Yankees vs. Rays preview, prediction: Everything to know about four-game series with AL East title on the line

The Rays enter the three-day, four-game set with a six-game lead over the Yankees Sep 22, 2026 at 8:50 am ET • 6 min read The final week of the regular season has arrived and every team has six games remaining except two, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees and Rays each have seven games remaining because they have a doubleheader Tuesday at Yankee Stadium, and will play four times in the next three days. This series is New York's last gasp in the AL East. The Yankees and Rays are the only two teams in the AL East race. The other three clubs have been mathematically eliminated. Here is the top of the division standings, which also doubles as the top of the American League standings: Rays: 95-60Yankees: 89-66 (6 GB)Whichever team wins the AL East will also get the AL's No. 1 seed and a Wild Card Series bye. That has already been determined. It's not possible for the AL Central or AL West winner to be the No. 1 seed. Obviously, that six-game lead puts Tampa in the driver's seat. It is the favorite to win the AL East, even if it has not yet been clinched. "We're going to show up Tuesday and try to kick their butt," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said over the weekend (via the New York Post). "Simple as that, and we'll keep it simple." Here are the details for this week's four-game series in New York. Select games can be streamed on fubo (Try for free). DateStart timeStarting pitchersTVTues., Sept. 22 1:05 p.m. ET LHP Carlos Rodón (6-3, 2.95) vs. RHP Nick Martinez (15-4, 2.94) YES, Rays TV Tues., Sept. 22 7:05 p.m. ET LHP Max Fried (5-4, 2.63) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (15-5, 2.72) YES, Rays TV, TBS Weds., Sept. 23 7:05 p.m. ET RHP Gerrit Cole (9-9, 3.63) vs. TBA Amazon Prime, Rays TV Thurs., Sept. 24 7:05 p.m. ET RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.94) vs. TBA YES, Rays TV Lefty Ian Seymour and righty Freddy Peralta line up to start Wednesday and Thursday for the Rays, respectively. Tampa is listing TBAs because, if it takes care of business Tuesday and clinches the AL East title, it can take its foot off the gas, push Seymour and Peralta back, and give them extra rest. Tuesday's doubleheader will make up a May 23 rainout, by the way. Here's what you need to know about this week's four-games-in-three-days series at Yankee Stadium, with a prediction thrown in, because why not? What's at stake? The AL East title and, again, this is the last gasp for the Yankees. The Rays will clinch the division with one win in these four games. The Yankees must sweep these four games to have a chance at the division title, and even then, they would need help this coming weekend. Here are each team's remaining schedules: RaysYankeesSept. 22-24 4 games at Yankees 4 games vs. Rays Sept. 25-27 3 games at Phillies 3 games vs. Orioles New York's only path to the AL East title is sweeping these four games and then a) sweeping the Orioles while the Rays lose at least two games to the Phillies, or b) beating the Orioles twice while the Rays get swept by the Phillies. Again, one win during this four-game series clinches the AL East and the AL's No. 1 seed for Tampa. Beyond their long-shot chance at the AL East title, the Yankees are also playing for the top AL wild-card spot. They're six games up on the Red Sox in the loss column and they won the season series, so they have the tiebreaker. The Yankees will clinch the top wild-card spot -- and thus home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series -- with their next win or Boston's next loss. The most likely outcome (overwhelmingly so) has the Yankees hosting the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series next week, and the winner playing the Rays in the ALDS. Those three teams will likely have the AL's three best records, and they'll have to go through each other in the postseason's first two rounds. So it goes with the current postseason format. The Yankees have help coming No, not Aaron Judge. The Yankees will be without their captain until at least Sunday, the final day of the regular season. That is the day he is eligible to come off the injured list after suffering a calf strain last week. The Yankees have declined to give a timetable for Judge's return, opting only to say they hope to have him in the lineup for the postseason. Judge will not return this series but Jazz Chisholm Jr. is expected back, possibly as soon as Tuesday. Chisholm has been sidelined with a thumb injury since jamming it on a slide into second base on Sept. 8. He was in the middle of a hot streak at the time of the injury, going 18 for 46 (.391) with two home runs and seven stolen bases in his previous 15 games. Erstwhile shortstop of the future Anthony Volpe has manned second base during Chisholm's absence and played well. One of them could wind up at third base, where Ryan McMahon has been unproductive. Chisholm played some third base for the Yankees in 2024 and 2025. Volpe played a handful of games at third in Triple-A this summer. Who's hot, who's not? Baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks. Consistency is a myth. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every 10 at-bats, or even hit .300 every single month. He hits .300 one month, .250 the next, .350 the month after that, etc. Naturally, some Rays and Yankees hitters come into this week's series swinging the bat better than others. Here are three Rays players who have mashed over the past two weeks: PAAVG/OBP/SLGHRRBIJunior Caminero 52 .244/.346/.511 3 5 Liam Hicks 30 .280/.400/.440 1 5 Victor Mesa Jr. 40 .353/.450/.824 4 7 Hicks has been the most productive hitter traded at the deadline and looks like the solution to the catcher problem the Rays have been trying to solve for basically their entire existence. Mesa came over in a minor trade with the Marlins in February and has carved out a role as a platoon masher. Caminero bolstered his MVP case with two walk-off homers during the just-completed homestand. On the other end of the spectrum, stalwart Yandy Díaz has really gone through it the past two weeks, hitting only .133/.184/.222. He was out of Saturday's lineup, though it was a scheduled rest day, not injury-related.Here now are three Yankees who have swung the bat well over the past two weeks: PAAVG/OBP/SLGHRRBICody Bellinger 52 .347/.365/.653 4 9 Heliot Ramos 28 .250/.357/.667 3 6 Ben Rice 50 .289/.440/.579 3 7 With Judge injured most of the season, Bellinger and Rice have been New York's two best hitters, and Bellinger has rediscovered his power stroke since returning from a hamstring injury late last month. Ramos was brought in at the deadline to be a right-handed platoon bat, but he'll play every day with Judge hurt, and he hit two homers against righties over the weekend. McMahon seems likely to have his playing time reduced when Chisholm returns and it would not be unwarranted. He has authored a .138/.194/.172 batting line the past two weeks while also making several off-line throws at third base. Prediction For maximum drama/agony, let's say the Yankees will win three of four, but they'll win the first three games before dropping the fourth. That would cut the AL East deficit to three games and give them some hope, then the loss in the last game would clinch the division title for Tampa. Baseball can be cruel like that.