Why is Texas so important? It’s about Senate control – and symbolism

Richmond, Texas | Oct. 26, 2026, 2:31 p.m. ET | 6 min read Lined up outside an event center in Fort Bend County, a few hundred supporters of Texas Attorney General and U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton chat and smile in the cool October sun.Some of those smiles are nervous.“I’m worried,” admits Marlene Keplinger, as she waits to enter the rally in this well-manicured Houston suburb, where Mr. Paxton and his opponent, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, are vying for swing voters. Behind her, John Bickett says he’s worried, too. “Talarico has lots of money. You see him on the TV every five minutes,” he adds.Fort Bend used to be reliably Republican, but as it has grown and diversified, it has become more Democratic. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris narrowly defeated Donald Trump here.When hundreds of Mr. Talarico’s supporters descend on the same venue just 24 hours after the Paxton event, the mood is noticeably more upbeat. “This is a golden opportunity,” says Larry Junek, a retiree and longtime resident. He calls Mr. Talarico “compassionate” and someone who will help restore the role of Congress as a strong check on the presidency. Mr. Junek feels confident that Democrats are on the brink of winning their first statewide race in Texas in more than three decades.“We have a president with ratings in the toilet, and we have the perfect candidate to run against in Ken Paxton,” he adds. A Talarico defeat, he continues, “would be hard to accept.” Henry Gass/The Christian Science MonitorSupporters of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton – from left, Marlene Keplinger, John Bickett, Charles Moore, Beth Bickett, and Kathy McGill – line up to see Mr. Paxton at a rally in the Houston suburb of Richmond, Texas, Oct. 20, 2026. Henry Gass/The Christian Science MonitorLarry Junek (left) and Billy Polk attend a rally for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico in Richmond, Texas, Oct. 21, 2026. It has become a biennial question in Texas: After three decades of Republican Party dominance, will this be the year Texas turns blue? The question keeps getting asked because, in recent elections, like Charlie Brown running toward Lucy holding the football, Texas Democrats have ended up flat on their backs.Except maybe this year is the year. With the Paxton-Talarico contest, Democrats believe they have a unique opportunity to end their losing streak because of a confluence of factors – including Mr. Paxton’s history of political scandals; voter frustration with the economy under President Trump; and Mr. Talarico’s embrace of his Christian faith on the campaign trail. Republicans, meanwhile, are biting their nails over the prospect of suffering an embarrassing defeat in a state that has been the political and ideological heart of modern American conservatism.An unusual yearFor Mr. Paxton, it’s hard to imagine an electoral environment more unfavorable. He has close ties with the president and his endorsement, but Mr. Trump is facing record-low approval ratings. Voters are complaining about economic conditions, particularly high prices for necessities such as gas and groceries.On top of that, Mr. Paxton is an unusually divisive candidate. His 10 years as state attorney general have been punctuated by scandal and allegations of criminality, including indictment for securities fraud and impeachment by the Republican-controlled state House over corruption allegations. (He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.) His wife filed for divorce last year, alleging adultery. Henry Gass/The Christian Science MonitorSate Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to supporters during a campaign rally in Richmond, Texas, Oct. 20, 2026. Mr. Paxton is the Republican nominee to replace Sen. John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate. His victory in the primary this year over more moderate incumbent Sen. John Cornyn symbolized a victory for the president’s MAGA base over the GOP establishment. Yet, to many political observers, the prediction that nominating a controversial candidate such as Mr. Paxton would put an otherwise safe seat in play has so far proved accurate.“Had John Cornyn been nominated, we wouldn’t even be talking about Texas today,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research. Mr. Paxton’s supporters, however, contend that he’s a better fit for Texas. They point to Mr. Paxton’s long record of fighting for conservative causes, including issuing aggressive legal challenges against both the Obama and Biden administrations. The economy, they contend, was worse under former President Joe Biden, and they view Mr. Paxton’s scandals as private matters driven by political animus.Reaching voters in the final daysPolls have consistently shown the race as a dead heat or with Mr. Talarico holding a narrow lead over Mr. Paxton. Both candidates are criss-crossing the state with fast-paced bus tours in the final week of campaigning.In his closing statements to voters, Mr. Talarico has been emphasizing Mr. Paxton’s scandals, which he explicitly ties to voters’ economic concerns.“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” he says. “We are running against the embodiment of [that] crisis.” Antranik Tavitian/ReutersAttendees cheer as James Talarico arrives onstage during a rally in Richmond, Texas, Oct. 21, 2026. Mr. Talarico, a state legislator running for the U.S. Senate, is attempting to become the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas since 1994. Mr. Paxton is framing the election as nothing less than existential.“We’re on a knife’s edge,” he said. “If we lose Texas, we lose America.”The Paxton campaign has focused its closing attacks on some of Mr. Talarico’s controversial past comments, including videos of him saying “God is nonbinary” and that, according to science, there are six biological sexes. The candidate has since walked back such statements. But Republican critics say the comments show Mr. Talarico is more radical than his bipartisan, Christianity-themed rhetoric might suggest. While the polls have given Democrats reason for optimism, the state’s political realities still make Mr. Paxton the slight favorite. Texas’s cities and suburbs have been getting bigger and bluer, but Republicans have been able to rely on strong performances in deep-red rural areas to win statewide elections. That reality is likely to prove true again this year, says Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican political consultant.“We have the votes,” he says. “There are enough Republicans to eke out a victory, even in a tough year for Republicans.”As goes Texas, so goes the GOP?A defeat for Mr. Paxton would not only end the GOP’s decadeslong electoral winning streak here, but it could also determine which party controls the Senate for the final two years of Mr. Trump’s presidency. It would also represent a powerful symbolic defeat in a state that has become the touchstone of Republican America.The clearest indication of the importance of the race is in campaign finance reports. The Paxton-Talarico contest is the most expensive in the country this cycle, with more than $500 million spent on the race as of this month. Elon Musk, whose SpaceX and Tesla companies are based in Texas, has donated $158 million toward efforts to keep the state in Republican hands. Mr. Talarico has outraised Mr. Paxton in small-dollar fundraising and benefited from funding by big Democratic donors such as LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.It might not just be control of the Senate that Republicans are fighting to preserve. Since the early 2000s, the American conservative movement has been closely linked with Texas Republicans. From George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism to the rise of Sen. Ted Cruz and the tea party, to Mr. Paxton and the MAGA era, Texas Republicans like to boast of how American conservatives follow their lead. A prosperous state with light taxation and minimal regulations, Texas can be seen as a blueprint of the Republican vision for the entire country. A victory for Mr. Talarico would thus be a major symbolic defeat, analysts say. Henry Gass/The Christian Science MonitorA message on Ken Paxton's campaign bus reads "Keep Texas, Texas." Some Texas Republicans worry that a win for Mr. Paxton's Democratic opponent, James Talarico, could lead to Texas losing its status as the heart of American conservatism. It could also give Democrats a reason to invest in Texas in the 2028 presidential election, says Mr. Steinhauser, who previously worked for Senator Cornyn. That would further accelerate Texas becoming a truly competitive state electorally.“If Texas goes blue in one or two races this cycle, it will open Pandora’s box for Democrats to go into Texas and not leave,” he says.Waiting in line to see Mr. Paxton earlier this week, Ms. Keplinger recalls her party’s last close call in 2018, when Senator Cruz narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Though the GOP incumbent won, the enthusiasm and turnout that Mr. O’Rourke inspired in this area appeared to help Democrats win every countywide race in Fort Bend County. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. “Conservatives got complacent,” she says. “Hopefully, that doesn’t happen again.”While no Democrat won statewide in 2018, the party enjoyed one of its best elections in decades further down the ballot. It included a statehouse victory for a Central Texas political novice named James Talarico. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. 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