With under 60 days until the midterms, there is still plenty of time to change the entire political map

On Thursday, the House of Representatives decided to cancel votes for the last two weeks of September, meaning that after next week’s break for Labor Day and Rosh Hashanah, the House will only be in business for four days until the midterm elections. Right now, Republicans are going to need all the help they can get ahead of November. Midterms have a certain rhythm: two years after electing a president, voters either feel the administration has not lived up to its promises or seen them implemented and they now have buyer’s remorse. All signs seem to show that for President Donald Trump and Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives. Trump now boasts a 33 percent approval rating. He’s bleeding with Hispanic voters who had broken for him in 2024 and even more telling, he is starting to fall with white voters without college degrees and rural voters. But every once in a while, a curveball can come along. In 1998, after Republicans impeached Bill Clinton but failed to convict him, Republicans actually lost House seats. In 2002, in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans earned a solid majority in the House and Senate. And most recently, in 2022, when the Supreme Court killed the right to an abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, Republicans only barely won the House while Democrats held numerous governorships and netted a Senate seat.And then, sometimes, a wave is so big that the minority party can win in an unexpected place. Here are some twists that could help shape what the political future of the nation will look like after November:An end to the Iran WarThere really is only one thing that could move the voting public to be more favorable to Trump and the GOP: ending the war in Iran. Despite what the administration says, the U.S. adventure in Iran is a war and it has caused the price of gas to rise exponentially. The resulting inflation has outpaced wage growth. At this point, the only thing that would matter to voters is an end to the war that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and therefore increases the global supply of oil. This seems unlikely. On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance told reporters that “I wouldn’t call it a war” when asked if it would be over before the midterms. But every day that drags on reminds voters that Trump caused their gas prices to rise. The 2026 midterm is a referendum on President Donald Trump. While pollsters are predicting what the election map will look like, there is still plenty of time for big changes (AFP/Getty)Trump or John Thune blinks in Texas Perhaps the ugliest Senate primary this year came in Texas when Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, leading to Cornyn’s humiliating defeat. Paxton’s numerous scandals–which led to him being impeached but acquitted in the Texas legislature–and allegations of infidelity have made Democrat James Talarico competitive. Polling shows Talarico either in the lead or in a statistical tie in a state that has been a Republican lock for years. But so far, neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Majority Leader John Thune, have ponied up. Trump has praised Paxton and raised money for him, but he has yet to deploy resources from MAGA Inc., his super PAC that has a more than $400 million cash pile. Contrast that with Talarico’s $30 million fundraising haul in the most recent quarter.If any of them decide to deploy resources, this could be the thing that saves Paxton. Otherwise, he might be toast as a candidate.Elon Musk has continued to drop massive dollars to elect Republicans ahead of the midterm election. (AFP/Getty)Will Elon Musk’s moneybomb backfire?After Elon Musk’s public falling out with President Donald Trump and leadership of the government cost costing, Musk has mostly returned to the Republican fold. This week, his America PAC dropped $800,000 to support Republican candidates running for both House and Senate. In particular, he spent a little less than $250,000 for Paxton and against Talarico.He also dropped the $170,000 for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and against her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson. Collins is in the toughest race of her career, though she has a history of outperforming polls. But perhaps recognizing how unpopular Musk is in a blue state like Maine, she immediately distanced herself from Musk. “I wasn't aware of that donation, I knew he was going to get involved in political campaigns but I had not heard that there was a specific donation,” she told reporters in Maine. Musk’s campaign cash has a history of backfiring. Last year in Wisconsin, he dropped millions during the state’s supreme court race just for the liberal candidate to win in a rout. If Republicans in purple or even light red districts are tied to Musk, they could wind up with a target on their back given how unpopular he is with many voters. Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate Josh Turek speaks to fairgoers at the Iowa State Fair - a blue win in a red state would be a big statement for the Demcorats (Getty)Which race will shock everyone?Every election has a sleeper result nobody expects. In 2018, Democrat Kendra Horn shocked nearly everyone when she flipped Oklahoma’s 5th district and in 2024, the unthinkable happened when Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, whose father was one of the most beloved governors in the state, lost his seat.Other times, that race signals a larger shift: Ron DeSantis’s squeaker for governor in 2018 opened the door to Florida going from the perpetual swing state to a solid red state. In that same year, Kyrsten Sinema’s race began a streak of Democrats winning Senate seats in Arizona.Some potential shockers include Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor, beating Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas based on the toll Trump’s tariffs placed on farmers - and the disappointment some have voiced over that decision. Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida has proven to be uniquely vulnerable as she underperformed Trump in 2024 in the district and could lose her seat. In Iowa, Democratic state legislator and former paraolympian Josh Turek trails behind Rep. Ashley Hinson’s for the state’s Senate seat. But under the right circumstances, it could flip. And in Colorado, Rep. Lauren Boebert has raised a pittance of money despite being a nationally recognized figure. There are plenty of possibilities - and plenty of time - for curveballs that can cause massive swings in the midterm races. Now, we will start seeing them as campaigns begin their home stretches.