Your Emmys 2026 Cheat Sheet (For the Categories Where It's Actually a Competition)

This story contains spoilers for some of the shows nominated at this year’s Emmys.If you’re starting to feel like we’ve been celebrating the 2026 Emmy Awards for approximately seven years, don’t worry—after the announcement of the Primetime Emmy nominees, the Roundtables, and last weekend's two-night Creative Arts Emmys event (to which several categories TV watchers might have wanted to see were controversially shunted), the marathon is nearly over*: the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards telecast airs Monday night.Several of Monday’s categories do feel like mortal locks. The Pitt has been just as buzzy in its second season as its first, and is probably unbeatable as Outstanding Drama Series. And given the shady circumstances surrounding its shock cancellation, The Late Show With Stephen Colbert—"#1 in late night for nine straight seasons," by CBS's own admission, when the axe came down—seems unlikely to lose Outstanding Variety Series.But there are a few categories that are harder to call. Informed by absolutely zero insider knowledge—just gut instinct and vibes—here are some picks to help guide your home ballot picks. (No refunds if they're wrong.)*Okay, yes, the 2026 Daytime Emmys are still coming. They don’t give those out until October 30, so you and your fellow Kelly Clarkson Show die-hards still have lots of time to organize a watch party.Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama SeriesCourtesy of AppleTVThis category has a Carrie (Coon, of The Gilded Age) and a Keri (Russell, of The Diplomat). How many elderly voters know neither of them is Carey (Mulligan, nominated for Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie)? Hard to say. What's important is that none of them is probably going to win.Zendaya has already won this award for both previous seasons of Euphoria, but the show seems to have finally exhausted everyone's patience in its third and final year; it's likely the nomination is her award for surviving creator Sam Levinson's bullshit. Chase Infiniti is nominated for the premiere season of Handmaid's Tale sequel The Testaments: anyone who feels she was snubbed of a nomination for her feature film début, the multiple-Oscar-winning One Battle After Another, might want to make up for it here. But Seehorn has received 14 nominations for playing Carol Sturka in Pluribus and, to date, won more than half. Having been shut out for her performance as Kim Wexler in Better Call Saul could, on its own, push her ahead for some voters; the fact that Pluribus also requires her to be MOST Actress In A Drama Series should clinch her win.Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or MovieCourtesy of AppleTVWhat makes this category a toss-up is that the five nominees are representing shows that are utterly buzzless. Four of them are for Netflix shows (The Beast In Me, Beef S02, Black Rabbit, and Monster: The Ed Gein Story) that seemed to fall off the radar within hours of their full-season drops. Two are stars of other multiply-nominated shows: Jason Bateman (Rabbit) headlined DTF St. Louis, which already won acting prizes for his co-stars Linda Cardellini and David Harbour; Matthew Rhys (Beast) anchored Widow's Bay, one of the year's most-nominated shows. Riz Ahmed (Bait) is nominated for a show that's probably too small; Charlie Hunnam (Monster) is nominated for a show that's too unpleasant.So, again, we must look to history: Rhys's Widow's Bay performance earned him a nomination for Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series…but there he's opposite Steve Carell. Sure, Carell is officially nominated for HBO's Rooster (speaking of small and buzzless), but did you know that he was Emmy-nominated 10 times for The Office and NEVER won? Assuming Carell is going to win for Rooster, Rhys might squeak out a Limited Series win as a consolation prize.Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy SeriesRobert Clark/Courtesy of AppleTVThere is a stunning amount of talent in this category, from past winner Hannah Einbinder (Hacks); to Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) and Jessica Williams (Shrinking), past nominees many times over; to repeat Oscar nominee Michelle Pfeiffer (Margo's Got Money Troubles).But I only have (heart) eyes for Dale Dickey and Kate O'Flynn, two of the many character-actor weirdos who fill out Widow's Bay. O'Flynn, a British actor with multiple past collaborations with feature director Mike Leigh—including his highly anticipated Tender Loving Care this year—plays Patricia, a high-strung City Hall employee who unwittingly practices witchcraft in one episode and spends another being slowly chased around town by its reanimated serial killer. Patricia is alternately abetted and disdained in her investigation of the island's curse by her colleague, Dickey's Rosemary, a gruff, laconic Widow's Bay lifer who's seen it all but only cares to discuss it when someone specifically asks. In light of Amy Madigan's Oscar win for Weapons earlier this year, I'll give a slight edge to Dickey, who should have had her own Oscar nomination for A Love Song a few years back.If O'Flynn and Dickey split the Widow's Bay vote and somehow create a path for a Megan Stalter (Hacks) victory, I will never forgive the Television Academy…but at least we know there will be a second season of Widow's Bay, so that O'Flynn and Dickey will get more chances at victory here.Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama SeriesErin SimkinThree actors from The Pitt in this category—Patrick Ball, Shawn Hatosy, and Gerran Howell—seems like a lot, until you clap an eye on Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series and see four actresses from The Pitt outnumbering non-Pitt nominees. Anyway: all three of the Supporting guys have claims on the big prize. Hatosy already won for playing Dr. Jack Abbot last year, back when he was still officially a guest star. Patrick Ball (Dr. Frank Langdon) made headlines this spring for sharing that he feared he would die with student loan debt before his job on The Pitt let him dig himself out; it's a personal story lots of voters in the actors' branch can probably relate to. And as for Gerran Howell: do people know that the guy who brings to life Nebraskan farm boy-turned-doctor Dennis Whitaker is, in fact, Welsh?However, the winningest nominee is Billy Crudup of The Morning Show. He's been nominated for each season he's played Cory Ellison, initially a TV executive who's sunk down to beleaguered movie producer by the show's fourth season; in his previous three nominations, he's won twice. Meanwhile, The Morning Show itself has seen its fortunes fluctuate wildly: after a third season that was showered with 16 nominations, including Outstanding Drama Series, the one and only nomination the fourth season earned was for Crudup. Giving him the award would really underline that he's the only good thing about an increasingly bad show.Outstanding Writing For A Comedy SeriesHBO Max/Everett CollectionHacks, which aired its fifth and final season this spring, is nominated in seven categories and likely to steamroll the competition in many of them, including Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series: Jean Smart, who leads the show as standup comic Deborah Vance, has been nominated for each of the show's seasons and has, to date, never lost. If The Comeback could have waited a year to return for its third season, Lisa Kudrow might have a shot in this category, but probably not as long as Smart is in the mix.Outstanding Comedy Series is one of the categories for which Hacks has been nominated throughout its existence; it's only won that one once, but with nothing else in the category taking its final bow this year, this seems like the time for it to repeat. (Yes, The Bear is nominated, and yes, it did end this summer, but this nomination is for season four; its farewell tour will take place at next year's Emmys.)Widow's Bay did receive an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination for its début season—it's one of its 19, putting it just ahead of the 18 Hacks racked up. But since it will have at least one and probably many more chances to take it, my prediction is that this will be where the Television Academy awards Widow's Bay creator Katie Dippold, for writing the series premiere teleplay. Sure, both the Widow's Bay series premiere and the Hacks series finale (for which creators Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky are nominated) revolve around fragile humans facing their mortality, but only one of them even gestures toward cannibalism: that's the one that deserves the win.