Why Maharashtra legislative council poll results are a setback for Mayahuti

The Nagpur Graduates seat loss is particularly striking since CM Devendra Fadnavis and Union minister Nitin Gadkari hail from the regionThe ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra, in a major embarrassment, has lost elections from three of five seats in the state legislative council, including Nagpur Graduates. This comes in the backdrop of the Gen Z protests and youth angst in parts of India and restiveness within a section of the dominant Maratha community in Maharashtra.The Nagpur Graduates seat loss is particularly striking since chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari hail from Nagpur. The city is also the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Biennial elections for the Pune Graduates, Pune Teachers, Amravati Teachers, Nagpur Graduates and Aurangabad Graduates seats were held on October 23, followed by the counting of votes on October 27-28. The electoral college for these seats comprises graduates and teachers respectively, with electors registering themselves afresh for each election. This ensures an edge for the party or candidate who can register the most voters and ensure their presence at polling booths. Two of these seats (Pune Teachers and Nagpur Graduates) were held by the Congress, one each by the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the other NCP led by deputy chief minister Sunetra Pawar (Pune Graduates and Aurangabad Graduates, respectively). One seat (Amravati Teachers) was held by an Independent who shifted allegiance to the Shiv Sena led by deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde. In the past, rebels have shown their potential to upset the applecart of official candidates. Earlier this year, BJP rebel Gokul Gite inflicted a shock defeat on Shiv Sena MLC Kishore Darade from the Nashik local bodies constituency. Although it was claimed that Gite had the backing of elements from within the BJP, he later joined Shinde’s Sena as an associate member.The most significant shocker for the BJP came from its former bastion of Nagpur Graduates seat, where Sudhakar Kohale was trounced by Congress MLC Abhijit Wanjari in a battle that went down to the wire. The BJP’s move to nominate Kohale had led to a rebellion from former MLC Anil Sole, who had filed his nomination as an Independent. Former MLC Girish Vyas, son of Pandit Baccharaj Vyas, a former president of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, had quit his party positions to support Sole.The constituency has been a traditional BJP and Sangh Parivar bastion, and represented since 1958 by its stalwarts, including Bachharaj Vyas, Gangadharrao Fadnavis (father of Devendra Fadnavis) and later Gadkari. In 2020, then MLC Sole was dropped in favour of Nagpur mayor Sandeep Joshi, who has been Fadnavis’s campaign manager, but he lost to Abhijit Wanjari of the Congress. However, Fadnavis and revenue minister Chandrashekhar Bavankule worked overtime to placate Sole and Vyas.During the counting of votes, which continued for almost two days, Kohale was leading before the second-preference votes polled by NCP (SCP) rebel Nilesh Karale ‘Mastar’, a teacher and social media personality, largely went to Wanjari, leading to him gaining an edge. Karale surprisingly polled over 24,000 votes and emerged as a kingmaker of sorts. The victory comes as an embarrassment for Fadnavis, who had camped in Nagpur for two days to win the seat and micro-managed the campaign on the ground in the final days. The defeat is being attributed to unrest within a section of the BJP and RSS over Kohale’s candidature, Karale’s support for Gen Z protesters and Congress leaders in Vidarbha getting their act together. In the Pune Graduates seat, BJP nominee Smita Jadhav, the daughter-in-law of media magnate Pratapsinh Jadhav, was trounced by NCP (SCP) nominee Harshada Deshmukh Jadhav, daughter of former IAS officer Prabhakar Deshmukh. The loss is being attributed to the rift within the Mahayuti parties. Incumbent NCP (SCP) MLC Arun Lad had opted out of a contest, and it was believed his son Sharad would get a BJP nomination from the seat. However, the BJP chose Smita Jadhav. Pratap aka Bhaiyya Mane, a supporter of NCP leader and medical education minister Hasan Mushrif, had thrown his hat into the ring, but withdrew subsequently.Senior NCP leaders Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare have expressed their disgruntlement at the party giving up its claim on the Pune Graduates seat, which was won by the undivided NCP, to the BJP. An NCP leader said this angst within the ranks may have led to some of its voters supporting the NCP (SCP).Incidentally, the presence of Congress corporator from Kolhapur Sunil Modi as a Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) candidate failed to dent Deshmukh Jadhav’s chances. The Pune Graduates and Pune Teachers seats cover the five districts of Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur and Solapur. Rural development minister and Fadnavis loyalist Jaykumar Gore had led the charge in Solapur and Satara along with former MP Ranjitsinh Nimbalkar and former MLA Ram Satpute. But these attempts seem to have come a cropper. The NCP (SCP) also shocked the rival NCP in the Aurangabad Graduates seat, with its candidate Dr Pratapsinh Patil trouncing three-term NCP MLC Satish Chavan. Patil is the brother of Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Dr Rahul Patil. The outcome was influenced by the growing rift between the Mahayuti and Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who commands strong pockets of support in the Marathwada region, as well as rifts within the ruling alliance.Leaders of Shinde’s Shiv Sena, such as minister Sanjay Shirsat, former minister and MLA Abdul Sattar and MLA Sanjana Jadhav, were among those campaigning for the NCP (SCP). Incidentally, the Shiv Sena (UBT) had fielded nominee Dilip Ghuge from the seat, purportedly to dent Patil’s chances. This was allegedly at the behest of a senior Sena (UBT) leader from the region, but Rahul Patil continued to campaign for his brother. In the Pune Teachers seat, Congress MLC Jayant Asgaonkar lost to his principal challenger Kaustubh Gawade of the BJP in a four-cornered fight, which also had Sachin Sanap of the Shiv Sena and former MLC Dattatray Sawant in the ring. The defeat comes as a shocker for Asgaonkar’s backer Satej (Bunty) Patil, the son of education baron and former governor late D.Y. Patil. Just days ago, Patil had won the elections to the prestigious Gokul Cooperative Milk Federation in Kolhapur, which has a turnover of over Rs 4,000 crore. Apart from the BJP’s campaign, Gawade was aided by the network of the Shri Swami Vivekananda Shikshan Sanstha, Kolhapur, of which he is the CEO. The Shiv Sena had first sprung a surprise by deciding to field Mangesh Chiwate, a close confidant of Shinde, but Chiwate withdrew his candidature. However, Sanap, an aide of industries minister and Shiv Sena leader Uday Samant, remained in the fray. Reports from the ground suggest that there was massive deployment of resources by all principal candidates. After the results were announced, Gawade described the contest with Sanap as a “friendly fight”.There was some disappointment in store for the Congress as its nominee Aditi Pohare lost the Amravati Teachers seat to incumbent MLC and Shiv Sena nominee Kiran Sarnaik. Daughter of former minister Harshavardhan Deshmukh, Pohare is also the daughter-in-law of editor and media personality Prakash Pohare.Deshmukh is president of the Shri Shivaji Education Society, Amravati, which has a strong network of college and school teachers. Sarnaik was facing a massive turbulence in the ranks of the Mahayuti due to the presence of party rebel and former MLC Shrikant Deshpande in the fray along with Sangita Shinde, the sister of BJP Rajya Sabha MP Dr Anil Bonde, and Shekhar Bhoyar, brother-in-law of BJP MLA Rajesh Wankhade as Independents.The BJP and Shiv Sena have a bristling relationship in districts such as Buldhana and it was claimed that this would play a role in deciding the outcome of this poll. The constituency is spread over Amravati, Akola, Yavatmal, Washim and Buldhana districts in Vidarbha.A BJP functionary said the party and the Mahayuti had performed well in the council polls, with the BJP improving its tally to two from zero in the five seats. Another source close to Fadnavis claimed that the rebellions in the Mahayuti’s ranks could be attributed to its swashbuckling victory in the 2024 assembly elections as well as the presence of multiple parties in its ranks that led to jostling for more space. A Shiv Sena source said the BJP’s allies, such as the Sena and NCP, were forced to break ranks at times just to emphasise their separate existence, and to “underline that they do not want to be subsumed by it (BJP)”. “This alliance between three parties is unwieldy like a three-legged race Hence, we and the NCP are being forced into posturing as we would otherwise be seen as having surrendered to the BJP,” he explained.A senior NCP leader, who declined to be named, said the rebellions in the ruling alliance can be attributed to the meltdown of the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), with several leaders from Opposition parties choosing to jump ship for greener pastures. “The Opposition is shrinking while the ruling space is getting crowded,” he added. An NCP (SCP) leader pointed out that the rebellions in the MVA that had cost them the Nagpur Graduates seat indicated “poor coordination” among allies. The loss of the Congress in the two seats that it held also indicated the need for some serious stock-taking. Subscribe to India Today Magazine- Ends