Why is Iran shifting its focus and attacking the Kingdom of Jordan? - analysis

BySETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 19, 2026 19:31Updated: JULY 19, 2026 19:32Iran's regime is rapidly increasing its attacks on the Kingdom of Jordan. On Sunday, the Iranians targeted the southern Jordanian city of Aqaba. Iran also killed US soldiers in Jordan.These attacks appear to be more deadly and more extreme than Iran's attacks in the past. It is not that this is the first time that Iran has attacked Jordan, but that Iran appears to be trying to terrorize the kingdom as well as the US forces that are there.What is the reason for Iran's latest shift in focus?Iran has always decided that when it is attacked, it will strike across the region. Iran has carved out a front line of thousands of miles that stretches from the coast of Lebanon through Iraq and Jordan to the Persian Gulf, and from there to the Gulf of Oman.This is how the Iranian regime operates; it is how Iran seeks to terrorize the Middle East. Iran is sending a message: every time it is attacked, it will not only strike back at one or two places, but the United States and friendly partner countries in the region will have to prepare for attacks across these thousands of miles of front line. It is likely this reasoning that informs the Iranian leadership's thinking regarding the strikes on the Kingdom of Jordan.It should be recalled that Jordan has been a Western ally throughout its existence. It was founded as a British Mandate territory. The kings of Jordan have a lineage that stretches back to what is now Saudi Arabia. In the time of Lawrence of Arabia, the family of the current rulers of Jordan worked with the British against the Ottoman Empire during the First World War.IAF Iron Dome missile intercepts fragment from Iranian ballistic missile fired towards Jordan, July 19, 2026. (credit: VIA WALLA)After the First World War, they built a state in which British officers played a key role in managing and drilling the Jordanian army, at that time called the Arab Legion, to become a competent fighting force. The Jordanians also fought Israel in the 1948 war, Israel's War of Independence. However, the Kingdom of Jordan maintained quiet ties with Israel until the two countries signed a peace deal in 1994.As such, the kingdom has not only had relations with Israel for many years, but it has also been a key friend of the West. It has worked with the United Kingdom throughout its existence, including when the kingdom faced threats from Nasser-era officers in the 1950s and Palestinian terrorist groups in the 1960s and 1970s.Jordan is always in the crosshairs of any potential regional conflagrationCurrently, the Kingdom of Jordan occupies a complex place in the Middle East. It is situated between Israel, Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf. This would seem to put it in a strategically advantageous position because it could play a strategic role. However, the Kingdom of Jordan has always seemed to shy away from playing this outsized role. In fact, the kingdom has often felt that it might be threatened by its larger neighbors or any spillover from conflict.Jordan hosted hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees during the Syrian Civil War. Many of these Syrians had family or clan connections to Jordan. In addition, Jordan, as a monarchy, always worked closely with the Gulf monarchies. However, the Kingdom of Jordan also balanced these relationships by maintaining ties with Saddam Hussein's Iraqi regime.When the US invaded Iraq, Jordan was always concerned that there might be spillover from the insurgency or extremist groups into the kingdom. In fact, the kingdom was threatened by extremist groups, not only from Iraq, but also by Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and others. Therefore, the kingdom has always been very careful to manage its affairs and try not to get involved in regional conflicts, having seen the results of them over the years.\The Kingdom of Jordan cannot always avoid these conflicts, and the recent Iranian attacks have illustrated this challenge. The Iranians are ostensibly targeting US forces in Jordan. It is not the first time Iran has done this: the Iranian-backed proxy group Kata'ib Hezbollah attacked a post called Tower 22 in northeastern Jordan in January 2024, killing three Americans.For this reason, Jordan is always in the crosshairs of any potential regional conflagration. The current Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, is no exception. Iran has sought to spread the conflict all over the region and create numerous new front lines.One of these front lines is in Jordan. Iran appears to believe it has a right to attack US forces there, such as at Tower 22, and potentially strike at the kingdom itself to send a message that Jordan should not host American troops.Jordan is not the only place where Iran is trying to send this message. It is also doing so through attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and especially the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. Iran has carried out hundreds of attacks in Iraq, particularly targeting Kurdish Iranian opposition groups with bases and facilities in the Kurdish region.Iran also recently claimed to target a US garrison in Syria. This garrison, located at Al-Tanf, apparently no longer exists and was evacuated back in February. However, the Iranian regime claimed to target it primarily to show it could strike inside Syria. While it is not entirely clear if the Iranians actually carried out the attack, the messaging is what is important: Iran is trying to put Syria on notice that it can strike there as well using long-range precision ballistic missiles, drones, or other weapons.This should be a major concern for Jordan because these Iranian-backed militias, which are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, exist in large numbers, especially in Iraq's Anbar Province. These groups have positioned themselves close to both the Jordanian and Syrian borders.Indeed, it appears these groups were behind a recent smuggling attempt in which missiles and drones were hidden inside a tanker truck to move them to Syria via the Al-Tanf border crossing. The Syrians busted the smuggling attempt, and the Iranians subsequently claimed to target the Al-Tanf area under the guise of targeting Americans, but they were in fact sending a broader message.Follow us on Google