Yemen, Bab al-Mandab and Saudi Arabia: Tehran’s strategic calculus in the balance

Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and the Yemeni group’s growing leverage over Red Sea shipping have played to Iran's strategic advantage, increasing pressure on Riyadh and strengthening Tehran’s position in the regional conflict. The Houthis’ capture in September of the strategic Yemeni port city of Mokha from Saudi-backed government forces has placed a vital alternative route for Saudi oil exports through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at risk. For Tehran, this presents an opportunity to drive up oil prices and pressure US President Donald Trump to end the war, while linking threats to shipping through Bab al-Mandab to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. But as Saudi Arabia sought Tehran’s help in containing the Houthis, Iran must also contend with the limits of its influence over the Houthis, who have their own domestic objectives. The escalation has also left Iran facing a delicate balancing act of supporting a key regional ally without allowing the conflict to spiral beyond its control. Read more: Yemen, Bab al-Mandab and Saudi Arabia: Tehran’s strategic calculus in the balance