A farmer walks on dry farmland in Shivamogga district, Karnataka, on September 16, 2026. | Photo Credit: S.K. Dinesh/File photo In the summer of 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century took shape in the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a monsoon rainfall deficit of 8% below the average, as was expected in El Niño years. However, by the end of September that year, rainfall levels were nearly normal.This year, a “ferocious” El Niño is taking shape, and is expected to peak only in December. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended nearly 13% below the long-term average of 87 cm. East and Northeast India had their driest season since records began in 1901. Published - November 02, 2026 07:30 am IST
Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon
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