Why the best-laid plans to fix Joburg won’t work — and what will

Everyone is saying the same things when it comes to the plan for Joburg. Fix the water, fix the electricity, fix waste management, deal with crime and corruption… it’s like a stuck record, and it misses the point.These are problem identification statements, views from the past, not forward strategies. They’re pictures of the obvious, the things we all talk about, and certainly not solutions. Worse still, those who list them as priorities in their plans for Joburg (with, no doubt, some clear exceptions – which are not immediately apparent to me) haven’t a clue how to fix them – evidenced at least by the absence of proof in their track records, if indeed they have any track record at all.Fixing the obvious is a prerequisite. We’re about to vote to appoint racing drivers as mayors, not mechanics. Wait, I’ll explain. The best drivers in the world take for granted (as they are entitled to do) the roadworthiness, the trackworthiness of the car. They rely on the mechanics – which I’m using here as a collective noun for all of the support services that have to come together to get the car race-ready. If you’re tabling a flight plan to air traffic control, you don’t have as your first priority to fuel the plane – that’s obvious and assumed. In order for the new executive teams for any metro to execute a vision their plan will have to be anchored on normal conditions.Let’s start with finance. Over the past few months much has been made of Joburg having tabled an unfunded budget (in part, as I recall, because of the proposed salary increases). National Treasury jumped in, withheld the equitable share for a bit and a plan (it seems) was made to solve the issue, I think? At best this is crisis management, not a long-term structural solution. Same with outstanding R5.25-billion owed to Eskom – settled, it seems, but not solved. I’ve heard from mayoral candidates (and practically anybody else who cares to voice an opinion) such diverse estimates of the infrastructure backlog, the outstanding municipal debtors balance and other numbers so big individually (and borderline absurd in the aggregate) that, if they were true then Joburg is simply incapable of reaching financial sustainability on its current revenue projection. The numbers simply don’t add up.Even if we do one day find the best team and start the repair, we have no chance of getting there with GDP growth at 1.2 % and inflation over 4%. We’ve all started shrugging our shoulders, and who can blame us? We’ve all been reduced to beggars (who can’t be choosers). In the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement last week we spent more time celebrating the one month of limited fuel price relief than bemoaning the already dismal downgrading of our economic growth expectations. Whatever the truth is, and whatever the causes in a completely dysfunctional city today, we need to separate out the unserviceable, impossible-to-repay debt burden and set it to one side to be dealt with separately, if the new executive team appointed to run Joburg is to have even half a chance in getting it right. Absent a miracle (for which there is no generally acceptable accounting policy) Joburg cannot otherwise be fixed. Joburg will only be fixed (by a competent team) if it is not to be forever burdened by its past. Of course, the same applies to SA Inc.Ditto SA IncCut a deal with NT to ringfence the massive dysfunctional debt burden and then get busy with a feasible, profitable operational plan for its future – that’s where the positive cash flow and capital formation will come from to eventually sort out the weighty debt pile, over time. Amnesty may even have to be brought into the equation. There is no point living in hope for the repayment of debt and funding of backlogs that will never, ever happen. Now you have a starting balance sheet to work with. The same logic applies to the other failures which have to be fixed. Crime will have to be dealt with by the police and prosecuting authorities, not the metro executives. Joburg water will have to be fixed (with all of its multifaceted problems) by a water team, headed by an expert, simultaneously and alongside the moving-forward strategy that is heading (with all of its multifaceted problems) towards the sustainable Joburg that we (its residents) and the country at large so desperately need. Beyond just getting things doneYes, we’re going to have to fix our metros on the move. There simply isn’t time to fix everything before we start on the business of building a prosperous city. Who will do this? In the case of finance, its National Treasury – there just isn’t any other source until we can attract foreign direct investment. I believe that the solution for most of the other problems will also initially be found at national level. This isn’t a popular stance, but that’s because there’s little or no faith in the current national competence, not because it isn’t the right answer to the problem. We will simply not find sufficient skills at all of the local levels to do it. We have to go beyond just getting things done – we need deliverable contracts, at fair market value. That assurance and oversight remain the responsibility of the metro’s executive. We need to reward successful outcomes instead of perpetual failure – people are making money by ensuring failure persists!This logic, I’m afraid to say, applies equally to many of our challenges. Electricity supply will only be solved by Eskom, not by alternative energy, not by IPP’s. Those will help, but if Eskom fails, SA Inc fails.It’s not clear yet where the dividing line between local and national effort will settle. Certainly, some issues have to be dealt with locally. Waste management would be a classic example?We cannot have isolated islands of prosperity hoping to exist alongside widespread economic despair. That is inequality manifest.The results of the local government elections next week will be critical direction-deciders, and while you exercise your right to vote locally think also about the consequences of fragmented misfits trying to knit together a foundation for the 2029 national election. Be aware of the national imperatives.Giving local municipalities a new starting point under expert leadership from which to build by taking hold of some of the responsibilities at national level, may just be the turning point. The current flawed and weak foundations at local level simply will not support even the most ambitious, well-thought- out plans for most of our municipalities. DM