Will ‘Dune’ and ‘Avengers’ Drown Out Everything Else at the Box Office This Christmas?

Look, it’s only November, but we know we’re not the only people getting excited about Christmas already. In fact, we know that some studio executives have been thinking about the holiday season a lot for a while now. That’s because they know as well as anyone that they have two juggernauts to contend with: “Dune: Part Three” and “Avengers: Doomsday,” which open on Dec. 18 in true clash of the titans fashion. There’s a question that if those movies take up so much oxygen, will there be room for anything else? The last “Dune” movie surpassed $700 million globally at the box office, and “Avengers: Doomsday” has already sold over $60 million in pre-sales. Those top two titles create enormous competition for everything opening on Christmas weekend itself. Those include the Dwayne Johnson threequel “Jumanji: Open World” from Sony, the football biopic “Mr. Irrelevant” from Paramount, Robert Eggers’ horror film “Werwulf” from Focus, and Luca Guadagnino’s “Artificial” from Neon. Paramount’s “The Angry Birds Movie 3” is also opening on December 23 just ahead of the rest. Anyone will tell you the Christmas holiday is always crowded at the movies. And there’s usually room for multiple blockbusters to draw crowds. Despite the onslaught of new titles, U.S, distributors are confident they’ll be able to secure the screens they need to be successful. For instance, “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” this year opened at the end of July to $360 million domestic, and “The Odyssey” in its third week in theaters still made $50 million. Even during the “Barbenheimer” weekend, “Sound of Freedom” in its third week managed to bring in another $19.8 million. There’s always opportunity if the demand is there. Recent Christmases have been similarly crowded. Last year had “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “The Housemaid,” a new “Spongebob,” and “Marty Supreme” open the weekend before Christmas, then “Anaconda” and “Song Sung Blue” over the holiday itself. 2024 had “Mufasa: The Lion King,” “Nosferatu,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Babygirl,” and “The Fire Inside” all in a short span just before Xmas. But this Christmas does bring some unique challenges that studios are preemptively working around for their titles that are not “Dune” or “Avengers.” Both of those films have had tickets on sale for months, and both are locked in a fight for premium large format screens that distributors would be lying to say they didn’t want, even if it’s for a family film that doesn’t need it. Warner Bros. and Legendary’s “Dune: Part Three” specifically will exclusively be on IMAX screens, which has famously left “Doomsday” without them, leaving Disney to create its Infinity Vision certification to drum up excitement. To compete, “Angry Birds 3” is still opening in 3D if on otherwise standard format screens. “Werwulf” won’t have IMAX as Focus did for “Nosferatu,” but it has pre-sold select 35mm screenings of the film that have already done quite well (they went on sale on the full moon last month). The hope, too, is that titles like “Jumanji” and “Mr. Irrelevant” appeal to crowds that are distinctive from the male, fanboy-heavy audiences for “Dunesday.” One source IndieWire spoke with argued that even though this Christmas is top heavy, it’s arguably lighter in sheer quantity than we’ve seen in recent years. What we’re not seeing is a movie like “Marty Supreme” or “Uncut Gems” getting a run in a more mid-size or limited number of screens. Universal doesn’t have a movie opening in that window, nor does Amazon MGM. Other awards titles like “The Debut” from A24 are going earlier in the month and aren’t doing the limited, Christmas day, qualifying run before going wide in January (GKIDS’ “Look Back” may be an exception, opening December 30). There are some potential holdovers that could generate money well into Christmas. Rival studio execs are keeping an eye on movies like Disney’s animated “Hexed” or Universal’s “Focker-in-Law,” and Focus’ “Elsinore” will also be going wider shortly before the holidays. The hope now is that all of these films get their flowers and collectively put an exclamation point on a stellar 2026, with the box office now projected to finish far above $10 billion domestic, a number that might’ve been a pipe dream this time in 2025. That’s reason for holiday cheer, indeed.