Why older voters could decide Brazil’s presidential election

After spending most of her adult life exercising her civic duty to vote, Regina Viana is mulling staying home for Brazil’s next presidential election on Oct. 4.“Since I’m not required to vote, and I don’t really have any candidates I like, I’d rather not,” says the retiree, sitting on a park bench outside Rio de Janeiro’s neoclassical Museum of the Republic after her daily walk.Four years ago, get-out-the-vote campaigns focused on mobilizing Brazil’s youth, particularly among 16- and 17-year-olds for whom voting is not compulsory. Fast forward to 2026, and the focus has shifted to older voters like Ms. Viana, who are exempt from compulsory voting after turning 70 years old, but who represent a growing electoral force in fast-aging Brazil. “People aged 60 and over are already almost double the [number of] young people aged 16 to 24,” says José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a demographer who previously worked at the national statistics institute. “There are 16 million over-70s, around 10% of the electorate.”It’s a shift Dr. Alves has been writing about for two decades, but as the country prepares for a closely fought presidential election in which the older vote could be decisive, the topic is gaining broader attention. Constance MalleretRegina Viana is no longer required to vote after turning 70 years old. Disillusioned with politics, she is thinking of staying home on Election Day. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term at age 80. His main rival is Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula, as the president is known, narrowly beat in 2022. The senior Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest after being convicted last year for trying to cling to power following that defeat.Lula’s shrinking lead over Sen. Bolsonaro this fall is not expected to deliver him a first-round victory, and even in a potential late-October runoff, the race is projected to be too close to call. “The last presidential election was decided by 2 million votes, so in a very close race, this population of 70 and over could have the power to decide the election result,” says Dr. Alves. About 8 million over-70s abstained in 2022, he says.The “silver generation”Older populations are often associated with more conservative views and consistent voting behavior. In the United States, baby boomers have been a reliable voting cohort to the point of stoking generational resentment: Some politicians are perceived to favor senior citizens’ interests at the expense of younger generations.But in Brazil, older people vote less – and this year, skew left. In pollster Datafolha’s early September survey, 46% of over-70s said they would vote for Lula, a social democrat, versus 35% for Sen. Bolsonaro, who is expected to pursue his father’s hard-right agenda. Across the entire electorate, Lula’s lead falls to just 5 points.The same Datafolha results show over-70s reporting the strongest interest in politics of any age group, despite their traditionally high abstention rates. Abstention was 58.9% among Brazilians over 70 years old in the first round of the 2022 elections, compared with 20.9% in the population overall.Experts point to factors including mobility barriers and a sense of disengagement that is not unique to older voters, but can accentuate with age. People think, “I no longer have a reason to vote because I’m old now and nobody cares to hear my opinion,” says Cléa Klouri, founder of Data8, a Brazilian research firm focused on what is known as the “silver generation.” Constance Malleret"I always vote. I'm a citizen," says Paulo Herkenhoff, an art curator in his 70s who attended a rally in support of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Copacabana Beach, Rio de Janeiro, Sept. 13, 2026. That’s an attitude that Paulo Herkenhoff, a septuagenarian art curator, resists. “I always vote. I’m a citizen,” he says, decked out in pro-Lula garb while handing out campaign stickers at a recent rally on Rio’s Copacabana Beach. “We need to understand that if Brazil’s over-70s get out on the streets and vote, we can make a difference.”Movements like Voto70+, a nonpartisan campaign launched by Ms. Klouri’s company this year, are encouraging older citizens to do just that. “Brazil still sees itself as a country of young people,” says Ms. Klouri, noting that older age groups now make up an unusually large share of the population relative to younger ones. Support for democracyWhile the leading candidates’ programs include proposals on older people in the workforce and digital inclusion – topics that matter just as much as pensions and healthcare to ever-more-active pensioners – experts say in-depth discussions on an aging society have been lacking. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Dr. Alves speculates that the age gap between the two candidates – Senator Bolsonaro is in his 40s – could partly explain older voters’ preference for Lula. Another factor is support for democracy, which tends to be stronger among older citizens, given former President Bolsonaro’s role in an attempted coup just three years ago.That’s one of the reasons Ms. Viana – who is wavering on her decision to abstain from voting – says she wouldn’t cast her ballot for Sen. Bolsonaro. She’s disappointed with Lula’s performance, but she fears the risk of a repeated attack on democracy more. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.