Why Republicans are facing pushback over Trump’s transactional Cuba policy

In Venezuela, President Donald Trump has demonstrated that his principal objective in deposing President Nicolás Maduro was taking control of the South American country’s vast oil reserves.In Cuba, Mr. Trump appears to have set his sights on mineral deposits – nickel and cobalt in particular – with a personal interest in the Caribbean island’s commercial real estate potential that predates his political career.The Trump administration’s spheres-of-influence foreign policy, rooted in its 2025 National Security Strategy, considers the Western Hemisphere the domain of the United States to the exclusion of other global powers. But absent from that is the traditional U.S. project of democratization and political reform. Norlys Perez/ReutersCuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez speaks during a press conference in Havana, Sept. 7, 2026. In a July press conference in Havana, Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez appeared to welcome this approach, saying: “Cuba remains open to dialogue [with the U.S.] and the peaceful resolution of differences, based on mutual respect and noninterference in Cuba’s internal affairs.”Unpopular in the Cuban American communityBut the de-emphasis on democracy and marginalizing of the long-held U.S. goal of a political transition from communism is not sitting well with some conservative foreign-policy voices – in particular Florida’s influential Cuban American community. Indeed several Cuban-American Republican members of Congress are facing heated public opposition in their districts to signs of an emerging Venezuela-style, business-first-politics-later deal with the Cuban government.Just this week U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar publicly broke with the president over his immigration policies, saying Hispanic voters “felt betrayed.” Normally a strong supporter of Mr. Trump’s tough rhetoric on Cuba, she was also critical of the oil deal with the Venezuelan government.Some analysts of U.S.-Cuba relations say these factors help explain why the talks between Washington and Havana, which appeared to be advancing, have gone cold. “With these very consequential midterms coming up, it seems we’re seeing a pause in the diplomatic activity that was bringing attention to the administration’s ‘business-not-politics’ approach to Cuba,” says Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University in Miami.Describing the U.S. approach, he adds: “The Trump administration is saying through their actions, ‘We’ve been successful in getting what we want from Venezuela by going in and co-governing with the regime instead of trying first to change it, so we’re going to try the same thing in Cuba.’”Dr. Gamarra notes, however, that polls carried out by Florida International University suggest this approach of “co-governing” and worrying about communism and political rights later is very unpopular in the Cuban American community. Also dampening support for Republican members of Congress is the inclusion of Cubans in President Trump’s deportation campaign. Samuel Corum/Sipa USA/APU.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during a hearing on the proposed 2027 fiscal year budget for the U.S. Department of State, June 2, 2026, in Washington. “Cuba poses no threat to the United States”The Cuban government continues to amplify its position that it remains open to dialogue with the Trump administration, that it welcomes U.S. private investment, and in fact has approved a raft of economic reforms this year to encourage foreign investment. But it also condemns as counterproductive the U.S. oil blockade implemented this year and the waves of U.S. sanctions it says stymie the economic reforms.“Cuba poses no threat to the United States, and it is illogical to believe that it could become one,” said Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, in a meeting in Washington with a group of journalists Sept. 16.“We are engaged in a profound process of changes in the country, while suffering an unrelenting economic aggression by the United States that equates to collective punishment on the whole of the Cuban people.” What is not negotiable, government officials say, is Cuba’s political and social organization.“We will continue to go down this [economic reform] path, but we will retain the role of the state to respond to basic needs of the population and the economic capacity to do that,” Mr. Fernández de Cossío said later in an interview with PBS News Hour. Felix Marquez/APA group of unauthorized migrants pick up their belongings before they are escorted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents across the McAllen-Hidalgo-Reynosa International Bridge in McAllen, Texas, March 13, 2026. Dozens of migrants from countries including Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, China, Guatemala, and El Salvador were handed over to Mexican authorities. Some longtime Cuba experts acknowledge the significant reform Cuba is undertaking – but underscore that it is not possible to disassociate this transformation from either the significant pressures the Trump administration is imposing on the country or the Trump strategy in the Western Hemisphere more broadly.“In the last nine months the Cuban government has approved more reforms and changes than at any time going back to the revolution of 1959,” says John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council in New York.“The Trump administration is feeling quite positive about the direction things are taking,” he adds. “They feel they are getting more out of the Cuban government with the transactional diplomacy they are pursuing than through the traditional diplomatic models.”Moreover, he says, “President Trump is saying, ‘Had I not taken Maduro out of Venezuela like I did, we wouldn’t even be having these conversations with the Cubans.’”“A policy that says no to regime change”Mr. Kavulich acknowledges that some Republican members of Congress have been critical of the sidelining of demands for Cuba’s political transition. But he says he strongly disagrees with any suggestion that the U.S.-Cuba dialogue has been suspended until after the midterms. “Maybe there isn’t a lot of traditional diplomacy right now, but there is still a form of dialogue going on every day,” he says. “It’s communicating some message when the Cuban government approves another economic reform. The Trump administration is communicating something when they announce some new sanctions or other actions involving Cuba.”Indeed the State Department announced new sanctions Thursday on Cuba’s mineral extraction enterprises and on state-run entities involved in weapons development.Noting that deals for U.S. private investment in Cuba are already in the works, Mr. Kavulich adds, “The governments through private companies are talking every single day.”Another facet of the Cuba diplomacy that experts say they are following closely is how Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, is navigating the situation.President Trump assigned the Cuba portfolio to Mr. Rubio, but that effectively put the chief diplomat in a hard place between his boss’s transactional diplomacy, and the regime-change hardliners of his Florida political base. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. “Trump wants a deal that focuses on the energy sector and minerals in particular, but how does Marco Rubio explain that to his community?” says Dr. Gamarra. “He’s implementing a policy that says no to regime change, we don’t have the resources for it – but that puts him in a tough spot with a sizable chunk of the Republican Party.”Mr. Kavulich adds, “What I hear Marco Rubio saying is, ‘There’s what we want in Cuba, and there’s what we can achieve, at least in the short term. And that,” he adds, “means we’re going to talk with who’s there.’” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.