Why James Carville said he'd rather GOP win close election than Democrats

During the conversation, the Democratic consultant said the 2026 midterms are an election "where margin matters a lot." Published Oct. 23, 2026 Claim: In October, Democratic consultant James Carville said: "I would rather the Republicans keep the House by five than the Democrats win by five, because if that happens, they’re hostage to the [Democratic Socialists of America]." In October, just weeks before Election Day, some people on social media claimed James Carville, a long-time political consultant and Democratic personality, said there's a scenario where he'd rather Republicans keep control of the House of Representatives than Democrats win it. "I would rather the Republicans keep the House by five than the Democrats win by five, because if that happens, they're hostage to the DSA. Like, Hakeem cannot move. There's no place for him to go," an X post (archived) claimed Carville said, referring to the Democratic Socialists of America and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Users also attributed the quote to Carville elsewhere on X (archived) and on Instagram (archived). Snopes readers searched the site for information and sent emails asking whether Carville really said that he'd prefer the Republicans to keep control of the House in such a scenario. Carville said the quote while talking to Bill Kristol on an Oct. 18 episode (archived) of The Bulwark's "Bulwark Takes" podcast. Therefore, we've rated this quote as correctly attributed. About three minutes into the YouTube version of the podcast, Carville talks about the scenario where the House ends up closely divided after the election. He says (emphasis ours): However, I would be disappointed if it comes in at 225 House seats. That would be — that would almost be — I would rather the Republicans keep the House by five than the Democrats win by five. Because if that happens, they're hostage to the DSA. Like, Hakeem [Jefferies] cannot move. There's no place for him to go. Even if you have a close Senate, [Sen. John] Fetterman would keep [Sen. Chuck] Schumer Pepto-Bismol all night. So I think this is one of these races where margin matters a lot. Winning big is almost as big as winning, which is weird, but it's a nightmare at 225. The "DSA" Carville referred to is the Democratic Socialists of America. Progressives scored a number of wins in the Democratic primaries, and some of these candidates refer to themselves as democratic socialists or are endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, which seeks to push the party further to the left. Some of these candidates have been associated with democratic socialists even when they haven't described themselves as such or been endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. The conversation between Carville and Kristol continued without lingering on Carville's comment to talk about potential Democratic pickups in the Senate. For further reading, we recently put together eight claims we've researched about polling stations and ballots ahead of the 2026 U.S. elections. Sources "Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) - Workings Towards a Better Future for All.." Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), www.dsausa.org/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026."James Carville – AAPC." Theaapc.Org, theaapc.org/recognition-awards/hall-of-fame/james-carville/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.Kamarck, Elaine. "Democratic Socialist Candidates Show Gains but Limited Reach In 2026." Brookings, 19 Aug. 2026, www.brookings.edu/articles/democratic-socialist-candidates-show-gains-but-limited-reach-in-2026/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026."Our Campaigns – DSA National Electoral Commission." Dsausa.Org, 2026, electoral.dsausa.org/our-campaigns/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.Schneid, Rebecca. "Progressives Rack up Primary Wins, Testing Democratic Assumptions Ahead of the Midterms." TIME, Time, 5 Aug. 2026, time.com/article/2026/08/05/progressives-rack-up-primary-wins/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.The Bulwark. James Carville's Midterm Predictions | Bulwark on Sunday. YouTube, 18 Oct. 2026. By Emery Winter Emery Winter is based in Charlotte, North Carolina, and previously worked for TEGNA'S VERIFY national fact-checking team. They enjoy sports and video games. Article Tags