Why Europe Isn’t Ready for NATO 3.0

Excerpt The Trump administration’s anticipated reduction of US forces from Europe hit a reality check last week. Two overlapping missions, one by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow and one by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby to Stuttgart and Brussels, inadvertently exposed potential flaws in the Pentagon’s ongoing retrenchment strategy. While Ratcliffe was in Moscow reportedly to dissuade an expected Russian attack on NATO, Colby was preparing allies for their new role: assuming primary responsibility for deterring the Kremlin with conventional combat power. The timing and purpose of both missions highlight major questions that the transition to “NATO 3.0” has not yet answered. On paper, NATO 3.0 is meant to strengthen Europe’s armed forces after decades of neglect. Announced in February 2026, it closely follows the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy (NDS). Under this plan, the United States will transfer primary responsibility for conventional deterrence to European allies. After shifting away from Europe, Washington will retain its traditional role as the backbone of NATO’s nuclear deterrent. It is a classic retrenchment strategy. This requires regional allies to replace American armored brigade combat teams, logistical enablers, deep-strike capabilities, and supporting infrastructure hubs in Germany and Italy, and all before the Kremlin’s reconstituted forces could exploit any gaps. The catch: Europe may need a generation before it is ready to take the helm, while Russia already benefits from hard-earned lessons in Ukraine and a mobilized defense-industrial base. Inside the Department of Defense, money is the main driver. The NDS anticipates that America’s debt burden will make future defense cuts inevitable; therefore, retrenchment today will keep America solvent tomorrow. One question that the official strategy has not answered, however: under what conditions does this withdrawal from Europe generate vulnerabilities that undermine its intended gains? Ratcliffe’s unannounced trip to Moscow suggests Russia is already preparing to probe the alliance before retrenchment is complete. Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow focused on Russia, Ukraine, and transatlantic relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.