Why buy expensive French tanks when what we need is cheap Irish drones?

The next time the Defence Forces’ plan to buy €1 billion worth of armoured vehicles from France comes up for discussion, somebody should really ask about Leopard tanks. Arguably the best tank in the world, the German-made main battle tank was supposed to be a game changer when, after much hand-wringing, it was supplied to Ukraine in 2023 alongside similar behemoths: the British Challenger and the US Abrams. They were predicted to give Ukraine the upper hand over Russia on the battlefield.They didn’t. What halted the advance of the Russian army and now enforces the stalemate on the battlefield is drones. Lots of them. Cheap and deadly. Made in Ukraine. History is full of examples of unsuccessful generals who made the mistake of fighting the last war. Instead of adjusting to how the nature of conflict is being changed by technology, they just try to do what worked last time, only better. The Russians, who expected to roll over Ukraine in a couple of weeks based on their previous experience, are just the latest example. READ MOREIreland should be careful not to fall into that trap. The Irish Army obviously needs vehicles but seems to have shaped its future role around turning itself into a conventional armoured brigade that can – don’t say it too loudly – fight alongside other European armies in the sort of battle groups that have been potentially rendered obsolete by the conflict in Ukraine. The other task that is envisioned for the Army once it’s tooled up is deployment overseas on UN missions. There has not been a UN deployment authorised since 2011, and the mandate for Unifil – Ireland’s most significant deployment in Lebanon – is not being renewed when it runs out at the end of the year. Not accepting the regrettable but real decline in the global role of the UN is also tantamount to fighting the last war. The real elephant in the room is where are we going to find the soldiers to fight in these new tanks. The Defence Forces simply does not provide an attractive career for many. That might change. Driving tanks and going overseas are the sort of things that professional soldiers like doing.[ Dangers on a train: Russia’s improved drones pose new threat to Ukrainian rail usersOpens in new window ]But the question that nobody seems to want to ask, however, is whether reshaping the Defence Forces around new armoured vehicles is really the most effective and economical way to defend our land and sea borders now that drones and missiles dominate the battlefield. Paradoxically, the neglect of the Defence Forces over the years presents Ireland with a unique opportunity to skip a generation of military technology and create a force able to fulfil this goal at a cost that is realistic. And one that could attract the best and brightest engineering and technological talent. [ ‘Whatever Trump and Putin agree, we’ll fight the invaders’: Inside the dugouts powering Ukraine’s drone warOpens in new window ]Our complete lack of a domestic arms industry means that, unlike our larger European partners, we are not trapped by history. Big countries end up locked into feeding their arms manufacturers in what former US president and D-Day commander Dwight Eisenhower dubbed the military-industrial complex.This includes the French and hence their enthusiasm for selling us tanks. The cost will be enormous. As well as the upfront price, put at about €1 billion, we will be tied into a long-tailed maintenance contract with the French suppliers, which could bring the costs to many multiples of this.Belgium bought 442 similar vehicles for €1.6 billion, but the lifetime cost is put at €14 billion, or €3.6 million per vehicle. It’s a lot of money for something that could be knocked out by a drone costing a couple of hundred euro. The potential for marine drones to help police the 880,000sq km of seabed under Ireland’s jurisdiction, including vital submarine cables, is equally obvious for a Naval Service that faces real difficulties crewing its ships. What adds to the paradox is that we already have a nascent drone industry, but seem determined to stamp it out. Manna Aero, the best-known Irish drone-maker, has abandoned attempts to set up a drone-based delivery service here, citing the lack of a national drone strategy. This was after it was refused planning permission by Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council for a drone delivery hub. The main issue was concern over the intrusive nature of drones, which will remain a significant issue for drone deliveries in urban areas. Not so much on battlefields. [ Manna’s Bobby Healy: ‘We’ve worked through real challenges along the way’Opens in new window ]Manna is a relatively small player, but its technological abilities are well regarded. It is not in the military drone space and has expressed no interest in the area publicly. To date, it has raised something north of €100 million. But as the Ukraine war has shown, the technology is fundamentally dual-use. Manna shows what can be achieved. The question as to whether Ireland’s security would be better served by investing €14 billion into making our own air and sea drones is one well worth asking before signing a cheque for new tanks.