someone will be Howell, who was taken with the 41st overall pick back in April. And let's not forget, Howell is in a very sack-friendly division. He gets to face Aaron Rodgers, who has been sacked more times than any other QB in NFL history. He also gets to face a Browns offense that surrendered 51 sacks last season, which was the seventh-most in the NFL. As a matter of fact, there were only eight teams last year that gave up 49 sacks or more, and the Bengals will get to play four games against those eight teams, so Howell will be in a position to put up some impressive numbers. AFC South 1. *Texans: 11-6 2. Jaguars: 8-9 3. Colts: 7-10 4. Titans: 3-14 AFC South bold prediction: Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL in interceptionsThe Jaguars won the AFC South last year, and they did that despite the fact that Lawrence threw 12 interceptions, which was tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. Lawrence's biggest struggles came early in the season with three interceptions in his first four games. The early season could be another struggle for Lawrence this year, and that's because the Jags will be facing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the first two weeks: The Browns (Week 1) and Broncos (Week 2). There were only three teams in the NFL that recorded more than 50 sacks last season, and those were two of them. Basically, Lawrence is likely going to be under a lot of pressure, which could lead to three or four interceptions in the first two weeks. And things won't be getting any easier after that. Here's what the Jags schedule looks like from Week 2 through their Week 7 bye: Week 2: at BroncosWeek 3: PatriotsWeek 4: at BengalsWeek 5: vs. Eagles (in London)Week 6: vs. Texans (in London)That's brutal. Lawrence threw at least one interception in nine of Jacksonville's 17 games last season, and he did that even though he had Travis Etienne in his backfield, a player who was so good that he took a lot of pressure off the passing game. The Jags won't have Etienne this year, and although they do have two solid running backs in Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez, I don't think they'll be quite as good as Etienne. With the running game taking a step back, I think Lawrence will be asked to do more, which will lead to more interceptions. AFC West 1. *Broncos: 12-5 2. *Chiefs: 10-7 3. Chargers: 9-8 4. Raiders: 5-12AFC West bold prediction: Broncos repeat as AFC West champs and win the division by multiple gamesThe Broncos won the AFC West last year, but somehow, they still can't get any respect. Going into the 2026 season, the Broncos have the third-best odds to win the division. They are somehow behind both the Chiefs and the Chargers. Let's take a look at the odds (via DraftKings):Chiefs: +170Chargers: +190Broncos: +210Raiders: +2000Yes, the Chiefs are getting Patrick Mahomes back, but they had him for 14 games last year, and they went 6-8. Also, the Chiefs have a huge question mark on defense in the form of a secondary that lost both starting corners (Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie) and a starting safety (Bryan Cook) during the offseason. As for the Chargers, they have one of the most difficult eight-week stretches that any team has ever faced in NFL history. I'm not sure they're going to make it out of that alive. And then you have the Broncos. From top to bottom, I think you could argue that Denver has the best roster in the AFC. If they had one weakness on offense, it was the lack of a home run threat, but they now have one with Jaylen Waddle. This team is being slept on, but I don't sleep because I live with a 2-year-old, so it's impossible for me to sleep on anyone. The prediction here is that the Broncos will repeat as division champs for the first time since 2011-15, when they won five in a row. NFC East 1. *Cowboys: 10-7 2. Eagles: 9-8 3. Giants: 8-9 4. Commanders: 7-10NFC East bold prediction: Eagles miss the playoffsNick Sirianni has been the Eagles' head coach for five seasons, and he's led Philadelphia to the playoffs in every single one of those seasons, but I think the run finally ends this year. The Eagles just hired their fifth offensive coordinator in Sirianni's five seasons, and if you combine that with A.J. Brown no longer being in town, I think we could see the offense struggle some this year. The Eagles still have Devonta Smith, but behind him, their receiving room essentially consists of a rookie (Makai Lemon) and a bunch of guys they added this offseason, like Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore. I don't think we're going to see a huge collapse in Philadelphia -- I still have them finishing above .500 -- but I do think this will be the year where their run atop the division comes to an end. NFC North 1. *Lions: 12-5 2. *Packers: 11-6 3. *Bears: 10-7 4. Vikings: 10-7NFC North bold prediction: Jared Goff wins MVPAt first, I wasn't sure if this prediction qualified as bold, but it definitely does, because Goff isn't even among the top 10 favorites to win MVP this year. His odds of winning MVP are currently +2500, which is the 13th-best overall. So why do I like Goff? Glad you asked. The criteria for winning MVP has basically become two-fold: You have to be a quarterback and you have to play for one of the best teams in the NFL. Well, Goff is a quarterback, and I think the Lions are going to be one of the best teams in the NFL this year, which I think will put him in the MVP conversation. I actually picked Goff to win the MVP in 2024, and although the prediction didn't pan out, he led the Lions to an NFL-best 15-2 record and finished fifth in the MVP vote. I felt good about that prediction back then, and I feel even better about this one. One other thing I like about Goff is that the Lions have a friendly schedule this year. They get to play 12 of their 17 games in a dome and they'll likely only have to deal with two cold-weather games all season, and fittingly, those two games -- Week 17 at Green Bay and Week 18 at Chicago -- will likely go a long way in determining whether Goff wins the MVP. And if you're wondering why I like the Lions to win the division. A lot of it comes down to their three non-common games. Every team in the NFC North plays 14 similar games and three non-common ones: DET: at Cardinals, Giants, TitansCHI: at Seahawks, Eagles, JaguarsGB: at Rams, Cowboys, TexansMIN: at 49ers, Commanders, ColtsI feel like the Lions will go 3-0 with their slate, but I can't see any other NFC North team pulling that off with their trio of games. NFC South 1. *Saints: 8-9 2. Buccaneers: 7-10 3. Falcons: 6-11 4. Panthers: 6-11NFC South bold prediction: Kellen Moore wins Coach of the Year with a losing recordWinning the Coach of the Year award in a season where your team finishes with a losing record is almost impossible. Over the past 40 years, it's only happened once, in 1990, when Jimmy Johnson was voted Coach of the Year after leading the Cowboys to a 7-9 record (the Cowboys went 1-15 the year before, which is why everyone was so impressed with Johnson). The Saints haven't made the playoffs since 2020, so if Moore can get the ship turned around and lead them to the postseason, that will certainly put him in the conversation for Coach of the Year. The Saints have an emerging quarterback in Tyler Shough, and they put some serious talent around him this offseason by signing Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards. If Shough takes a big step forward, Moore will deservedly get a lot of the credit, and if the Saints win the division on top of that, that might be enough for Moore to win the award. NFC West 1. Rams: 14-3 2. *Seahawks: 12-5 3. 49ers: 10-7 4. Cardinals: 3-14NFC West bold prediction: 49ers second-round pick wins Offensive Rookie of the Year I was going to make Daejon Love my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but it turns out that he's not a real NFL player, so I'm going to go with the guy who recently made the switch to Love's number: De'Zhaun Stribling. Based on what I know, Stribling IS a real NFL player, and I fully expect the rookie receiver to put up some big numbers in San Francisco this year. The biggest advantage for Stribling is that not only does he play in a 49ers offense that produces a lot of yardage, but he actually might end up being the healthiest pass-catcher on the roster when the season starts.George Kittle is coming back from a torn Achilles, Mike Evans is banged up, Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, and Deebo Samuel is on the backend of his career, which leaves Stribling as an intriguing option in the 49ers' offense. The Offensive Rookie of the Year award has gone to either a receiver or a quarterback in each of the past FIVE straight years, and I don't think we're going to see a QB win the award this year, so I'm rolling with a receiver. NFC playoffs Teams: 1. Rams 2. Lions 3. Cowboys 4. Saints 5. Seahawks 6. Packers 7. BearsWild card (5) Seahawks 30-17 over (4) Saints(2) Lions 27-24 over (7) Bears(3) Cowboys 34-27 over (6) PackersDivisional (3) Cowboys 30-27 over (2) Lions(1) Rams 23-20 over (5) SeahawksNFC Championship (3) Cowboys 31-24 over (1) Rams AFC playoffs Teams: 1. Broncos 2. Ravens 3. Texans 4. Bills 5. Bengals 6. Chiefs 7. SteelersWild card (5) Bengals 34-31 over (4) Bills(6) Chiefs 23-20 over (3) Texans(2) Ravens 20-17 over (7) SteelersDivisional (5) Bengals 27-23 over (2) Ravens(1) Broncos 26-20 over (6) ChiefsAFC Championship (5) Bengals 22-19 over (1) Broncos Super Bowl LXI at SoFi StadiumPlayoffs bold prediction: Bengals finally get their first Super Bowl win in franchise historyThat's right, I'm picking a team that has never won the Super Bowl before (Bengals) to face a team that hasn't made it past the divisional round in 30 years (Cowboys). This is either going to go down as the greatest preseason Super Bowl prediction of all-time, or it's going to blow up in my face. There's no in-between. Pete Prisco also has the Cowboys going to the Super Bowl, and I have to say, that was almost enough to get me to change my pick, but I'm STICKING with it. When I started making these predictions more than a decade ago, I promised myself I would never pick the Cowboys to go to the Super Bowl because they're always overhyped and underdeliver, but here I am. I have the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. And then we have the Bengals, a team that hasn't even made the playoffs in three straight seasons. To me, these two teams are almost mirror images of each other: Both teams are returning essentially every starter on offense, and both hope they did enough on defense this offseason to improve on last year. If you don't remember what happened last year with these two teams, here's a quick refresher: The Bengals defense gave up the second-most yards in the NFL, and the Cowboys gave up the third-most. Both teams also have an aging hands-on owner who is desperate to win it all. At 83 years old, Jerry Jones wants to see one more Super Bowl win in his lifetime. At 91, Mike Brown would definitely like to see his franchise win a Super Bowl for the first time. Both owners apparently sent the same memo to their front office this year, and that memo was: Make the defense better. The Cowboys added some fresh faces on defense with guys like Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Caleb Downs and Cobie Durant. That group will be joining a defense that will get a full season with Quinnen Williams for the first time, and I think this unit could be really good. Not to be outdone, the Bengals made one of the biggest trades of the offseason when they sent the 10th overall pick to New York to acquire Dexter Lawrence from the Giants. They also signed Jonathan Allen and Boyd Mafe, along with two-time Super Bowl winner Bryan Cook. This might sound crazy, but I think the Bengals could have a top-10 defense this year, and that's notable, because 11 of the 13 Super Bowl winners since 2013 have had a top-10 defense. The other reason I like the Bengals is that I'm pretty sure Joe Burrow has brainwashed me into thinking they can win it all. Over the past few months, Burrow has been doing his best to manifest a Super Bowl win into existence by talking about it nonstop. I've never heard a QB sound so confident before the season, and Burrow doesn't usually talk like this. The QB has compared this year's Bengals to his 2019 LSU team, which won the national title. Some quarterbacks will say the team's "goal" is to win a Super Bowl, but Burrow is actually saying they're going to win it. As long as Burrow can stay healthy, the Bengals should be a serious threat to win the Super Bowl, and I think they pull it off by winning the NFL's first-ever Valentine's Day Super Bowl. Super Bowl LXI prediction: Bengals 27-23 over CowboysWhen it comes to this year's Super Bowl, a lot of people are picking the Rams to win it all, and I almost did the same thing, but I ended up going with Dallas. My only problem with the Rams is that if NFL history has shown us one thing, it's that the expectations can sometimes overwhelm you when you're a heavy favorite. The Rams are the 21st team over the past 30 years to have Super Bowl odds of +500 or shorter, which is notable because the previous 20 teams have gone 0-20 when it comes to winning the Super Bowl. The hype train always seems to go off the track. I like the Rams and think they could certainly win it all, but I won't be surprised if they get tripped up in the playoffs. Finally, if my season predictions all pan out -- and I'm sure they will -- here's what the top of the NFL Draft order will look like next April. 2027 NFL Draft order for the first five picks1. Dolphins (Hello, Arch Manning!?) 2. Titans 3. Cardinals 4. Jets 5. Panthers