Why Sadiq Khan would win fourth term as London mayor - even if most of us want him to stand down

Even in the traditional Labour stronghold of Inner London, 52% of voters say Sir Sadiq Khan should not stand for a fourth term.The vast majority of Conservative and Reform UK voters would be expected to take the view that Sir Sadiq should stand down and let a different Labour candidate contest the mayoral election in 2028.They do, by 81% and 93% respectively.But so do four out of ten Labour supporters at the 2024 general election, according to the survey.Brent East MP Dawn Butler is expected to seek to become Labour’s London mayoral candidate if Sir Sadiq Khan does not stand for a fourth termPAMore men than women in the capital believe it is time for Sir Sadiq to move on, by 58% to 54%.Eight out of ten Londoners aged 65 and over think the Mayor should make do with three terms in office.Two-thirds of the 50 to 64 age group take this view, as do 48% of Londoners aged 25 to 49, and 41% of 18 to 24-year-olds.Overall, 56% of Londoners say Sir Sadiq should stand down and let a different Labour candidate contest the mayoral election in two years’ time.So the evidence is clear on Sir Sadiq’s likely fate if he seeks another term in City Hall.Shadow local government secretary Sir James Cleverly could be the Tory London mayoral contenderPA WireKey to poll results is the questions asked.The YouGov survey was a single question on this issue as part of a broader mayoral poll which had other findings which do not make good reading for Sir Sadiq.Read MoreBut Labour remains the most popular party in London despite the turmoils of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.And elections come down to who is a preferred candidate or party.When the London mayoralty race is framed in this context, Labour and Sir Sadiq are significantly ahead of rivals.Crucially, who the other parties select as their candidates could sway the mayoral race.Nigel Farage with Laila Cunningham as she was announced as Reform UK’s London mayoral candidateGetty ImagesBut Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch is searching far and wide for the person who would be her party’s strongest candidate.The longer a politician holds office the more vulnerable they become to being voted out or deposed by their own party.So, if Sir Sadiq did go for a fourth term a contest against former London Assembly member Sir James could be close, though, Labour would still be the frontrunner.Alternatively, Ms Cunningham might succeed in getting in a two-way run-off against Labour under the supplementary vote system used for the London mayoral election.But she may find it harder to win once second preference votes are counted.Whoever wins will find that to govern is to choose.As for voters, whatever their views on Sir Sadiq, they will also find that elections are to choose.