Why is Daniel Ortega Shutting Nicaragua’s Opposition Out of Elections?

Nicaragua approved a constitutional reform that bars the opposition from participating in elections and extends Daniel Ortega’s term in office, a measure aimed at securing a presidential succession within the family of the octogenarian former guerrilla leader. Ortega and his wife and co-president, Rosario Murillo, tightened their grip further by pushing through the amendment, which closes the door to a political transition after two decades of rule marked by the concentration of power and harsh repression. What was approved? The National Assembly, controlled by the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), voted Tuesday to prohibit “traitors to the homeland,” people linked to attempted coups, or those who call for “military intervention” or “economic blockades” from participating in elections. The couple routinely levels those accusations against all their opponents. Lawmakers also extended the terms of current elected officials and the heads of the Armed Forces from six to seven years. The reform also granted new powers to electoral authorities to dissolve political parties and sanction candidates. If reelected in late 2028, Ortega and Murillo could remain in power until 2036. The reform must be ratified during a second legislative session in January 2027. In practice, it would pave the way for a one-party system controlled by the FSLN. What is the objective? Ortega, 80, and Murillo, 75, tightened their control over society following the 2018 protests, whose repression left more than 300 people dead, according to the United Nations. The co-presidents describe the demonstrations as an attempted coup sponsored by the United States. Thousands of people went into exile following the protests, including opposition leaders, intellectuals, journalists and members of the clergy who were stripped of their nationality after being accused of “treason.” During the 2021 election campaign, Ortega’s main rivals were imprisoned before the vote, leaving virtually no domestic opposition today. Ortega suffers from lupus and kidney problems and has difficulty walking. Most of his children hold key government positions, while opposition figures warn that an internal purge is underway to secure a family succession. Rebecca Bill, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said Ortega and Murillo do not need tougher measures to win elections because the opposition “has already been crushed and democratic institutions destroyed.” “The objective is to ensure there is as little uncertainty as possible about what happens after Ortega. Elections create uncertainty, as do independent institutions and a genuine opposition, which is why they have eliminated all three,” Bill said. Extending their terms would also allow the co-presidents to outlast the current period of pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and postpone any possible negotiations over electoral conditions, according to former Nicaraguan lawmaker Eliseo Núñez. What could the consequences be? The United States on Wednesday urged its partners to sever ties with Nicaragua, arguing that “dictatorships” should not enjoy the political and economic benefits afforded to democracies. Washington, Nicaragua’s largest trading partner, has already imposed sanctions on government figures and is pushing for a meeting of foreign ministers from the Organization of American States (OAS) to consider measures against Managua. The European Union also condemned the amendment before it was approved. “The international community needs to coordinate more effectively and raise the cost of repression in a targeted manner, while avoiding measures that primarily punish ordinary Nicaraguans,” Bill said.