Why 2026 is an unusually tricky year for polls

Quarterly Update A message from Pew Research Center President Michael Dimock · Subscribe ↗ Why the 2026 midterms will be uniquely difficult for polls and their consumers Polls are again under scrutiny, with some rushing in to proclaim their demise. But it isn’t that polls have gotten worse. Rather, a mix of factors is creating unprecedented challenges for polling and for the public trying to understand it. From the perennial challenges that are consistently misunderstood to slow-growing issues that have compounded these challenges over the past decade, it’s become harder for the public to know which pollsters to trust. But add in three new wild cards this year, and the picture gets even murkier. First, we’re seeing more completely “synthetic surveys” – polls that purport to measure public opinion, but that don’t actually survey humans. Instead, they use artificial intelligence to model what people would say. Our research on synthetic surveys finds they are not reliable substitutes for public opinion. Separately, we’ve also seen polls being shared that are entirely fabricated without disclosure. Second, uncertainty about voting mechanics, such as mail-in ballots, changing election laws in some states, and even concerns about voter intimidation could influence turnout in hard-to-model ways. Widespread midcycle redistricting has scrambled voters’ awareness of who’s on their ballots. And the 2026 race has fewer incumbents on the ballot than any general election since 1992. Third, the issues of AI and data centers have swelled into the public dialogue but haven’t yet become completely polarized by party. This makes the impact of AI on elections more dependent on local conditions (such as planned or existing data centers nearby) and what candidates are saying about the issue. In short, predicting who will vote has always been hard in lower-turnout elections, it’s become more challenging over time, and 2026 has a swirl of unknowns compounding the challenge – a perfect storm ripe for confusion. Any one of these factors could yield surprises that are impossible to predict, even for the highest quality polls. So what can you do to make sense of the deluge of polls this cycle? To start, don’t put too much stock in a single poll when thinking about election outcomes, and be wary of outliers. Ask smart questions of the polls you do consider: Who conducted the poll? Does the organization have a good track record and reputation? Do they have a dog in the fight? Can you be sure the poll is surveying real humans? If so, which ones? Does the organization readily share information about its questions and methodology? Transparency is not the same as quality, but a lack of transparency is certainly a red flag. Use polls for what they’re best at: Their purpose is to help us understand the mood of the country, the issues on the public’s mind, and what’s dividing and uniting people – in short, what the election is likely going to mean. Don’t expect polls to do what they cannot, especially this year. Lastly, don’t let a bad poll destroy your trust in polling altogether. Rigorous polls are still the best way to understand what the public thinks and believes even if they don’t always accurately predict primaries and midterms. Without the public voice in polls, we’re left only with politicians claiming to speak for us. This is an abbreviated version of an op-ed originally published in The Hill on Oct. 14. All my best, Michael DimockPresident, Pew Research Center