Writing on Wall for Putin in D.C.

Lots of optimism around Ukraine at the moment, particularly this week, around President Volodymyr’s visit to D.C. to attend the funeral of Lyndsay Graham. On the back of that, Zelensky secured an Oval Office meeting which reportedly went very well – guess the bar there is extremely low after the ambush in the February 2025 encounter.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. But there was also, finally, the passage of the now-renamed Graham-Russian sanctions bill, by a wide margin in the US Senate, 86-12. In theory, the latter bill could have a devastating impact on the Russian economy and war effort. It implies the potential for POTUS to levy 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian energy, including China and India. It also allows POTUS to levy 500% tariffs on a wide array of Russian exports to the U.S., as well as sanction Russian individuals, corporations, and banks. If all that happened, Russian energy exports would be zeroed, the balance of payments, the ruble, banks, and the economy would collapse. And then Putin would not just be fighting to hold the line in Ukraine but for the very survival of the Russian Federation – think 1991, collapse of the USSR. The operative word there is “potential,” and given that the main decision-maker is Trump, who has shown an aversion to doing much to actually hurt Putin and Russia, one has to question whether much will actually change. Other Topics of Interest ‘More Air Strikes on Russian Forces for Victory’ Drapaty Tells NATO Chief in 1st Call Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapaty held his first phone call with NATO's top military commander in Europe, discussing battlefield priorities and additional air defense support. The bill itself will go to the House and likely secure approval by September. The White House had been pushing back on the bill for a year or more because it disliked earlier drafts that gave Congress much of the authority to impose Russia–related sanctions, a bit like CAATSA. But subsequent versions of the bill have been watered down to shift decision-making authority from Congress to POTUS, and thus Trump is now expected to sign it into law. The big win for Ukraine may not be the bill itself, but the strong bipartisan support rallied behind the bill’s passage, which I think shows the changing mood in D.C. and the White House around Ukraine. And an 86-12 vote in favor of this bill will send a strong message to Putin that the US is significantly backing Ukraine. That mood swing in D.C. reflects Ukraine’s changing fortunes on the battlefield, and its new drone warfare prowess, which is now in high demand given ongoing developments in the Middle East. Ukraine now brings fewer problems to D.C., but solutions, and Trump likes winners- he loves taking over a winning hand, and Zelensky has all the drone aces now against Putin. All the above look set to put new pressure on Putin to return to the negotiating table. This week already saw Putin, quite remarkably, being dressed down by his Kazakh counterpart, who questioned the whole logic of Putin’s war, or special military operation, in Ukraine. There is no way that President Tokayev would have dared broach such an issue in public with Putin unless his back, or derrière, was covered by higher powers that be – likely Trump and Xi. Meanwhile, fresh from Graham’s funeral, Trump’s peace posse pals, Kushner and Witkoff, have been sent East again, but this time first to Kyiv, seemingly to initiate a new peace process. Notably, this is the two’s first joint trip to Kyiv after already securing plenty of air miles on numerous trips to Mos “Cow.” I think there is messaging there to Putin that he is now on the back foot and momentum is against him. Settle now, or else! The war is now going terribly for Putin. The frontlines have stalled, but the meat grinder is still gobbling up tens of thousands of Russian troops monthly. Drones have sapped Russia’s manpower advantage, and even mass mobilization would be unlikely to make much near-term impact but would be politically unpopular (perhaps terminally for Putin) at home. The war is, meanwhile, being brought home: “Wild-berries” direct delivery to Russians via the relentless attacks now by Ukrainian drones on Russian infrastructure - energy and logistics. Soviet-style queues are returning – well, Putin always lamented the end of the USSR, so I guess true to his word he is bringing it back for his obedient servants. I just wonder when, or if, Russians will crack and someone, or a group, will finally put the country out of its misery and move against Putin. With Europe and the US now backing Ukraine, it’s only going to get worse, much worse for Russia and Russians in this war. Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog. See the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.